What a 27% gap means

Back in July I posted on what a 26% gap means. With Goff taking Labour lower and National’s vote holding it is worth looking at this post again.

1% means roughly 350 votes.

16% change in the polls means  a 5600 swing to National.

This starts causing Labour serious problems, because it is not just the nominally marginal seats that are in play, it is actually the safe red seats held by senior MPs like Phil Goff, and David Cunliffe.

Rank Seat Labour MP National Candidate National EV Labour Ev Margin
1 Waimakariri COSGROVE, Clayton (LAB) WILKINSON, Kate (NAT) 15,970 16,360 -390
2 Rimutaka HIPKINS, Christopher John (LAB) WHITESIDE, Richard (NAT) 12,982 13,735 -753
3 Christchurch Central BURNS, Brendon (LAB) WAGNER, Nicky (NAT) 13,143 14,078 -935
4 Palmerston North LEES-GALLOWAY, Iain (LAB) PLIMMER, Malcolm (NAT) 14,860 15,977 -1,117
5 Öhariu DUNNE, Peter Francis (UFNZ) CHAUVEL, Charles (LAB) 10,009 11,297 -1,288
6 Mana FAAFOI, Kris PARATA, Hekia (NAT) 9,574 10,980 -1,406
7 Wellington Central ROBERTSON, Grant (LAB) FRANKS, Stephen (NAT) 15,142 17,046 -1,904
8 Port Hills DYSON, Ruth (LAB) HEFFERNAN, Terry (NAT) 13,382 16,834 -3,452
9 New Lynn CUNLIFFE, David (LAB) GROSER, Tim (NAT) 13,306 17,331 -4,025
10 Hutt South MALLARD, Trevor (LAB) QUINN, Paul (NAT) 12,604 16,690 -4,086
11 Te Atatü CARTER, Chris (LAB) HENARE, Tau (NAT) 11,161 16,459 -5,298

Through the day I will post on the seats that are now very much at risk for Labour.

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