Who will be the next National Prime Minister?

This topic is one that will likely come up at the conference over the weekend, when the dying membership have their last hurrah in 1930’s costumes.

John Key is so popular he looks certain to leave on his own terms. When he does there will be a large void in National, perhaps not quite as large as the void Helen Clark left Labour in, but it will be large none the less.

It is possible that the next National Prime Minister is not yet in Parliament, just as it is with Labour. John Key was first elected in 2002, and his predecessor as leader, Don Brash, was also elected when National was in opposition. This will be something of a slap in the face to the aspiring leaders in caucus who all see their ascension to the leadership and the love of the voters as inevitable.

Tomorrows pre-conference post will deal with the aspiring replacements for John Key. Today readers should consider how there will be another National PM under MMP if ACT and the Maori Party die, and there are no new parties entering parliament. The next National PM will have to either win 50% of the vote,  a near impossible feat, or come to a coalition agreement with the Greens or Labour, neither of which seems likely.

In all the festivities of the 1930’s celebration that is this years National Conference this should the most important topic. Will there be another National PM if MMP is retained? Which aspirational National leader of the future is going to take the bull by the horns and realise National are destined to be the permanent party of opposition if MMP is retained?


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  • Billoby

    Mr Joyce, frontrunner.
    Unbelievably smart, (ask him about central North Island crayfish), funny, and plenty of vision.

  • peterwn

    I reckon that John Key will be giving the matter serious thought. I would not be surprised if Michelle Boag as a ‘head hunter’ is giving the matter serious thought too – it could well be that Michelle finds an outstanding candidate and persuades him or her to stand for Parliament and John gives the candidate full support.

    IMO National should concede the 2017 election, but on its terms, and with the objective of winning in 2020. Unfortunately parties are often in disarray immediately after a defeat, and if National is in disarray after 2017, it probably will not regain power until 2026 as Labour would easily win in 2020 and is hence able to dig itself in for a 2023 victory.

    Because of the very nature of the political animinal it is too much to expect National to be fighting fit after a 2017 defeat. However it is beholden on National’s current and future leadership (in and out of caucus) to do its utmost to steer the Party in a direction such that the next Labour Government survives for three years only (as in 1957 and 1972).

    • If Michelle Boag is headhunting anyone they would be electoral poison.

      • peterwn

        Which makes John Key electoral poison – AFAIK, Michelle played a significant role in persuading John to go into politics.

        • I knew you would fall into that trap. Silly boy. It is a fallacy that John Key was recruited by Michelle Boag.

          From Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Key

          In 1998, on learning of his interest in pursuing a political career, the National Party president John Slater began working actively to recruit him. Former party leader Jenny Shipley describes him as one of the people she “deliberately sought out and put my head on the line–either privately or publicly–to get them in there”.[4][10]

          From this Metro article. http://www.webcitation.org/5VxD4yxyR

  • Matt

    Judith Collins. She’s strong, tough, able to get things done. She’s active with the police force and has gotten results for them. Despite being tough she seems genuinely nice.
    I’d say Collins leader/PM and Joyce for deputy and finance.

    • spiker

      Getting things done for the police is not always a good thing.

      The High Court ruled that police had acted beyond their powers by attempting to change the classification of firearms in ‘sporting configuration’ which had been put in place by Parliament.

      So, the judiciary upholds the law and in response the rightly admonished officials simply need to convince their minister to bypass the judiciary by re-writing the legislation to protect their position from further censure and enable return to the incorrect and erroneous policy by use of regulation?

      Thanks Judith :/

  • Collind and Joyce would definitely be a no-nonsense pairing, and things would get done. But would they be electable?

    • thor42

      I’d say so. They’d sure as hell make a great contrast to any panty-waists that Labour put up.