Why #bryceedwardsconspiracy can’t be possible

Trevor Mallard and Clare Curran plus the useful idiots at The Standard are convinced that there is a master conspiracy between myself, Matthew Hooton (the Dark Lord), David Farrar, and the non Labour left, all paid for by Bill English.

A cabal if you will working very hard to bring about the downfall of Labour. Never mind that they have done that themselves with arrogance and hubris and ongoing unmitigated disasters. Just today we have seen Russell Brown and Chris Trotter added to the list of conspirators that also includes Sir Peter Leitch. David Farrar coined the term the Vast Right Wing and non-Labour Left Wing Conspiracy (VRWNLLWC)

However there is a flaw in their argument. For every added conspirator, the chances of success fade:

This can be formulated in a model.  Let n be the number of conspirators and let p= probability that a single conspirator will not cause failure, either through disloyalty or incompetence.  Then


Where A is a proportionality constant.  “Effectiveness” is a nebulous concept because I haven’t specified the conspiracy.  You can think of it as some measure of success appropriate to a particular conspiracy.  The simplest case is to assume Effectiveness is proportional to the number of conspirators, but one can imagine alternatives.

So for a typical example, A=1/10 and p=.75.  These give a Chance of Success (for Effectiveness=1) of 6%.  If the conspirators are in a Prisoner’s Dilemma situation where it’s advantageous to turn on the others, then p=.1 and the Chance of Success is equation, which nicely explains why conspiracies rarely work.

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