National – the Natural Party of Opposition

Whaleoil, the right-wing blogger, has been warning National that it risks just such a defeat. Under MMP, he shrieks, National could become “the natural party of opposition.”

Hubbard picks up on this in the Sunday Star Times, though he misses the point. This election is a forgone conclusion. It is every election from now on that National will not be able to win with if MMP is retained.

Under MMP National need coalition partners. It is running out of them fast, with the Maori Party and ACT looking doomed. New Zealand First is gone, and no party has made it into parliament without a sitting MP defecting from another party since MMP began in 1996.

This leaves National with the near impossible task of regularly winning 48 to 49% of the vote to become government.

John Key - The last National Prime Minister???

National are being strategically stupid on this referendum. They do not want the referendum to mess up their message for now, without thinking about what happens in the future. They are saying the party will not take a position, yet individual MPs can. Labour and the Greens are strategically smart, they are firmly in the pro MMP camp, guaranteeing them long periods in government in the future.

With this strategy is is highly likely that John Key will become known not for what he has achieved but rather as the “The Last National Prime Minister“.


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

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