Labour’s polls disasters continue

Two polls tonight and two disasters for Labour.

3News Reid Research Poll

National: up 3.5 to 57.4%
Labour: down 2.2 to 26.6% (lowest ever recorded on 3 News)
Greens: up 0.5 to 9.8%
NZ First: down.0.3 to 1.9%
ACT: down 0.6 to 1.6%
Maori: down 0.7 to 0.8%
Mana: no change 0.7%
United Future 0.0%

OneNews Colmar Brunton poll

National 56% Steady
Labour 29% Down 1%
Green Party 9% Up 3%
NZ First 2% Steady
Act 1% Down 1%
The Maori Party 1% Steady
Mana Party 1% Steady

Fortunately for Labour it isn;t too late, they have 4 days left to roll Phil Goff. These polls don’t cover the insane attack on Sir Peter Leitch by two Labour MPs either.


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  • Anonymous


  • thor42

    Good stuff! 

  • kevin

    I read somewhere that goff is around 8% …

  • fisiani

    polls traditionally close as we close to voting. this time they will separate. 60% for National is on the cards.

  • Rightoverlabour

    All lies- Check the standard here
    Someone is telling porkies… or pigs do fly and the world is flat.
    But then again in the real world, the attacks on the Mad Butcher have not been accounted for in the latest polls, and I do believe that labour will lose more support because of that insane tirade. As much as I think the Greens have mad policies, I would rather them as the official opposition than the spiteful haters that labour has spewing forth…

  • fisiani

    why 4 days to roll Phil not 54?

    • Because in 4 days time their list will be locked in place and there will be no more time left to do it before the election.

      • fisiani

        surely that is Tues 1st November

  • fisiani
    • Yes that may well be the law but there are internal Labour processes, then political management considerations making it almost impossible to be done after the next 4 days. This is the same issue National currently faces in Tamaki.

  • middleagedwhiteguy

    Labour are leaving their options open.  Goff could well be rolled at any time prior to the election, which is why Goff’s picture has been absent from any Labour election hoarding.   Their whole campaign is being run with a view to changing the leadership at some point prior to the polls.  That, to me, is obvious.

  • Anonymous

    Cam, assuming that Banks takes Epsom how many list seats does 1% give Act?

    • Zero. It’s 1.2% to get one apparently.

    • abjv

      Let’s say 96% of the party vote counts (2% to Winston is wasted through no seat, 2% is wasted on other ‘random’ parties).  If ACT gets Epsom and 1.6%, this would entitle them to two seats – one electorate and one list.  Anything less than 1.6% and they have to hope the roundings work in their favour.  At 1.5% they are probably in luck (at 1.875 seats).  At 1.4% it reduces to 1.75 seats and the Rounding God has to be looking very kindly at them.  Any less than that, then kiss the list seat good-bye. 

      At 2.5%, Rodney Hide’s ACT was looking at 3 seats.  Don’s ACT is now looking at 1 or 2 seats, depending on poll vagaries and rounding.  Or no seats at all, if Banksie discovers the reason why he polled so well for Mayor in Epsom was because of the ‘anyone but Len’ attitude rather than people actually liking him.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the clarification abjv. You have confirmed my fears and that National should have known better than to rely on the two dinosaurs and gone all out to win Epsom outright. Easy to be wise after the event but Epsom deserves better than Banks for whom they are now bound to vote for,