A Rogue Poll or a Boag Poll?

It could be a rogue poll or it could be the Boag Effect tanking National’s poll numbers in the latest Roy Morgan poll.

The last time that Michelle Boag had such an effect on National’s polling number was in 2o02 and we all know how that ended up.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows decreasing support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party 44% (down 4.5% since February 27-March 11, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged), and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Labour has risen 0.5% to 30.5%, Greens 17% (up 4.5%) — a record high, New Zealand First 5% (unchanged), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (down 1%).

If a National Election were held today the National Party would likely be returned to Government, however a Labour/ Greens alliance could form Government.


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  • Peter Wilson

    This poll is actually good news for the Key government – or at least its supporters.

    It’s a long way to the next election, and anything that snaps them out of their daydream of winning 48% again must be a good thing.

    I suspect the Smith/ACC scandal had definitely contributed to National’s loss – not sure if the Collins libel fiasco is included but that sort of thing clearly doesn’t go down well with voters.

    • Lying by Opposition politicians rarely does, and Labour was static while the Greens rose.

      • Pete George

        I think that’s as significant as Nationals trending slide. People are looking for something different to the big two, Labour don’t get this, they think trashing Natikonal is all they need to do. Greens are a sort of safe alternative (not much else to choose from), as long as they never get to actually implement their wacky policies.

      •  i think that direct transference of poll support from national to the greens has to have labour worried..

        ..norman is looking more and more competent in his job..

        ..and time/perspective is a funny thing…

        ..and in hindsight it may well have been the best thing to happen for the greens for clark to do a coalition-dirty on them..twice in a row…

        ..had the greens gone with labour..’tis likely they would have shared in the approbrium heaped on labour…

        ..and muddied their green-brand..

        ..now somehow..they seem more ready…

        ..and if not looking like the party of opposition..

        ..they are at least on equal footing with labour now..in those stakes..

        ..so will be much more an equal partner..and able to achieve much more..

        ..than they ever would have had clark held the door open for them…

        ..and what is also cheering with the greens..

        ..is the competent younger generation being allowed to shine…

        ..younger members of other parties…looking at the long queues they face..

        ..must look on green with envy..


        [email protected]

  • Apolonia

    Bad news for Labour.   

  • Phar Lap

    Any party but the “Greens”imagine being transported back a hundred years ,with the ideaology of Stalin and Mao with all their schisms and heresies.To make it worse ,being told what to do by an Aussie reject called Rusel with one “R “,and a wee fat human frog called Turei.Was interesting in the Queensland elections, they lost ground and went backward.People are now waking up to the devastation that, that lot of anarchists can do to a country.Hope the Kiwi Voter is not getting lulled into a utopia mentality by loopy lefties.

    • Pete George

      Greens are promoting an anti mining tour:

      Green Party MPs Catherine Delahunty and Gareth Hughes invite you to a
      series of hui to discuss the Government’s broad “drill it, mine it”
      agenda for Aotearoa – what’s happening, what does it mean to our
      environment and communities and how do we stop it.

      I asked if they were against all current and future mining and drilling and all I got was abuse. They seem to only want to sell themselves to the gullible. That’s cultish.


      • Salacious T Crumb

         Maybe someone should deface their rpomotional billboards Pete?

      • Gazzaw

        Unfortunately Pete there are significant numbers of idealistic people who oppose ‘drill it & mine it’  along with partial privatisation and offshore investment. They just don’t get it that the only other option is to borrow massively and that NZ just has to make the hard decisions – there is no choice. Let’s pray that they are not there in sufficient numbers allow the greens to form a government.

      • Pete George

        The reality of what Green policies would mean if implemented has not been widely considered by the electorate.

        I think a lot of their support is along the lines of “worth having their input as long as they’re not in charge”.

      • Kimbo

         “The reality of what Green policies would mean if implemented has not been widely considered by the electorate.

        I think a lot of their support is along the lines of “worth having their input as long as they’re not in charge”.

        Yeah. I sometimes take issue with your posts, Pete George, but that is a good analysis.

        We likely will have a Labour-Green-someone else government by 2017, maybe sooner, it will be because of the reasons you specify.

        I suspect the good news is the result will be so awful, the experience will be seared into the collective subconscious of the electorate for nearly a generation. So the decade of 2020-2030 will be one of sound public policy implemented by moderate right-wing governments – which is the natural “default setting” of the NZ populace and political culture.

    • phar lap:..you really packed in the labels/categories in that one..eh..?

      ‘stalin’- ‘mao’ – ‘aussies’ – ad-hom – ‘anarchists’ – ‘utopia’ – ‘loony-lefties’



      [email protected]

      • Phar Lap

        My apologies for leaving you out.Thanks for reminding me ,you are now in the mentioned category.Seems this could be the first time you are mentioned in dispatches.Please stop sulking.

      • niggly

        That’s cos Phar Lap’s right – he’s on the money ;-)

      • Philip ure a cock

        What’s the matter Phool? That give you are a hard-on?

  • Salacious T Crumb

    The Nats must surely now see the Greens as a legitimate opposition threat. Time for them to delineate from the more wacky green policies and go after the Greens on some of their fruity ideologies.

    True leadership on matters such as Climate Fraud would surely see them gain a stronger middle ground.

    • thor42

      The Greens are wide-open for a really good thumping on the so-called “manmade climate change” fraud.
      The Nats should be attacking them NOW. Don’t wait until the election – it’s too late then.  

      • Apolonia

         But the Nats support the man made climate change fiction. That’s why we have an ETS.

      • Gazzaw

        We have a watered down ETS Apolonia. I’m happy with that as it is just at a sufficient level to keep the EU happy and negate any possible problems for the continued access of our exports to Europe.  

      • Apolonia

        Canada, Japan, China, USA  all export to the EU and they don’t have an ETS.
        The argument that we have to have one is an excuse for a lack of courage.

      • Gazzaw

        I don’t think that it’s quite so easy for Europe to tell China, Japan, USA & even Canada to fuck off. NZ is totally superfluous to requirements in Europe – they don’t need us. You might say that they don’t need Canadian goods either but they do need Canadian membership of NATO.  

      • Richard McGrath

        John Key has embraced totally the lies spewed forth by Al Gore:


        I wouldn’t expect his government to turn away any time soon from the AGW lunacy.

      • Gazzaw

        Rather embraced pragmatically I think.

    •  that you deny the science and opinions of most of the worlds’ scientists..

      ..and increasingly the general public..

      ..does not in itself mean you are in a majority..

      ..in fact..increasingly you are being seen as wrong..

      ..and as the ‘loony-fringe’ on this subject…

      ..so advocating that national join you in that fringe-group..

      ..surely cannot be seen as serious advice..?

      [email protected]

      • Salacious T Crumb

        Your so called “loony fringe” seems to be gaining more and more weight judging by the increasing data disproving popular Climate Change theories.

        In the last decade the planet hasnt warmed and the seas havent risen. There have been sustained periods of warming/cooling in earths history that could not have been put down to mans influence.

        Even the IPCC is changing its stance Phil.

        The tragedy is that there has never been real debate because of the politicisation of the whole issue. Science has been the real victim here I am an advocate for this particular victims rights.

        As you so often beseech posters here Phil, open you mind and look at the evidence. There is plenty there to not only disprove the perpetuated theories but at the very least, call for real debate.

  • ConwayCaptain

    As Josef Goebbels said “If you tell a lie enough times people will beleive it”.  This is what all the doomsayers are doing.  Greenpeace has been taken to task over tgheir ad about 20,000 birds died when the Rena hit the bricks.  How many other porkies have they told???

    The sea levels have not increased markedly if at all in the last 10 years neither has the temperature.  The PIs which are so called sinking because of global warming are sinking owing to the crumbling of the underwater volcano on which they sit OR by subduction of one tectonic plate under another!!!  Carteret Is off PNG is a case in point.

    The water tables are rising owing to over use of the water because the islands are OVERPOPULATED by too much rumpy pumpy!!!!!!

    There are floods owing to deforestation and the rivers silting up not because of too much water owing to GW.  The Himalayan glaciers are not melting as the scaremongers told us recently.  If the Artic ice melts it will not cause a rise in sea temp in the same way when the ice in your glass melts tghe liquid level stya the same.

    The Antarctic ice sheet is not going to melt in a few years, thousands yes and the climate will change again in that time and we may have an ice age.  At the moment we are in an inter glacial period so there will be cooling again.

    So Phil, fill up your BONG, roll a joint and you can let your fanatsies roam!!

    • Salacious T Crumb

      And one day Al Gore will be spoke about in the same light Captain.

      Anthroprogenic Climate Change will one day be considered the greatest scientific fraud since the church’s insistence that the sun and planets revolve the earth. Lets not forget the church considered anyone supporting Ptomely’s theories of a solar centric system as a heretic.

      Sound familiar?

    • niggly

      Nice rebuttal’s there Captain!

      • ConwayCaptain

        Thank you Niggly and Salacious T Crumb

        I assume that Phil has filled up the Bong and rolled a joint!!

    • jay cee

      don’t underestimate the intelligence of the electorate. times have moved on from goebels day.social networking on the internet  etc makes life hard for dictators and the like to promote their propaganda.as witnessed by he scorn heaped on climate change promoters, 20,000 birds killed by the rena could very well be the case as nobody knows how many died and sank rather than getting washed into shore. 
         but i digress, the above mentioned poll showing a possible labour/green coalition shouldn’t surprise anyone after all thats who were running the country from 1999 –  2008

  • ConwayCaptain

    BTW  8000 years ago the Channel Islands were part of the continent and it was possible to wa;lk in what is now the Bay of Mont St Michel.  Now did Mr and Mrs Ugg the cave people light too many fires and there was global warming and the ice melted and the seas rose???  NO it was a natural occurence.  In fact the ic caps reached as far as the Med.

    •  you seem to have failed to grasp a key point..cap’n…

      ..yes there were those natural variations..

      ..but this one is ‘man-made’..

      ..we are doing it..

      ..and we will have to wear it.

      ..what i also find quite fascinatiing how so many old people are deniers…

      ..whereas most young people take it as a given..

      ..does their self-centered certainty they will be dead before the worst consequences..

      ..does this drive/explain their ignorances/denial of scientic-subjects/experts that they personally know sweet fuck all about..?.

      [email protected]

      • niggly

        Jeepers, I’d rather mankind diverted money and taxes into cleaning up polluted rivers, removing (historical) chemical contaminated waste from soil and what not, rather than divert money and taxes to the politicians under this bullshit guise of climate change, to use as their play-thing (pretending they are doing something for the environment).

      • ConwayCaptain

        The older people are deniers because they have been better educated and have been around and have experience.

        The younger people accept it because they have not been taught to THINK and just beleive everyhting they are told.

        Also Phil when doing my Professional exams we did Meteorology in some depth (pass mark 70%) and were also told to do criticl analyses on things we were told.

        One thing you were taught, and the Rena is a case in point of peopel  were no taught to queryt, was to query any order you were given that you thought was incorrect.

  • Kosh103

    Good to see the polls heading in the correct direction – towards a Labour kead Govt. However, it is too soon to tell if this is the start of a very welcome and pleasing trend, or a one off poll.

    • Pete George

      The last RM poll looks like a one off, this is more as continuation of a slight trend down for National. Not much considering the margin of error.

      Here’s all RM polls sinced the election: 47, 46, 45.5, 45.5, 45.5, 48.5, 44.5

  • MarcWills

    Interesting that the Greens have risen – is it a coincidence that their crazy co-leader (the Turei one) has been keeping a low profile. When was she last seen in the news? Perhaps they have realised what a liability she has become, and are keeping her in treatment facility until they can dump her at an opportune moment.

    • niggly

      Green tactics seem to be:

      * Present Norman, with suit, to the electorate, as the acceptable face of the Greens.
      * Present Turei, to the Green membership and believers instead, to rally the troops.

      Certainly happened during the last election!

      • niggly

        Which much suggest even the Greens see Turei as a liability to their new brand?


    Hey labour,how much more will the Greens take from you.Are they the future prefered centre left party?.Should be interesting next time around.

    • Gazzaw

      If a greens/labour coalition happened to grab power in 2014 it would be ironic if ‘chubby chops’ having grabbed the labour leadership off Shearer had to settle for the deputy role. How would we all like to have Wussel as the next PM?

      • niggly

        Cwikey, all the Ginga’s of NZ will be storming the gates to show their solidarity with the anointed one!

  • Peter Wilson

    An interesting trend, the Greens pulling votes from National!

    It still spells trouble for the Center-right, and on a party basis, trouble for Labour, but not their chances to govern!