Labour can't win – Matt McCarten

Political commentator and tax cheat Matt McCarten reckons Labour can’t win. Not now, not with Phil Goff, not for several cycles.

National: The only question is whether they can rule alone or will need a coalition partner.¬†Anything less than 46 per cent of the vote will be seen as a defeat for Key. If he gets more than 50 per cent he’s the new Keith Holyoake and will remain Prime Minister for as long as he likes.

Labour: Phil Goff’s people are spinning that they could get 38 per cent.

Even if they got to 35 per cent he deserves another shot. Labour’s problem is that voters have already made up their minds about the next election. The danger is that Labour’s vote could collapse to fewer than 30 per cent, which would mean they’d be out of power for at least a couple of terms.

He is right about the voters. Labour’s restless back-bench and at risk MPs are talking, even I am hearing the dis-content.

Labour continues to cling to dreams and Matt McCarten explains one such dream:

In three months the World Cup will be over and all focus will be on the other competition this year – the general election.

A mate of mine was confidently predicting to me that if the All Blacks lost, Prime Minister John Key was toast. I’ve heard this sort of crystal ball gazing in every election.

Labour will need a lot more than an All Black loss to dent Key’s chances of re-election.

They’d need our rugby team knocked out in the first round; followed by mayhem on a scale of this week’s English riots; unemployment to soar past 10 per cent; and interest rates to go through the roof.

Even then I suspect none of it would stick to Key.

I’ve have long said this, in much cruder terms. Basically John Key could walk an old nana and her zimmer frame into the middle of Queen Street and shoot her in the back of the head in front of a lunchtime crowd and they would all say Clayton Weatherstone did it, and the media would report that Mark Hotchin was implicated.



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  • Of course McCarten would say this. He is involved in another political party in direct competition with Labour and he obviously has a vested interest in lessening Labour support. Why anyone would give his views about Labour’s chances credence, or the views of any other mouthpieces for alternative parties about Labour’s chances, is beyond me.

  • Nick K

    I agree with micky. McCarten’s Mana Party and Labour are both to the extreme Left of the spectrum and are competing for the same votes. They both have extreme positions. The battle for the extreme left vote will be interesting to watch this year.

  • TitanUranus

    The only way to get unemployment over 10% ,would be to hand over to Lairbore before this coming election,after all it is one of their election promises.

  • Oh come on Greg. The only two people who think Liarbore has a snowball’s chance in hell come November are you and Phil Goff.

    FFS you wimps should have rolled Goff weeks ago. You only have somewhere around 50 days to do it now, and I don’t see a Tony Abbott anywhere in your line-up. Sort your bloody house out so you can start taking the left back from the wet pinkos in National. Force bloody Key to the right FFS, because at the moment he’s stolen your lunch money and is using it to buy your friends.

    McCarten should be in gaol for tax evasion rather than spouting his communist drivel all over the pages of the dead tree press, but on this one point he’s spot on.

  • thor42

    I still wish that Key had called the election *before* the World Cup.
    It just seems silly to take the ***unnecessary risk*** of an All Black choke putting people in a grumpy mood come election day.
    Unnecessary and clumsy.

    • gazzaw

      I am inclined to agree but maybe Key is using some reverse psychology and thinking that if the ABs don’t pull it off the country is far less likely to go for a double dose of misery and vote in a Goof-led coalition of Wussel, Tariana & Winston with Hone sitting on the crossbenches accompanied by Minto, Sykes, Bradford & McCarten.

  • Hard1

    Matt may be smart , but he is just neatly summarising WO and others whilst idealogically stuck back in the dreamland of the NZ socialist utopia of the ’70’s , all union exports and lot’s of union construction , stop works and pamphlets at the railway station , functions at the Soviet Embassy .
    Either out of true empathy for the downtrodden , or a personal desire for influence and power , he has joined the Mana ‘castaway’ party to further the Muru of the minority , claiming land and assets to rent out , to then sit back much like the indigenous Fijians and trough it out . So I propose a voluntary salary cap on all Mana Party employees as a show of faith to their electoral base . Double the dole , Matt , plus an old banger ? Or would more be ‘better’ ? Feel the Love .

  • Chris

    Nick K – I have seen little so stupid as someone saying Labour is to “the extreme left of the spectrum”. The reason they’re in the crap now is because they’ve abandoned their traditional basis for existing and have marched off trying to compete for the centre-right vote. This has been the case for years, including during Clark’s nine years which were supposed to be different after apologising for losing their way under Rogernomics. Labour’s language might’ve changed and they introduced a few pet policies like the civil union legislation and similar (which is neither right or left these days anyway) but essentially stayed centre-right, trotting out the same policies National were working on before 1999, fed to them by the same officials but called something else, and which Labour politicians accepted because essentially they were all too thick to know the difference. This is still their problem today because they’re not giving voters a real chance to weigh things up properly. They need to reclaim their traditional policy positions and start acting like an opposition. If the right-wingers in Labour don’t like it then they can fuck off and join ACT. Goff and his idiot mates look stupid because they stand for nothing, and just attract derision and scorn, which they deserve every bit of, of course. To say they’re anywhere near “left of the spectrum” is simply untrue and a completely naive analysis.