What Colin Craig Needs to do to win

The raw numbers are pretty simple. For Colin Craig to take the Conservative Party into parliament he either needs to win a seat or about 120,000 votes.

To win a seat will require between 12000 and 15000 votes. The seats that Colin could consider are Epsom, North Shore and East Coast Bays.

Epsom would be exceptionally tough, as Banksie is a popular and well known man there, and very well connected. The advantage in Epsom is that the vote might be split and Colin would only have to win 12000 votes to win, as Dunne did in Ohariu. It would be a surprise to see iPredict rating Colin higher than Banksie, and this is likely to be reflected in the polls. This blog believes Epsom would be a very difficult seat for Colin to win.

North Shore and East Coast Bays are very safe National seats. This doesn’t mean an engaging man like Colin Craig can’t win them, it just makes it tough. Maggie Barry will be likely to work her guts out in North Shore as it is her first campaign, and she is not known to shirk hard work. Maggie will have good name recognition and high favourability ratings, making her a formidable opponent.

That leaves East Coast Bays, where National’s monopoly with Murray McCully has held over it since 1987. Murray is not known as a good local campaigner, and has done little in the electorate. He has let his electorate operation run down to nothing, and he has only a skeleton team on his campaign committee. Colin mobilising a huge base of volunteers and running a very professional campaign in East Coast Bays is probably his best bet of gaining a seat.

The advantage a minor party has over a National candidate is that they can exploit an anomaly in the electoral law and spend a huge amount on Party Vote in the electorate. Murray would be restricted to his $25000, which Colin could match promoting himself, and then he could spend huge amounts of Party Vote spend on the electorate campaign.

Colin can also make a nice contrast between himself and Murray. Colin is a clean cut, decent, friendly family man. Murray is a jaded roue who’s passion for the finer things in life, with an emphasis on wine and women, tend to override his potential for being liked.

Tomorrow we will consider the Party Vote and what the Conservative Party will need to do to get to the 5% threshold.

 


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  • abjv

    Murray will get in on the list. I also note that EC Bays had returned unexpected MPs in the past.

    (Unless of course the intention is just to spike John Banks/ACT: if Banksie doesn’t win Epsom then that’s ACT gone. ACT is relying on the country believing they have Epsom ‘in the bag’ so a party vote for them isn’t wasted)

  • paranormal

    One other electorate that Colin could win, if he had enough time and energy, is Pakuranga. It’s very similar to East Coast Bays in history and demographics. It also has an MP that some in the electorate may see as tired and will be in Parliament on the list anyway.

    • thor42

      Agreed. Pakuranga and East Coast Bays are definite “could-wins”.

  • ltchop

    Anything is possible in politics – if a candidate is prepared to put in the hard yards and run a smart campaign and prime to get their vote out then frankly any result is possible.
    I think ACT may get a big surprise in Epsom if anyone really plans a smart campaign – lots of ground work time lost however – such campaign take a good 18 months in the cooking to get to Wha’il’s numbers – me thinks the time for an upset may have past – but Brash plays a dangerous games asumming that electorate will play his game – nobody likes to be taken for granted.

  • Nick K

    Paul Adams thought he could win ECB too. And he was/is a conservative christian.

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