Can John Key match Keith Holyoake?

John Key is the most popular PM since polling began, and he now has the chance to build a career as enduring as Keith Holyoake‘s. Kiwi Keith won the elections in 1960, 1963, 1966 and 1969 before standing down on his own terms in early 1972.

Labour’s inept and crippled campaign manager, excessive dead wood and shambolic first term in opposition mean Key is going to win this election easily. Unless Labour radically cut out the dead wood they will continue to struggle through the next term, and without a strong leader it is hard to imagine them rebuilding to achieve parity with Key in 2014.

The problem for Key is the electoral system. He might be able to win a majority in 2011 but in 2014 Labour can’t be expected to be as inept, and some of National’s own inept ministers will cause the National vote to fall. National’s support parties, ACT and the Maori Party, look like being greatly diminished in 2014 and may not make it back into parliament. John Key has hoovered up so much support from other parties that only Labour and the Greens looks like having any strength and even for them it is a race between the two to see who will command the opposition after the election. There is a remote chance that the Greens may get close to out polling Labour.

By 2014 John Key could still be a very popular Prime Minister and still poll well ahead of Labour. His problem, and the thing that will affect his legacy, is that under MMP he will not have coalition partners, so Labour and the Greens could easily take power.


Do you want:

  • Ad-free access?
  • Access to our very popular daily crossword?
  • Access to daily sudoku?
  • Access to Incite Politics magazine articles?
  • Access to podcasts?
  • Access to political polls?

Our subscribers’ financial support is the reason why we have been able to offer our latest service; Audio blogs. 

Click Here  to support us and watch the number of services grow.

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

32%