Who on Labour's List would make it back in on current polling?

I’m going to do a Farrar. I’m going to steal one of his posts and charts and then comment as if it is original work.

Farrar leaves out a couple of points assuming that Labour hold their seats.

Dalziel will win Christchurch East
Robertson will win Manukau East

So let’s look at who makes it back and who doesn’t.

At 29.5% of the vote the following scum list MPs make it back into parliament.

Rank and Name Effective Rank Party Vote Needed
4. David Parker 1 18%
7. Maryan Street 2 19%
10. Sue Moroney 3 20%
11. Charles Chauvel 4 21%
13. Jacinda Ardern 5 21%
15. Andrew Little 6 22%
16. Shane Jones 7 23%
18. Darien Fenton 8 24%
19. Moana Mackey 9 25%
20. Rajen Prasad 10 25%
21. Raymond Huo 11 26%
22. Carol Beaumont 12 27%
23. Kelvin Davis 13 28%
24. Carmel Sepuloni 14 29%
25. Rick Barker 15 29%

So only one new Labour List MP, Andrew Little. Everyone else misses out.

Tomorrow will feature a post on which Labour constituency seats are vulnerable at 29.5%. There will be some electorate MPs with small majorities with very loose bowels.

Right now if you are a list MP and thinking of keeping Phil Goff as leader you are literally hugging not only Phil’s corpse but your own. If Phil Goff starts plumbing the depths that Bill English did then Labour’s much vaunted next Prime Minister is seriously at risk.

Even though Andrew Little is outside caucus he will be backing a coup by David Cunliffe just so he can try to make it into parliament.


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  • Jeez there’s a helluvalot of deadwood on that list Whale. For a really good clean out they’ll need to drop to that magic English number.

  • abjv

    I’d back Chauvel to win his seat. Shouldn’t be on this list. Bye bye Rick Barker at present polling.

    Another thought is if they go as low as 19% then no-one from the list gets on. Removes the option of leaning on a non-performing list MP to quit, to allow the next one on the list (or the one 4th next) to come in.

    Realistically I’m expecting Labour at about 25% unless they pull something spectacular out of the bag (and a low turnout rather than mass exodus to vote for others). And the Greens somewhere north of 12% provided they can stay on theme between now and the election.