Which Parties will be in Parliament after the 2014 Elections?

I have run a series of posts on who will be in Parliament in 2014, this summarises it:

Guaranteed in Parliament

National – Major Party, guaranteed
Labour – Major Party, guaranteed
Greens – Looney fringe party, guaranteed due to the high number of looney fringe voters

Perhaps in Parliament

Maori Party – One Seat, maybe a list seat if Sharples and Turia retire
ACT – Dying, maybe Banksie will keep Epsom if he can be bothered with politics, and maybe one or two list seats.
United Future – Dunne has to go, he has been there since 1984
Mana – Hone will probably hang around like a bad smell

Other Parties

New Zealand First:  2014 Winston will have decomposed further, and more of his members will be dead. Not likely
Conservative Party: Very tough if it doesn’t get in this time, and that looks like a long shot

All this points to a very difficult equation for National to hold power. National will not be able to maintain its 48% target to win a majority as people will get sick of Key over time as they get sick of all leaders and governments. Labour cannot continue to be as hopelessly inept when they clean out the plonkers like Goff and Mallard and King and Dalziel. The Greens will maintain their looney voter base.

John Key could end up being a popular Prime Minister, and with the largest party in the house, but no coalition partners, or not enough coalition partners to form a government. So a grey man like Parker, or an arrogant prick like Cunliffe could be Prime Minister while National rage from the opposition benches.

Tomorrow I will post some tables showing numbers that National will need to keep in power in 2014.

 


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  • Apolonia

    2014 is a long way from here.If you look at what happens in Australia you get a picture of what NZ’s future political landscape may look like. In the left corner you have Labour as well as the Green’s and the Democrats(c.f our Labour ,Greens and Mana/Alliance).
    On the right in Australia you have the Liberals and the socially conservative National party. That would compare to our National party and a socially conservative party such as the newly formed Conservative party. It will be interesting to watch Colin Craig’s progress over the next few months.

    • His progress will be nowhere. He hasn’t got proper advice and he thinks he can buy coverage, but he obviously hasn’t read the Electoral Act regarding TV advertising at least. The incumbent parties have a nice little rot going there.

      • Apolonia

        TV advertising is only one form of advertising. There are other media opportunities such as print,direct mail,internet and billboards. Also local candidates can promote themselves on radio. Besides the police don’t enforce the electoral act, that’s why Helen and her gang of thieves stole $800,000 of taxpayers money and exceeded their spending limit by $400,000 in the 2005 election.
        Because of Nationals betrayal of the NZ people over the anti-smacking,ETS and foreshore and seabed laws a void exists in the political spectrum, for a party like the Conservatives.

  • thor42

    Agreed that 2014 will be tough for National. I think they will eventually be helped if STV-voting comes in, but (IIRC) the earliest date for a new system (whatever it may be) is 2017. Unfortunately. STV would *surely* get a few Act MPs in the House – all they’d have to do is come second to a National MP in one of the “multi-MP constituencies”, and I’m sure they could manage that.
    What could help the Nats win in 2014? I reckon that if they took a chainsaw to the welfare system, then that would get a good response. Voters are now **ready** for welfare to be tackled. Now is the time. As part of that, the Nats should (IMO, MUST) tackle national super as well, raising the eligibility age at the very least.
    One other thing that may help – the fact that a vote for Labour would also be a vote for the mega-loser Mana Party.
    “Vote for Labour and get Mana for free….”. National should hammer that theme relentlessly in 2014.

  • andyscrase

    With the huge public opposition to the “carbon tax” in Aussie, you have to wonder whether the Greens have any future at all over there, and perhaps this will have a knock-on effect over in NZ.

  • Troy

    I wouldn’t credit the greens too much, or as much, as the in the past – more and more people are heading away from green to blue rather than to red.

    Talking about red – what the fuch happened to Chrissy Carter? Independant since Aug10, picking up the pay and doing fuching nothing (doesn’t even turn up to the chamber much anymore). I don’t usually get annoyed but how our system allows someone to sit on their fairy glutes and pickup pay for nothing is simply disgraceful.

  • Kevin Campbell

    Cameron, my family and I will be supporting Colin Craig and the Conservative Party, no real dead rats to swallow doing so either.

    Colin has integrity and determination, the raw material to become a very strong leader. He also has a long-term vision for NZ I truly believe in. He has entered politics for the right reasons, out of concern for the country his children will inherit and the direction it has been heading under Labour and National.

    No party can succeed without sound policy, strong governance and structured organisation in electorates, its not rocket science, but Act has not understood the basics of this so they will fail.

    Yes it is too late for Colin Craig to pull a miracle in 2011, but with the right team of honest grafters behind him through to 2014 he has every chance of success.

  • The answer, Cam, is for National to move even more to the left. Let ACT and the Righteous Right fill that vacuum. Marginalise Labour. Green have always survived on their Brand alone. They can’t be gotten rid of, sadly enough.

    • ltchop

      Sadly petal ACT and the Righteous Right couldn’t organise a party in a brewery! They seem to believe their money can profiles can walk themselves in goverment. As Wa’il so correctly points out it takes hard nosed political organisation to succeed beyond gaining a seat or two.
      I wish I had ever 10% of the money thrown at ACT over the years – but those who believe you can walk your way to power with money and slick marketing miss the point. Thankfully this country is still a true democracy, unlike the US. 80% of our people . Parties and Candidates, who are prepared to put in the hard slog and appreciate a a smart campaign organisation. When this element is missing, the campaign fail or be at best one election wonder. Craig, like ACT will fail, because they do not recognise the value of hard nosed campaign operatives and a grass roots membership based organisation.

  • I should have said, marginalise Labour as a rainbow/union party – they’re naturally there already and are having a very hard time to appeal to middle NZ.

  • Kevin Campbell

    Itchop

    “Craig, like ACT will fail, because they do not recog­nise the value of hard nosed cam­paign oper­a­tives and a grass roots mem­ber­ship based organisation.”

    Wrong. Craig will succeed because he fully understands the importance of the working as a team toward a common goal, party unity and consistent hard work at the coal face.

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