National – The natural party of opposition, ctd

iPredict now has Shane Jones beating Pita Sharples.

For the first time, Labour’s Shane Jones is forecast to win Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples’ Tamaki-Makaurau seat, according to this week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict.  As a result, the Maori Party is expected to hold just two seats, the same number of MPs as the Mana Party is forecast to secure.

I do not believe Jones will win, as Sharples has done the hard yards in the electorate over many decades. Jones has worked for Maori, but not in the same way. He was at the top end of town in board meetings while Sharples was on the marae fighting for the little guy. This will count a lot for Sharples on election day.

The Tamaki-Makaurau prediction however reinforces my view that under MMP National will lose all its coalition partners and become the Natural Party of Opposition. Readers who see ACT or the Maori Party expanding their vote over the next few cycles should write why they believe this will happen in the comments section.


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  • The sad thing is if National would dump the leftists in their midst (admittedly, pretty-much ALL of the current caucus, starting with socialist John Key) and revert to being the true Conservative party they were established to be, they likely wouldn’t need to rely on half-baked “coalition” partners comprised of either basket-case Liberals (ACT) or radical, seditious separatists (Apartheid) – there would be a real political dichotomy in New Zealand, rather than just two sides of the leftist coin. The current National Party is a disgrace to the party’s founders, and for that I blame both the party hierarchy over the past 35 years, and Labour for being so damn bad at defending their territory. What National needs is a strong leader in the Holland mould, but sadly I don’t see one of those anywhere in the current caucus.

  • George

    I have made the comment on another post that ACT will likely poll on election day higher that the opinion polls leading up to the election based on the fact that, except for the 2005 election, they have always polled higher than previous opinion polls reflect. This is likely due to the possibility that opinion polls don’t include a broad enough sample and secondly that minor parties don’t normally get much attention to their policy until the last few weeks of the election.

    There is also a trend that the leading party in the opinion polls don’t normally do as well on election day.

    ACT has always been written off at election time but have always (to-date) managed to get back in. Based on current opinion polls I would predict ACT polling 4 – 4.5% on election day. Only time will tell.

  • Apolonia

    The party to watch over the next few years will be the Conservative party because they appeal to a disinfranchised portion of the electorate that are not represented by either red Labour or blue Labour, nor any of the current parties in NZ politics.

    • I sure hope you’re right, Apolonia, but they won’t be a force until at least 2014, and I fear what the corrupt Key administration will do to New Zealand following the 2011 election, particularly in the areas of constitutional reform and Maorification.

  • thor42

    I’m hoping that the STV voting system gets chosen at the referendum. If it does, that would be a big help to the Nats, IMO.
    For example, if in my electorate (“constituency” under STV) there were National, ACT, Libertarianz and Conservative candidates standing, I’d be able to vote for all four of them. Ok, it’s true that the leftie pinkos could do the same with (say) Labour, Greens and Mana. However, I still think that STV would be a better system for the Nats than MMP.