Why Winston’s task is harder than people realise

There’s been a bit of speculation about whether Winston will break the 5% threshold and get back into Parliament. Most of the credible polling shows he polling around or just under 3%.

His task is harder than people realise. Pundits have not yet picked up on the power of specials and overseas votes, and how this could profoundly affect Winston’s chances.

(Source – NZ Parliament website)

You see, Winston needs to do better than 5.01%.

This is because overseas and special votes cast tend to hurt, rather than help NZ First’s party vote. If he should get 5.1% on the night, he would probably fall below 5% when the specials come in.

Let’s look at the evidence.

Election night on 2008, NZ First got 4.2%

However, they dropped to 4.07% after the specials came in.

The results are similar to 2005, where they won 5.84% on the night, and dropped to 5.72% on the final result – again with slippage of .12%

Given that in 2011, they have been out of Parliament, it is likely that their overseas and special vote networks have degraded. Their “slippage” from E-Day to the final declared result could be higher than 0.12%.

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.