Romney expected to win Florida

Nate Silver reckons there is a 97% chance that Mitt Romney will take out the Florida primary tonight:

The shift away from Newt Gingrich in the Florida polls has been as significant as the one toward him in South Carolina. The first two polls released after South Carolina showed Mr. Gingrich with a lead of 8 and 9 points, respectively. But the news has gotten worse for him almost every day, and he trails Mitt Romney by nearly 15 points in the final FiveThirtyEight forecast of the Florida primary.

You can follow his live blog of the Florida primary.


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  • Anonymous

    Sounds ok to me.
    From what I’ve seen of Gingrich, he sounds like a real warmonger. Romney seems a bit more cautious and not quite so gung-ho. 

  • Gazzaw

    He should take Florida out. There’s a big Hispano Catholic community there but they are predominantly Democrat. Romney will win on the basis that he has a cleaner slate. A massive TV spend has clinched it anyway.  

  • Anonymous

    Romney’s the only real threat to Obama, which Floridians are aware of, despite the Mormon stuff.

    • Blair Mulholland

      Romney’s electability relative to Gingrich is a myth.  Both men have significant flaws.  But both could take Obama out with a good campaign.  I don’t buy this nonsense that Romney is a threat and Gingrich isn’t.  They could both kick Obama’s arse if the wind is blowing the right way.  I actually think on balance Obama will have an easier time demonizing Romney than Gingrich.

      • Hakimofphut

        Rubbish , Bush could barely beat Gore  ( with 5 votes that counted) and later Kerry and he was far more electable than the current GOP contenders

  • Apolonia

    The key comparison is to look at Romney vs Gingrich/Santorum, and they are both about 44%,with 2 states each. This race has got quite a way to go.

  • Hakimofphut

    Why did the US suddenly have so many rabid Catholic nutters like Gingrich and Santorum.