How did the predictions stack up?

On Friday I made up a list of predictions for National’s conference. Let’s see how I did.

  • The media will com­plain about it being stage man­aged and scripted. [1 point]

TV3 reported:

It was a controlled, contrived and heavily choreographed conference where the party faithful are warning against what they call complacency, but others might call arrogance.

  • There will be no con­tro­versy. Unless some fool tries to throw out accred­ited media at inap­pro­pri­ate times. [0.5 points]

Some fool tried, gutless as usual, instead sent in the flunkies, the fool was told to FRO. Controversy was avoided through my new found patience and even disposition.

  • Some old duf­fer will want remits debated from the floor. [0.5 points]

Haven’t had this one conformed yet. There were mutterings though.

  • Most of the del­e­gates will be over 60, and many over 70, yet no one will be talk­ing about how to bring the 30–40 year olds into the party so it sur­vives when the rest of the mem­ber­ship dies. [0.5 points]

I got this one wrong, though it was embarrassing and there were many comments at the lengthy list of obituaries that were read out. it took some considerable time, so perhaps that was why the average age of the delegates was lower, because the older ones had pegged out. The upside is that if National spends 30 minutes reading obituaries, imagine how long NZ First must take.

  • Despite the National Party web site say­ing fundrais­ing is “crit­i­cal” every­one will talk about how the pres­i­dent has done a fan­tas­tic job with­out ever say­ing how much of his fundrais­ing bud­get he has met and how much of the fundrais­ing bud­get has been raised through the Vic­tory Fund “tax” on electorates. [1 point]

I was sick just a little bit in my mouth every time someone praised up Peter Goodfellow. This prediction definitely came true.

  • The Young Nats will be hailed as the sav­iours of the party even though they are doing their level best to prove Young Nats look like either weasels or meerkats and none will make it into cau­cus in the future. [1 point]

The young nats presented a report that showed membership is at all time highs. Given this report is similar to the last few I think it is safe to assume that the Young Nats now number about 67,000 members and are growing strongly.

  • A group of hip­pies, bludgers and other mal­con­tents will protest, and National will not tell them all to go and have a good wash, dress nicely and come back when they learn some manners. [0.5 points]

Disappointing this prediction. I was so certain of it. One crusty old loser and 15 smelly students hardly constitutes a protest. National didn’t confront them, they ignored them so at least part came true.

  • The new media will pro­vide far bet­ter cov­er­age than the main­stream media. [1 point]

Yep, slaughtered them. Even the MSM tweets were as lame as Trevor Mallard. Apart from Pedro Gower who was doing his level best to upset someone the main stream media were pretty off the mark.

  • Kees Keizer will not tape Bill Eng­lish say­ing any­thing stu­pid this year, because he won’t be allowed in. Bill will likely say some­thing stu­pid, but secu­rity will have improved and no one will be able to tape it. [1 point]

Security was improved, and obvious. Bill didn’t say anything stupid, but he was boring.

  • Fan­tas­tic New Can­di­dates will include many that are over fifty, one that looks like a weasel and prob­a­bly is one, and very few that look like front bench material. [1 point]

Check.

  • Can­di­dates col­lege will be lauded for bring­ing through all this tal­ent when it met only twice last year and once this year, and no one will ask why Rod­ney, North Shore and Coro­man­del did not have a good local can­di­date to run for National. [1 point]

Check

  • No one will ask what John Key is doing to ensure the strength of the National Party after he leaves. [1 point]

Not a word

  • There will be a lot of gloat­ing at how inept Labour are, and what a dick­head their cam­paign man­ager is, and how Phil Goff is use­less, with­out acknowl­edg­ing who it was that made them look inept, a dick­head and useless. [0.5 points]

Correct, though there were a few private chats that took place and one surprising comments about “doing God’s work” from an unlikely cabinet minister, who on reflection is still leading my politician of the week tally.

  • The MSM will mer­ci­lessly mock National for their stu­pid 1930s dress up dinner. [1 point]

Chris Trotter delivered a good kicking on Friday.

  • All in all it will be a self con­grat­u­la­tory, smug love fest that would make an onanists con­ven­tion look like an exer­cise in self loathing, or a soppy episode of the Love Boat look like a snuff movie.

Very self congratulatory, especially of the sterling efforts of Peter Goodfellow. [1 point]

I score myself at a solid 11.5 points out of a possible 15.

 


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story.  And when he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet.   Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet, and as a result he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist that takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him.  But you can’t ignore him.

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