What a 27% gap means, Ctd

Following up on the post earlier in the day on Labour marginals at risk, the following seats probably are not at as much risk as the others.

New Lynn: Groser hasn’t been in the electorate enough over three years to take the seat from Cunliffe, despite Silent T not really having much rapport with the voters.

Waimakariri: Very tight numbers wise but Cosgrove has a good reputation in his electorate and Wilkinson has a bad one. Cosgrove may just pull it off, mainly because he has de-branded.

Port Hills: Dyson is safe. Carter isn’t trying, and Dyson has a loyal following from her electorate that only comes from the right kind of hard work.

Wellington Central:      Farrars pick for Labour’s first gay leader is probably not under threat as it is the liberal elite that keep him there, not the traditional Labour voter who are not going to turn out or will vote for John Key. Expect Wellington Central party vote to go to National.

Ohariu: Chauvel was a chance before he revealed himself to be a key member of the nasty party. Abusing noisy kids on a plane, complaining about being attacked because he is a gay rich prick etc doesn’t make it easy for people to vote for our mate Chucky. And Charles your campaign car is gayer than Fossy’s gay ute.

That leaves five seats: Rimutaka, Christchurch Central, Palmerston North, Mana and Hutt South that are all in play. Labour can kiss goodbye to New Plymouth again already.

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