The Marginal Labour Seats – Rimutaka


The margin in 2008  was just 753.

A 27% gap means Labour are in big trouble in Rimutaka. Chris Hipkins has not done a lot wrong except be a Labour Party MP and not rolling Goff when sage political judges were saying he would tank Labours vote.

On the other hand, Chris is not the kind of Nick Smith, Harry Duynhoeven, Chris Tremain or Clayton Cosgrove type MP who builds a strong personal support base in his electorate.

On the ground National’s Jonathan Fletcher is running a competent campaign, and is a much more formidable competitor than Richard Whiteside was in 2008. His campaign is not being f***ed up by the woman regarded to be the most incompetent and unpleasant in recent National memory, former regional chair Patricia Morrison, which could be the crucial difference between 2008 and 2011.

Apparently Chris is struggling to find volunteers as Labour’s vote tanks, and his power of incumbency may not be that powerful.

The big unknown in this race is what will happen to the New Zealand First vote that went to Ron Mark in 2008. Ron’s 5257 votes will probably decide the race, and could be Hipkins salvation. Without these votes being in play this seat would be expected to go to National.

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