National's Strategic Stupidity Ctd

National are so far ahead in the polls this election just a matter of finding out how many MPs they get. Labour are doomed to opposition, but National have not worked out that they are falling into a massive trap set by the left.

National have adopted a neutral stance on the referendum, knowing full well that ACT is doomed, United Future is a joke of a party and the Maori Party will leave the house when its leaders retire. Labour and the Greens will remain, and National will have to win a near majority to ever govern again.

Labour may be beaten this time, but unless National and John Key start using some political capital to get a vote for change National will become the natural party of opposition, unable to form a coalition and unable to win a majority.

The most popular Prime Minister in history could change the referendum result by advocating voting for change. Why he is not is almost beyond comprehension.

The time is now to really put the pressure onto Labour and their ebbing support what better way to do it than by advocating a change to the electoral system that in the long term dooms National to opposition more often than not.

 


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  • bruno 32

    I live in a rural electorate and I notice the rabid Nat supporters have the same glint in their eyes as when shipley was in charge. They think they are born to rule and totally underestimate ,the rabid left. A wake up call would be when key needs to knock on Bills door,from the Bill and Ben party ,to try and form a government after Bill has had a big night out,on the piss.

  • Alex

    I disagree: I think it is pointless for National to bother putting time and effort into the issue. After 15 odd years of MMP, peoples’ minds are made up one way or the other.

    An overt attempt to sway the vote on this issue may backfire for National. I suspect there are quite a few centre voters who are supporting Key, because he clearly can operate in the MMP system and knows how to build relationships (eg, with the Maori party). Key is popular because he has, by in large, earned the trust of centre voters. They are likely to reward that trust with more seats for National — but those voters will distinctly support MMP knowing that it allows them to turf an arrogant government out more effectively than any other system.

    If National were to start campaigning to get rid of MMP will just cause those centre voters to go Left again.

    • What a load of bollocks. You can’t necessarily turf out a government, coalitions prevent that and the tide will turn against national and the demise of any partners will see the double act of Greens/Labour for a very very long time.

      The problem isn’t now, nor in 2014 but it will be after that for every election because Act will be gone, so will maori and peter dunne, it’ll be National vs Labour/Greens and so they will ahve to get teh majority of the vote. only once in 50 years has that happened.

      • In several elections time, someone else will come along. National and Labour are not going to gave 90%+ of the vote between them. It may not be ACT, or United Future, or whoever, but the idea that the Greens and Labour will have a long-term period of getting 48%+ of the vote between them is fanciful. And if they do get 47% of the vote, and National can’t match that on their own, someone else will get something and change everything. You may be write for one election, or even two, but at some point, there will be a new normal.

      • Alex

        My stress was on the words “more effectively” than the other systems. It’s just saying that MMP is the most sensitive to voter changes than the others.

        But the essential points are this:

        FPP — no one wants to go back to that.

        STV — I suspect that few want to have another electoral experiment, and quite a few might find the whole idea of ranking rather tiresome. STV is no godsend as shown by the Wellington by-election results. Prendergast got the highest number of voters; yet Brown Wade won because all the loony left fringe voters gave her their second preference vote. In short, the loony left fringe voters got a second vote; while the majority centre-right voters got one vote.

        So it seems to me that it will be either MPP or SM. The MMP proponents don’t like SM, since it’s just tokenism proportionality. My guess is that people will stick with MMP but want some reforms to it, ie. increase the 5% threshold and stop ejected incumbent MPs coming in via the list.

        Overlaying all of this is that I think most voters have made up their minds on account of the experience of the last couple of elections. My gut feeling is the Left and centre people by and large are happy with MMP, and that MMP will survive as a result.

        Given that I think National throwing resources into “fighting” MPP is pointless.

        Of course, this is all pissing in the wind until the votes are cast. But my view is that the centre-right probably just needs to accept that MMP is here to stay, and start getting more sophisticated in its strategy.

  • MrV

    Another point is that under FPP, it was common if one party looked like getting a comfortable majority, people would start thinking about casting protest votes over more minor issues.
    What I want to know is could this mentality set in under MMP? If it happens the polls will be currently overstating the National majority.
    You have to admit it is uncharted waters …

  • bruno 32

    The Nats have a free pass this election , as we all know the labour party is dead. But rats are hard to kill ,and they WILL be back. Full credit to Don Brash for stating the obvious.

  • It is interesting that everyone is looking to the future but basing their forecasts on current demographics. What effects will a much larger Asian population have – how do they vote, how will their children vote? Will we see an influx of skilled European & US liberal migrants as a result of unsettled the international economic & political climate?
    Will we be pressured to take in a much larger refugee intake? Will these changes result in an exodus of Kiwis to Australia? Population changes will have an increasing effect on the future of NZ politics over the next decade or so.

    • And don’t forget the browning of Auckland

  • Kevin Campbell

    Cameron is right. There has never been a more important time to make sure a strong stable party of principle exists on the right. Thanks to the Act brains trust the Nats and NZ are highly vulnerable.

    The numbers will come from Act but people who normally vote Act are saying they will vote for Colin Craig and the Conservative party.

  • Alex

    Cameron, have you not researched polls from 2002 for the Labour Party?

  • Bruce Bevin

    If pressure from the global economy causes a significant rise in unemployment in New Zealand before the election, Labours Star may rise, causing a shift in Alliance say, Maori party Allied to Labour and the Mana Party and the Greens as coalition partners – stranger things have happened at sea! Goff could well have to change his position on Hone Harawira! It would not take a major shift for Peter Sharples and Tariana Turia to ally with Mana and Hone Harawira! Not forgetting of course, the Elephant in the room – the Christchurch Earthquake! Watch out John Key!

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