Why Goff can't be believed

Matthew Hooton is blogging again and his first post is about Phil Goff and his fanciful position on the SIS briefings he said he never had but documents prove that he did.

Until Mr Goff’s attacks on Mr Tucker yesterday, there has never been any suggestion that the SIS has not faithfully complied with this part of the law.  Opposition leaders Helen Clark, Jenny Shipley, Bill English, Don Brash and John Key have never expressed any concern about a lack of consultation.  In fact, Dr Brash felt sufficiently well briefed as Leader of the Opposition to express reservations as to the quality of the SIS’s case against Ahmed Zaoui, surprising many liberals.  It wasn’t that he wasn’t briefed – it was that he was sufficiently well briefed to form a view.

It is deeply implausible that Warren Tucker of all people would be the first to break this convention and law by insufficiently briefing the Labour Leader.  Just read his CV.  This is a former Army Major who joined the Government Communications Security Bureau in 1982.  He had the trust of the Labour Government of the 1980s to serve throughout David Lange’s prime ministership as the bureau’s liaison officer to the National Security Agency in Washington.  In his book Mr Life, Mr Lange expressed concern about the conduct of some military and intelligence personnel that he felt undermined him, but there is not the slightest criticism of Mr Tucker.

Mr Tucker was then appointed Intelligence Coordinator in the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet under Prime Minister Jim Bolger and then Director of the Government Communications Security Bureau in December 1999 under Helen Clark.  Ms Clark then advised the Governor-General to appoint him Director of Security, New Zealand Security Intelligence Service, a role he took up on 1 November 2006.

An impeccable legacy of public service being smeared by Phil Goff for political gain.

For Mr Goff’s position to be credible, it is necessary to believe a number of things about Mr Tucker including that he would fake documents in order to mislead the Prime Minister and the media and discredit the Leader of the Opposition.  Make no mistake, the documents that have been released under the Official Information Act do not consist simply of a scrawled note by Mr Tucker saying Mr Goff had read the key paper on the Israel issue. They also reveal that an agenda was prepared in advance for the 14 March meeting showing Mr Tucker planned to raise the matter with Mr Goff and that it was in fact “discussed at length”.  The documents also reveal that Mr Tucker recorded that Mr Goff raised questions about the matter and that it was “discussed at length”.  Mr Tucker then referred to the discussion again when preparing the agenda for the next regular meeting, required under statute, with Mr Goff, which was held three weeks later

Mr Goff would have it that these documents are fakes.  Mr Tucker wrote things down, and prepared agendas and minutes, that were untrue. He then gave these false documents to the Prime Minister’s Office and to Whaleoil in order to discredit Mr Goff.

This is an extraordinary allegation for Mr Goff to be making, even implicitly.  How credible is it that Mr Tucker would behave that way?  My intelligence sources tell me he has always been the ultimate straight-shooter and has done more than any of his predecessors to bring openness and transparency to the intelligence community.  Any personal political views he may have are, I’m told, completely unreadable and, as outlined above, he has maintained the confidence of every New Zealand prime minister from Muldoon, to Lange, to Bolger, to Clark to Key. It is impossible to believe he has now risked his reputation to take a cheap shot at Mr Goff, who he served loyally when he was Foreign Minister, Defence Minister and Trade Minister through the 2000s.

It is pure fantasy for Phil Goff’s multiple and changing positions to remain.

Isn’t it far more likely that Mr Goff, having previously said the matter had not even been mentioned to him at all, has been caught lying and is now forced, Nixon-like, to maintain the lie – even if it requires implicitly attacking Mr Tucker’s integrity to the extent of suggesting he has behaved illegally?

The alternative theory is that Mr Goff was distracted by the Darren Hughes affair when the 14 March meeting occurred and so didn’t engage properly or since forgot what discussed.

This may be more charitable to Mr Goff but is in fact less credible than the outright-lie theory. As Mr Goff has said, he is immensely interested in Israel spy issues and Middle East politics. It is implausible that if, as Mr Goff now admits, Mr Tucker at least “flicked the issue past him“, that Mr Goff would not have asked him more – especially as I am told by intelligence sources that Mr Goff earned a reputation with intelligence officers for always engaging deeply on intelligence issues when he was a minister, something they appreciated.

Despite all this, Mr Goff would now have us believe that when the Israeli spy/backpacker issue was mentioned in the briefing, he asked no follow up questions – indeed showed no interest engagement or interest at all – but that, nevertheless, Mr Tucker went away and wrote down that he had engaged with Mr Goff on the issue at length.

It is not often that the only logical conclusion is to believe that a major political figure is telling barefaced lies, but this is one of them.

Occam’s Razor is clear and unequivocal:

“simpler explanations are, other things being equal, generally better than more complex ones”



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  • bunswalla

    Occam’s Razor can be expressed another way, albeit not to confuse Goff and Mallard, which is easy enough to do:

    “If it looks like a duck, and it walks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck – it’s probably a duck”

    • sjerusalem

      Actually Occam’s Razor is more like don’t postulate entities beyond necessity

  • kevin

    Everyones money is on Tucker, I haven’t heard anyone say goff is likely to be correct with his recollection. The silence from his labour buddies is deafening… I think the term is ‘hanging him out to dry’.

    • abjv

      There’s another option. Early-onset Alzheimers. If so, this could make the election campaign period a bit ‘different’.

  • Agent BallSack

    He doesnt recall discussing CGT on the family homes if a business is run from it either I bet.

  • pidge

    Also, “sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from malice”

  • bunswalla

    When Goff says “I’m sure it didn’t happen because I definitely would have remembered it” he’s admitting “I’m fucked if I know how I didn’t pick up on that when it was mentioned to me – I must have been really preoccupied with something else at the time”.

    When Tucker says “We discussed it and I showed you the document and here are the notes I made at the time” he’s saying Goff’s a lying moron.

  • Agent BallSack

    It wouldnt surprise me at all if the Darren Hughes affair does have a lot to do with this…At the time Labour were busy lying their way out of that one too, Senior members townhouses being used for gay sex romps (and god knows what else). My guess would be this took precedence over anything else, it slipped Goffs mind and he forgot what lies he was supposed to be telling about what.

  • deputy

    Front bench members of a left wing political party (guess who) charter an aircraft to fly them to a conference. It crashes in a rural area. The Police arrive and they could see the wreckage with no sign of the passengers.

    A farmer turned up and advises that he had witnessed the crash and there were no survivors.

    The Police asked where the bodies were and the farmer advised that he had just finished burying them.

    The response from the Police – ” So they were all killed ?”

    The farmer replied – ” Well they tried to tell me that they were all alive but you know how much those left wing pricks lie”

  • jabba

    all we need now is for Goff to announce “I am not a crook”

  • busman007

    Has anyone asked Goof what notes he has written about the meeting !!! the retard probably has none ? obviously not or he would have produced them.
    For the leader of the opposition party not to take notes at this high level really shows you what fu#@wits Liabour really are.

  • thor42

    Goof only has one credible course of action. He must resign.
    That would “force Labour’s hand”, and it would force the cowardly pricks to find a leader.
    Anyway…. given that this is Goof’s only credible action, he won’t do it.

  • deputy

    Picture this. Goof the last of the Kamikaze pilots takes a final sip of sake. Takes off and flys over parliament. Screams out Banzai and puts his fighter into a steep dive.

    Crashes into the sewer ponds. Missed again.

    • thor42

      Brilliant… quite brilliant….. ;)

    • navygreg

      hehehe! I can so see it happening ! :)