National Leadership – The Longer Term Prospects

The long term is harder to predict as MPs self destruct through drinking, rooting and turning out to be useless. The longer term contenders have very safe blue seats or solid list places, so they will be around when National is next in Government. In no particular order, and without the details of other posts:

Amy Adams – Along with Hekia Parata the stand out of the 2008 intake. Done a good job in her areas of responsibility and has received promotions based on merit not gender. Gender will help make the step up into cabinet but not into leadership. Politically naïve which will likely handicap her, with her naivety including telling people she only likes governing, not campaigning, and what role other MPs will play in her regime.

Hekia Parata – Came into caucus a star who would have been in Parliament in 2002 if Bill English hadn’t been so useless. Apparently doing well as a cabinet minister. Probably too much of a liberal elite, and too hot a temper to make it to leader. Hekia will find it hard to get caucus to vote for her. Also doesn’t have a seat so is at the mercy of the party and the leader for her seat.

Simon Bridges – Safe blue seat, good profile and good background. Seriously good intellect and known to be principled rather than poll driven. Needs to prove the rumours about his lack of work ethic are not true by working his guts out doing the boring, mechanical work in select committee or he will end up being regarded like Shane Jones before the porno stuff came out. All the talent in the world but maybe not the mongrel to get to the top.

The likely 2011 intake is pretty disappointing, with Barry, Simpson and McKelvie too old to be serious contenders for the leadership before their merits are considered. Other than the old three, only Sabin and Mitchell are guaranteed seats, and the others will struggle to hold seats when National inevitably falls in popularity. Mark Mitchell is the man to watch among the 2011 intake.


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  • mediatart

    What you have forgotten , the long road via the back benches is so very … Labour party!

    Welcome Whale to 2010 and beyond. They will bring in top tier cabinet level from the private sector. Heard of Don Brash? heard of John Key, heard of Stephen Joyce.
    The party leadership has seen the damage stalwarts like English Brownlee Smith can do to the brand.
    In fact those with their eyes open like Power and so on arent going to waste another 10 years to be bridesmaids.

    Once the party list is announced when the house has practically closed shop for the RWC you will find people like Ralph Norris way up there and quite a few deadwood at number 50 +.

    Thats also what will end it for your mate JLR, too young and no business sucess.
    Amy Adams if shes smart will get out after 9 years along with Bridges.

    As you rightly pointed Hekia was advanced past the usual first promotion to plain Minister outside cabinet because of her…. birth canal and she wasnt an anglo saxon

  • Chris

    God only knows why national regards Amy Adams as having anything to offer. She’s as thick as two short planks.

  • Shoot, so that’s that one suopepss.