How did the predictions stack up?

On Friday I made up a list of predictions for National’s conference. Let’s see how I did.

  • The media will com­plain about it being stage man­aged and scripted. [1 point]

TV3 reported:

It was a controlled, contrived and heavily choreographed conference where the party faithful are warning against what they call complacency, but others might call arrogance.

  • There will be no con­tro­versy. Unless some fool tries to throw out accred­ited media at inap­pro­pri­ate times. [0.5 points]

Some fool tried, gutless as usual, instead sent in the flunkies, the fool was told to FRO. Controversy was avoided through my new found patience and even disposition.

  • Some old duf­fer will want remits debated from the floor. [0.5 points]

Haven’t had this one conformed yet. There were mutterings though.

  • Most of the del­e­gates will be over 60, and many over 70, yet no one will be talk­ing about how to bring the 30–40 year olds into the party so it sur­vives when the rest of the mem­ber­ship dies. [0.5 points]

I got this one wrong, though it was embarrassing and there were many comments at the lengthy list of obituaries that were read out. it took some considerable time, so perhaps that was why the average age of the delegates was lower, because the older ones had pegged out. The upside is that if National spends 30 minutes reading obituaries, imagine how long NZ First must take.

  • Despite the National Party web site say­ing fundrais­ing is “crit­i­cal” every­one will talk about how the pres­i­dent has done a fan­tas­tic job with­out ever say­ing how much of his fundrais­ing bud­get he has met and how much of the fundrais­ing bud­get has been raised through the Vic­tory Fund “tax” on electorates. [1 point]

I was sick just a little bit in my mouth every time someone praised up Peter Goodfellow. This prediction definitely came true.

  • The Young Nats will be hailed as the sav­iours of the party even though they are doing their level best to prove Young Nats look like either weasels or meerkats and none will make it into cau­cus in the future. [1 point]

The young nats presented a report that showed membership is at all time highs. Given this report is similar to the last few I think it is safe to assume that the Young Nats now number about 67,000 members and are growing strongly.

  • A group of hip­pies, bludgers and other mal­con­tents will protest, and National will not tell them all to go and have a good wash, dress nicely and come back when they learn some manners. [0.5 points]

Disappointing this prediction. I was so certain of it. One crusty old loser and 15 smelly students hardly constitutes a protest. National didn’t confront them, they ignored them so at least part came true.

  • The new media will pro­vide far bet­ter cov­er­age than the main­stream media. [1 point]

Yep, slaughtered them. Even the MSM tweets were as lame as Trevor Mallard. Apart from Pedro Gower who was doing his level best to upset someone the main stream media were pretty off the mark.

  • Kees Keizer will not tape Bill Eng­lish say­ing any­thing stu­pid this year, because he won’t be allowed in. Bill will likely say some­thing stu­pid, but secu­rity will have improved and no one will be able to tape it. [1 point]

Security was improved, and obvious. Bill didn’t say anything stupid, but he was boring.

  • Fan­tas­tic New Can­di­dates will include many that are over fifty, one that looks like a weasel and prob­a­bly is one, and very few that look like front bench material. [1 point]

Check.

  • Can­di­dates col­lege will be lauded for bring­ing through all this tal­ent when it met only twice last year and once this year, and no one will ask why Rod­ney, North Shore and Coro­man­del did not have a good local can­di­date to run for National. [1 point]

Check

  • No one will ask what John Key is doing to ensure the strength of the National Party after he leaves. [1 point]

Not a word

  • There will be a lot of gloat­ing at how inept Labour are, and what a dick­head their cam­paign man­ager is, and how Phil Goff is use­less, with­out acknowl­edg­ing who it was that made them look inept, a dick­head and useless. [0.5 points]

Correct, though there were a few private chats that took place and one surprising comments about “doing God’s work” from an unlikely cabinet minister, who on reflection is still leading my politician of the week tally.

  • The MSM will mer­ci­lessly mock National for their stu­pid 1930s dress up dinner. [1 point]

Chris Trotter delivered a good kicking on Friday.

  • All in all it will be a self con­grat­u­la­tory, smug love fest that would make an onanists con­ven­tion look like an exer­cise in self loathing, or a soppy episode of the Love Boat look like a snuff movie.

Very self congratulatory, especially of the sterling efforts of Peter Goodfellow. [1 point]

I score myself at a solid 11.5 points out of a possible 15.

 

 


THANK YOU for being a subscriber. Because of you Whaleoil is going from strength to strength. It is a little known fact that Whaleoil subscribers are better in bed, good looking and highly intelligent. Sometimes all at once! Please Click Here Now to subscribe to an ad-free Whaleoil.

  • Good grief Cam, a miss is a miss. Not a great self assessment. ;)

    9 out 15 if generous, 8 if we’re neutral and 7 if we’re nasty.

    heh

  • peterwn

    After what Whale dished out to Peter Goodfellow last year, it is only human that he would become somewhat emotional when he discovered that Whale was in the media contngent at the Conference. In any case it would have been unwise for top people in the party to attempt their own ejections, as Gerry Brownlee found out the hard way some years ago. Far better to leave the dirty work to the meerkats.

    • Weasels, Peter, not meerkats. Gut-less weasels at that.

      The National party used to be about freedom of ideas not mindless fore-lock tugging in blind deference. I call things as I seem them. Useless leaders are useless leaders and must not be tolerated.

  • Gary

    I’d agree with Petal – 9 out of 15 is a bit fairer… It was good to see you at the conference though Cam and I think many delegates would agree, The whole event was less stage-managed and the organisers certainly appeared to have taken notice of delegate’s desires to have more opportunities to comment and question the various speakers. Your part in that is appreciated Cam!

  • jabba

    I note that Labour MP’s are using the smug word recently

38%