Can National win 50% of the Vote?

Labour are doing their level best to give National 50% of the vote on November the 26th, which is a little unusual as Labour are not often this helpful. Labour and history are usually against National, but with the drone Goff leading and the crippled campaign managers underpants stealing strategy, National are only up against history.

Nat Lab
1951 54% 45.8%
1954 44.3% 44.1%
1957 44.2% 48.3%
1960 47.6% 43.4%
1963 47.1% 43.7%
1966 43.6% 41.4%
1969 45.20% 44.2%
1972 41.5% 48.4%
1975 47.6% 39.6%
1978 39.80% 40.4%
1981 38.80 39%
1984 35.90% 43%
1987 44% 48%
1990 47.82% 35.14%
1993 35.05% 34.68
1996 33.87% 28.19%
1999 30.5% 38.74%
2002 20.93% 41.26%
2005 39.10% 41.1%
2008 44.93% 33.99%

So the odds of National getting to 50%, or even 48% assuming vote wastage, is unlikely. This is not too much of a problem in 2011, but it does become a problem if ACT and the Maori Party fail, and National have no coalition partners.

[UPDATE: Added links and fixed errors in table. Thank you commenters]


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

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