Guest Post – David Garrett

Another Guest Post from David Garrett:

Correlation causation and  crime – the effect of active policing and sentence enhancement

When I was in parliament I sometimes  had  coffee with Rick Barker, a fellow member of the Law and Order Select Committee and a damn good bloke. Rick told a  great story illustrating how correlation and causation can be confused – even by those who should know better.

During WW II, no bananas were imported into Britain, they presumably being deemed not to be an essential food, or just not readily available. After the war, banana imports resumed – and it was noted that within nine months or a year,  the birth rate had sharply increased. For a time, banana sales went through the roof, as its “aphrodisiac” qualities became widely known. It was apparently some years – and after a couple of studies found no basis for bananas enhancing fertility – before it was realized that banana imports and rising birth rates were just a coincidence. The birth rate had risen  not because of bananas, but because at the same time  more and more young men were “de-mobbed” and came home to their wives and girlfriends.

When crime plummeted in New York State following the introduction of “broken windows” policing, those on right said smugly that the reduction in crime followed logically from more intensive policing. Those on the left said falling crime rates were just like those banana imports – changes in policing policy had nothing to do with it.

While  it  is now pretty much over in the US, for ten or fifteen years the debate raged, with lefties “feverishly searching for the ‘real’ reason crime rates plummeted”, to quote the late Dennis Dutton. Any  reason would do –  because surely it couldn’t be simple old style policing. Could it?

All sorts of “reasons” were suggested to explain away the precipitate drop in crime, from “demographic bubbles” passing through the population, to the crack epidemic which had been plaguing New York and other states waning . And of course  the now famous “more readily available abortions” theory suggested by economist Steven Levitt. This theory of cause and effect is in Levitt’s ‘Freakonomics’ and  his paper “Understanding why crime fell in the 1990’s: four factors that explain the decline and six that do not.”  in ‘Journal of Economic Perspectives’ Vo. 18, 1: pp. 163-190

Leftist commentators always focus on the “more readily available abortions”  factor Levitt identifies without ever mentioning two things: that the abortion  ‘factor’  is number four on his list of four; and the two factors  to  which Levitt  ascribes most of the reduction are more police per capita, and much greater use of punitive sentencing policies.  While almost every one knows New York is the home of “zero tolerance policing” a.k.a. “broken windows”, it is less well known that New York state also  has “sentence enhancement” laws, of which three strikes is one variant.

While lefties often derisively refer to the US experience, I suggest we can learn a lot from that country – both what works and what doesn’t.  Those who have traveled widely in the US quickly realize that to a considerable extent it is a land of fifty different  nations. The Boston Brahmins have about as much in common with the good old boys of Louisiana and Tennessee as New Zealand’s effete artistic elite have with banana growers in Far North Queensland.

So what does the US experience tell us about how best to reduce crime?  The most obvious lesson is that a combination  of more police on the streets and  sentence enhancement of one sort or another makes the biggest impact.  This is the major lesson from the New York experience;  it is that state which has seen -by a considerable margin –  the greatest reduction in crime of all types since the 1990’s.

Secondly,  sentence enhancement works. Levitt himself, the darling of the left – at least on this  issue –  says so himself. Twenty six states have introduced  “three strikes” laws which vary widely in their ambit and effect. Some states  – such as California – use their  laws far more than others do. With a couple of exceptions, there appears to be a close correlation between the usage of three strikes laws and the level of crime reduction: those states that apply their laws more have seen much greater reductions in crime of all types than those states which do not.

For the left, this is of course an “inconvenient truth” to borrow from Al Gore, but it is a truth nevertheless. It has often been said – including  by commenters here on Whaleoil – that the drop in crime across the US, and in other countries in the western world is “unexplained”.  What they really mean is if you discount the obvious, then no-one can agree on any other explanation.

Those with both common sense and a degree or two find the lessons from the US clear: put more police on the streets and lock serious felons up for longer, and crime will drop. In the last two years we  have introduced a three strikes law, and put more police on the streets of South Auckland which has the highest levels of crime in the country. And as a result,  those crime rates are falling, along with prisoner numbers. God help us if the socialists get their hands on the levers of power in 2014.


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  • johnbronkhorst

    Good piece…A wise man once told me…”Bad people, really bad people, a very few and far between. They just move around a lot”…..Police will tell you that most of the crime is committed by a very small percentage of the population (maybe the 80- 20 rule applies?). Many criminals are not caught after their first attempt at criminality, but after several crimes, then the police catch them and tie them to their privious (unsolved) crimes. I porirua several years ago there was a “spate” of burglaries (dozens I think)…when they caught one of the perpetrators it turned out that this familly of about 5 were responsible for all of them….the “spate” stopped after that!

    • David Garrett

       Thank you John…yes the 80/20 rule most definitely applies to crime and criminals…in fact is it is where I first heard of it, from police. It’s one of the main  reasons sentence enhancement laws work, by incapacitation of serial offenders who can’t or wont stop offending. If our three strikes law is allowed enough time to fully kick in, we too will have a smallish population of second and third strikers of whom even the silly socialists will find it  hard to argue that they should not be in jail.

      • Mihalku

        Has research ever been done to establish what reduction (elimination) of repeat crime from individual (or collaborating groups of) criminals, would be achieved if every crime resulted in a jail sentence (we simply took the criminal off the streets)?

        Too often I read court reports of burglars being charged after a lifetime of the same offence. Ditto drunk/disqualified drivers causing death or injury.

    • AngryTory

      “Bad people, really bad people, a very few and far between. ”
      unless you look at, say MUNZ, Labour or Greens.

      then, well, they’re f**king everywhere!

  • CommonSense404

    So basic, so true and so not going to happen in our current hand-wringing, apologist, ‘can’t do that’ society. Great post DG.

  • Evan Johnson

    Is this David Garrett, former ACT MP?  Or someone else.  I recall that the Garrett i am thinking of might have exited the political scene under a cloud?  Or have I got it totally wrong?  

    • Phar Lap

      No mate,when he saw what a backstabbing coward Mallard was, he knew he had to get the**** out of there or he would have been tainted with mallard duck shit.

    • johnbronkhorst

      Even if true that detracts from the truth and quality of this arguement ….HOW exactly???

    • Ronnie Chow

         It is a different David Garrett , Evan . We are all different people when we wake up . In your case , say to yourself before you sleep ‘I am not a dickhead”
        Then see who you are in the morning .

  • A-random-reader

    What worries me about the US is that they have frighteningly high levels of incarceration.

    It makes sense to jail violent felons for long periods. But it appears that a substantial number of people in the US have been jailed over far less serious offences.

    The social and financial costs of maintaining the US prison population are massive.

    • David Garrett

       Yes, to a great extent you are right about the US and its penal policies. From what I can see, most three strikes laws are too wideranging. Before drafting the original ACT 3S law I went to California to see if the horror stories were true (and some of them are) and how to draft a law that made that impossible to happen here. And that is what we now have; all of the 40 “strike” offences are violent offences carrying at least 7 years imprisonment. If it is not listed in s.86A of the Sentencing Act, 3S doesn’t apply.

      Which makes it all the more dishonest of the leftie clowns who continue to cite the “man going to jail for life for stealing a choclolate bar” stories when they know very well that simply can’t happen here.

      • Polishpride

        Good to know that we have legislation which has been well researched and thought out.

      • Mr_Blobby

        Don’t agree with Polishpride. My big disappointment was that drug offenses were not included. They are directly linked to violent crime and every drug bust has firearms involved.

    • Polishpride

      such as the number of people incarcerated under 3 strikes for offences such as smoking marjuana. 

      • johnbronkhorst

        In NZ?????

      • David Garrett

         Do you have some figures on that? I am not being sarcastic, I would genuinely like to know. I believe some states – such as Texas – still have LIFE as the maximum sentence for simple possession, which is of course absurd.

        But I also have reason to believe the “locked up for life/under 3S” for possession of dak are greatly exaggerated. Just as the “got life for stealing a chocolate bar” under California’s law seems apocryphal. I searched very hard, but never found that “famous” case. However there were lots of other examples which undoubtedly did happen in that state  which would be utterly unacceptable here. That is precisely why our 3S is a considerably different incarnation of the basic concept.

      • Polishpride

        In reply to David
        Have to confess I searched high and low for an example of this but the best I could come up with was a couple of life terms for possesion with intent to supply on 3 strikes (still pretty harsh in my view)
        and this one which is  a drug rehab site but actually concrete. 

  • Blokeintakapuna

    Great post – now all we need to do as a country is out-source all our longer-term incarcerations to China. Half or quarter the cost to the tax payer, eliminating the “wanna be gansta” badge of honour amonst criminals about who has the longest rap sheet – plus we get to reciprocate with China swapping our shit in free trade…

    Win win??  

    • maninblack

      that is an out standing idea. if i was in power i would do that- or i would vote for who ever proposes it.

      • Ronnie Chow

          We need to take “bad upbringing” and “immature” plus all the other softeners out of the sentencing equation .

    • AngryTory

      China’s got a really quick & cheap way of dealing with crims, so it’s a great idea so long as it’s a one way trip and ideally we get any useful spare parts back again.

  • Greg M

    Very good post David, Now what do we do to toughen Things up here ?
    I have had a gutsful of our bloody good Police being let down by a piss weak judiciary.
    As a copper friend of my says ” we get sick of going back to the same addresses”

    • David Garrett

       Yes, exactly Greg. I actually got it wrong on the “80/20” rule; I believe the police say it is more like  90/10 – take out 10% of offenders and clear up 90% of offences.3S as drafted is never going to achieve that though, as house burglaries – most of which remain unsolved if they are ever investigated – make up a huge proportion of our crime figures.

      • johnbronkhorst

        Surely David if we can take down the 3S offenders firstly there will be crossover to other offences, home invasion being one, usually has intent of burglary and becomes violent. Secondly if the incidence of 3S offences fall due to the law, that give the police more time and resources to follow up on the non 3S crimes.

      • jay cee

        sorry to sound like i’m taking you out of context, but a senior sergeant (ret) friend once told me that burglaries are time consuming to chase up as the offender has usually long gone and they don’t keep the loot on them. unless there was a witness who identified the perpetrator or the perp was stupid enough to brag to a mate who susequently narked then this crime is, sadly, put into the too hard basket.

  • Agent BallSack

    David, great post on causality. Sure as hell beats Hug a Crim Week that Labour seems to think will solve our issues.

  • Evan Johnson

    I am surprised.  I thought the “3 strikes” advocacy was something that had come back to haunt him.  Something about a Pacific Island was it?  And an identity creation?  And him being a lawyer?  Is this the same David Garrett?  And were these matters ever proven?  

    Please fill me in!

    • Brian Smaller what? He did his time and got punished. This post was about the three strikes law. Everyone has skeletons in their closets.

      • Evan Johnson

        Not many have skeletons of this nature however!!

    • Phar Lap

      Ask Mallard, Robertson,Chauvel etc etc in the Liebour Party they will fill you in,in more ways you will never dream off.Maybe their off course substitute, Darren Hughes will make a comeback in case you have not been filled in enough.

    • johnbronkhorst

      and again Evan this has what to do with the article and it’s relevance or effectiveness re 3 strikes law???..Not to depend david on the passport and identity thing, but what did you do 20 odd years ago when you were young and stupid (seems your youthful stupidity lasted longer than most peoples), that you would not like us to know???

      • Evan Johnson

        It has everything to do with the article old chap!

        Credibility and hypocrisy have everything to do with politics.

        Unless you adhere to the philosophy “it takes one to know one”.  On this basis  David Garrett may claim to be an expert.

        Its like a reformed alcoholic being a counsellor for AA.  Or an HIV Positive person being an AIDS counsellor.  

        We have to compare what we are TOLD with what we OBSERVE at all times!

      • johnbronkhorst

        Twaddle Evan…absolute twaddle.
        an HIV sufferer and reformed alcoholic have been PROVED to be the BEST councilors in this instance. But you examples are still Irrelevant. Lending nothing to the article or the critque of the article. You are as an old saying goes…”playing the man and NOT the ball”….and I don’t think it is too hash a description (since you continue to repaet this drivel)…to call you an idiot!

      • Evan Johnson

        Such things can point to values held by individuals, and their trustworthiness.   This can be relevant when elected to public office as David discovered.

        Don’t compare me with David – compare David with about 120 other politicians that are still in the house!

      • johnbronkhorst

        I’m not compairing you to david, evan. because if I was you would fall way short of him, in this (the only comparison I can make here)…reasoned arguement!!!!

      • Pukakidon


        You just shat in you own argument..  Of course a reformed alcoholic could make a great counselor for AA, or an HIV positive person being an AIDS counselor.   They have a good deal of credibility and experience.

        You my friend have none

      • Tom

        How many convictions does Mad Sue Bradford have? Just curious… She was designing crazy laws for us to follow when she herself has quite a collection.

        Just saying

    • CommonSense404

      FFS Evan – deal with the issue. Is your only point that DG fucked up once (badly) when he was younger? Yes he did, fessed up and paid a high price. Does it detract from a well reasoned point of view on crime -NO. Like reformed crims who turn their life around and do good in the community – do we dare to suggest that we should ignore their good works because of their past – of course not. Get a life. 

    • Pukakidon

       Typical leftie twat, attack the man but do not contribute to the discussion.  


      • jay cee

        thats rich for this blog, “attack the man but do not contrbute to the discussion”
        after you dismissed him as leftie twat.

    • Ronnie Chow

        You are a little small-minded for this blog , Evan . Every Human makes mistakes . Only the best move on . Can you ?.

  • Ally

    There is no doubt that a socialist government would result in NZ becoming a more dangerous place to live. We must do all we can to ensure  left wing nasties are exposed and their beliefs highlighted and ridiculed. Nats have a real winner on their hands with the law and order card for next elections.  Lab rats have to sell policy promising to release dangerous violent repeat criminals early means only one thing.

    27 percent and falling.

    God bless, Ally

  • hilarious..!..

    ..garrett cites america as the example to follow..!

    ..that dystopian-mess of a country/crumbling-empire….. of the few worse than us in this area..of penal-failure..

    ..(and the attendant horrendous costs..both financial and social..)

    ..garrett relies on the ancient new york broken windows story to make his case..

    ..and ignores the elephant (still) in the  room of the current-fact..

    ..of steep drops in reported crime internationally.. both countries with harsh penal policies..

    ..and those not so..

    ..(this drop so far unexplainable by ‘experts’ in the field..)

    ..and the reason why garrett just studiously ignores such an irrefutable-fact..?

    ..that’s ‘cos he is spinning the bullshit that the drop here is down to his repressive/regressive penal-policies..

    ..a claim that is total and utter horse-shit…

    [email protected]

    • David Garrett

       Put yourself forward for selection as a candidate Phil…I’m sure the Watermelons or Mana would recognise your many talents and great learning, and give you a very high list place…

      • Blokeintakapuna

        He’s almost over qualified for Mana Party – but if he can try to bugger a few “barely legal” teenage boys – he could quite likely get a chance at being one of Labour’s “rising stars”


      •  instead of the boring/predictable ad homs garrett..

        ..why don’t you address the fact of the international steep drop in crime..that you are trying to claim credit for..

        ..readers here can

        ..they do know this self-regarding-myth of yrs melts away when confronted by that fact..

        ..a denial too far..that one.. are just looking not only deeply duplicitious..

        ..but also stupid…

        [email protected]

      • Evan Johnson

        Brilliant analysis David Garrett!!   Go back to Parliament, that is clearly where you belong.  Dynamic and stinging interjections could be expected!!

    • Agent BallSack

      Proof Phil? 

      •  i suggest you google it ..scrotum..

        ‘international steep drop in reported crime’ should get you there… garrett-archives/cache will do the same service..

        (whoar..!..that is a treasure-trove..! much i had forgotten…!..)

        ..i have challenged garrett on this five or six times..

        ..he just ad homs in reply…

        ..tolley is also spinning the same bullshit…

        ..trying to claim the echo of this international trend is down to the ‘good policing’ of this govt..

        ..both are telling outright lies…

        [email protected]

      • Salacious T Crumb

        Phil, are you suggesting that a repeat violenty offender or sexual predator should be given open ended opportunities to reform?

    • johnbronkhorst

      Yes phil…for all their problems (the USA), is now being led by the most leftist president they have EVER had, and their unemployment is at 9%, the debt is astranomical and much worst than when he took office….etc etc One fact remains 3S laws in the USA are working….and by the way…they are STILL the biggest economy in the world!!!

      • Polishpride

        Come on America is not being run on left wing policy not by a long shot. The Democrats are just a couple of degrees from the republicans and stile to the right of the middle.

      • johnbronkhorst

        polish…read again…”the most leftist president THEY have ever had”…Have you looked into the so called “Obama care”..and the fact that most of it is NOT about health!!! and that (very simillar to helen clarke) doesn’t EVER take into account of the COST of the health care it does talk about…ie VERY LEFTIST for the USA!!!
        Sorry guys …off the subject…I know!!

      • A-random-reader

        With all due respect, Obama inherited a complete “buggers muddle” from his predecessor.

        I’m genuinely surprised that he has managed to hold the US economy together at all.

      • johnbronkhorst

        To a random reader…the answer is….HE HASN’T!!! They will default if they continue!

    • johnbronkhorst

      Forgot phill…my usual insult…you are still an idiot with no real perception of what is going on in the world…who ignors the facts that don’t agree with his bumper sticker marxism!!!

      • Mr_Blobby

        Don’t waste too much time on him I skipped across to kiwiblog the other day to get a break from the Fool and he was there as well. They out number us 2 -1 for insults to the Whore some of them were very good, they have obviously had a lot of practice.
        If I had a choice between this drugs addled criminal, cut and paste artist and Dotcom. I know who I would be extraditing to the US.

    • Mr_Blobby

      Was enjoying the thread up to this point.

      Just when I thought it was too good to be true in comes our local pest.
      Our very own druggy criminal.
      Still doing nothing, to improve the lot of mankind.
      Still a net economic drain on society, with an ever increasing debt, that will never be repaid.

      I would say go get a job, but 1. Everybody else has already told you that and 2. We have a thing called the minimum wage and if an employer paid you what you were worth it would be less than you currently get on the benefit. In fact they would probably give you an invoice for your services.

      Now run along Whore real men are having a conversation here.

      Yes we are talking about you not to you.

      He Won’t and Can’t. I don’t think WINZ has an allowance to pay for deadbeats to run for office and who the fuck would vote for him.

      • Polishpride

        something said earlier about playing man and ball…

      • Mr_Blobby

        Maybe but sick of the Whore breaking up the thread’s, with his stupid games, and then I find out he is doing it at other blogs as well

      • Pukakidon

         Polishpride, What advice on the subject did the aliens provide you?  It would surely make more sense than net drain Phil.

        You can not avoid the evidence any longer and simply blame the mess on those that went before, there needs to be action and not just talk. Obama has done nothing to improve the US, he has taken them to the bottom.  

        We are now on the other side and have to suffer the situation of having to pick up the crap left by the last Labour government finance debacle and soft approach to law enforcement.

        The US are yet to experience this, but it will happen when Obama has gone.

      • Polishpride

        In Reply to Pukakidon
        They said throw out the whole system and work out what we want to see in a civilisation and start from there. Start by putting in place true democracy.
        Get rid of money altogether then in one clean swoop you get rid of poverty, you can feed the starving and the sex slave trade and human trafficking that affect over a million people are gone.
        Give everyone access to pretty much what ever they want afterall if the profit motive is gone there’s no need for planned obsolecence and things cn be designed to last.
        Release the free energy tech and learn lessons from nature when it comes to design and development.
        Get rid of modern farming it is inefficient  
        take laws back to natural law as a starting point and try not to impinge on anyones personal freedom.
        Oh and give your mum a hug
        There was a whole lot of other stuff too but I’ll ask them to put it into a digital format when the come for dinner on Sunday. Never would have guessed they’d love roast chicken so much.           

      • Salacious T Crumb

        I’ve heard of them. The Karl Marxians from the planet Politburo….Cant wait until we start our own farm collectives in our newly formed workers state.

      • Polishpride

        In Reply to Salicious
         Try RBE

      • Polishpride

        In Reply to Salicious
        all other isms have failed on a number of fronts- including Marxism and Capitalism.
        Time for  new system with a starting with true democracy 

  • Will

    Sorry, but I just can’t in any way see how you could claim the US penal system as being successful and a good model to follow…

    The recidivism rate for prisoners released from prison in the US within three years is 67.5%.  Not even taking the whole “war on drugs” and heavy-handed sentencing into account that leads to one of the highest incarceration rates in the world, it just seems to be failing miserably. 

    • David Garrett

       Will,  with respect, I don’t think you have read my post very carefully. I say that the US provides us with evidence of what works and what DOESN’T, and also shows us the faults and flaws in their 3S laws. In short, if California’s law is an amputation above the knee, ours is keyhole surgery.

      And I believe New York is an outstandingly successful example to follow, demonstrating  the efficacy of a combination of more police on the streets and sentence enhancement. Are you aware of the magnitude of the drop in crime in New York city, or for that matter in California?

      As to the impact of 3S on prisoner numbers, as usual the lefies carefully cherry pick the evidence and even the opinion (see my reference to Levitt and the “abortions” theory) I don’t have space to go into it in depth here, but according to the California Dept of Corrections, the effect of 3S on prisoner numbers in that state  is much exaggerated. For example, the lefties never mention that since 3S was introduced in 1993 the population of California has increased by almost 25%. The data – as opposed to ill informed opinion – is easy to find on the net.

      • Bunswalla

        Sadly David you’re wrong on that point. You only have to (try to) read anything by Phil Ure, Evan Johnson, Polishtripe and other assorted trolls to realise that ill-informed opinion is only too easy to find on the net.

    • johnbronkhorst

      and in which states is that??? Remember the USA is FEDERAL system where the STATES are responsible (mostly) for crime and punishment. To take a national average, over the whole country is irrelevant when many states still don’t have 3 strikes laws. You MUST compare states without 3S laws to states with 3S laws. This will also bring in Population figures more comparable to NZ.

  • Northkand wahine

    Crime rates increased in the greater Auckland area yet decreased in the Manukau district… Why? As a resident I believe it is down to good old fashion police presence. They are everywhere. And I ffor one, am bloody grateful.

    • David Garrett

       Another interesting thing you will never hear from the lefties is this. In 2009 (I think) there was a binding referendum in California on a proposal to water down their 3S laws to something very like ours – in other words to confine second and third strike offences to “violent felonies” only.

      The referendum (they call these “Propositions”) was soundly defeated, most heavily in poor black counties,  the residents of which had seen for themselves the effect 3S had had in taking “ganstas” out of their neighbourhoods.

      The Californians who supported watering down the law were the artistic elite of “naice” parts of San Francisco county,  where there is little crime anyway.

  • Gazzaw

    David, the gangs are perceived to be at the core of much of the of organised crime yet the gang fortresses remain largely untouched, drug distribution, protection rackets and all number of illegal activities carry on. Rural towns & cities have a massive gang presence. What’s the problem here? Is entrenched high level protection alive & well in NZ?   

    • Evan Johnson

      You could be correct Gazzaw.  Gangs now so well entrenched, part of the establishment.  Although when did I last see a gang patch – can’t remember.  Hey are they dressing like us?

    • David Garrett

       No Gazzaw, I genuinely dont believe that high level protection is “alive in well” in New Zealand – although a couple of incidences early in my legal career caused me some disquiet.

      I see this reluctance to act  against gangs  as  similar to the now infamous cases where police did not got into situations because they were “too dangerous’, and as a result, victims bled to death while waiting for help. I am thinking in particular of the liquor story owner in south auckland a few years ago because police would not let a waiting ambulance in. Even though it was well established that the offenders has long gone.

      I have a slight suspicion that now  the Police Commissioner some cops knew as “Broad Howard”  – due to his considerable girth – is no longer in charge, we might see that timidity re gang fortifications changing somewhat.

      • Salacious T Crumb

        I think you are right on this David. I have also heard first hand from sworn members the level of repeat offences being attributable to a small number of offenders. With the change (for better) in Police culture, I also expect a no-nonsense, hard line approach to the gangs. They are purveyors of human misery and should be treated as such.

  •  so garrett…still no answers to that international drop in crime
    [email protected]

    • David Garrett

       What is the homicide rate in Finland – the country you quote ad nauseum – Phil? Maybe you were away rolling a large spliff when I asked you that yesterday…eh?

      …and then proceeded to smoke it so you were unable to read until my comment rolled off the screen ….

      •  still avoiding the questopn.. does the reported steep drop in international crime firt in with yr story that the local echo of this is down to you..?

        ..please explain..

        [email protected]

      • interesting how a violent drunk-driving/dead-baby-i.d.-stealing/ crim-ex-mp can feel he has the right to sneer at/judge the use of

        ..and it was only a matter of weeks ago..the drunk-driving/risking innocent peoples’ lives..?..

        ..wasn’t it..?

        ..yr glasshouse hasn’t even got any intact panes..

        ..has it..?
        ..when will you seek help for your alcohol and anger issues..?

        ..this morning i flicked thru my whoar cache/archives on you..

        ..and there was so much most of us have

        …hones’ valedictory amused/was pertinant and to the point..:

        “Good riddance to that bastard. I shed no tear…”


        [email protected]

      • Grizz30

        Like you are in a position to judge Phil. You should take heed of your own statement about glasshouses.

      • Tom

        Phil, you are a convicted drug-fueled armed robber. You should have been shot in the back of the head in my opinion.

        Fuck off back to your own dimension.

    • johnbronkhorst

      So…phil…reporting includes, Syria, Afganistan, Darfur, Iraq, etc….Also international figures are grossly distorted. as I am old enough to remember the USSR stating catagorically that they DID NOT have a criminal drug problem…HA HA HA HA…many countries like them (for lying) today!!

      • David Garrett

         I believe there are no homosexuals in Iran and some central European countries either John…

      •  calm down you have any rescue remedy to hand..?

        i am talking about countries where the measurements of such trends are open/accurate..

        ..and they all show this sharp drop in crime..

        ..that garrett is trying to claim is down to him..

        ..and his repressive/regressive policies..

        [email protected]

      • johnbronkhorst

        no phil…you said..”drop in international crime…..”…..Which countries …idiot…It also depends what they call a crime…in Saudi Arabia…drinking alcohol is a crime……you are a genuine 100% fool. With NO idea of what you are talking about!

  • Evan Johnson

    David says:
    ”  While lefties often derisively refer to the US experience, I suggest we can learn a lot from that country – both what works and what doesn’t.”
    Take California for example?

    • johnbronkhorst

      Missed the point AGAIN Evan……you could win medals for stupid! or have the Olympic trials finished and the labour caucus got all the places!…..The article is about….Comparison with the wide variety of 3 strikes LAWS in the USA varying from state to state, and us cherry picking the best aspects and avoiding the worst. But even in the worst cases in the USA the crime rate has reduced under those states that have implimented 3 Strikes…again….IDIOT!

  • David Garrett

    Gott in himmel…why do I EVER try and engage with the phool? I must ask my therapist to increase my sessions to thrice weekly…

    •  stop obfuscating..and just blowing it out yr arse..

      ..answer the international drop in crime question..

      [email protected]

      • Philip ure a cock

        Fuck off and get a job you drug-fucked crim. Once you start contributing to society, then you can have the right to contribute to this discussion. You are such a cock!

  • Mr_Blobby

    Excellent post David I like your style.
    I did hear you speak at a law and order debate several elections ago.
    Phil Goff came first for knowledge of stats and policies.
    You came 2nd it was a bit heavy on the lock them up and short on detail.
    3rd was Simon Power, with a very light weight performance, who became Justice Minister, he was right out or his depth in the Job and it showed.
    4th was Pita Sharples, what a sad performance, his message was this problem with Maori crime is not going to be solved this generation; it’s going to take 2 or 3 generations.
    Don’t know if the Greens had anybody there or not if they did it was just a warm body.
    Just calling it as I saw it on the night, you have continued to refine your message and I do support what you stand for.

    • David Garrett

       I think I remember that one…out in Pakuranga or somewhere? Organized by the Chinese community?

      • Mr_Blobby

        Yes. Church hall next to Botany Downs Secondary School.

    •  “ was a bit heavy on the lock them up and short on detail…”

      even yr fan calls that…

      ..little has changed…eh…?

      phillip [email protected]

      • Mr_Blobby

        Whore you truly are a complete Fuckwit. I might have to start dogging you in the hope that we both get banned from the site, so the others can have some peace and intelligent conversation.
        Why don’t you get off the drugs and work at contributing to society in a positive way, you could start by paying back some of what you owe.
        How about going back to the people you terrorized in your criminal past, apologize and ask for forgiveness every day until they ask you to stop.

  • Evan Johnson

    I have been reading the April 2012 report.  

    It does seem counter-intuitive that crime should have decreased in so many categories since about 2006.2007 – at which time the Recession took hold.  

    The statistics on theft (in its various forms) could reflect the falling real cost of items frequently targetted like electronic goods and clothes.  

    Longer term, the demographics could be a factor – including the impact of abortion and family planning measures.  i.e. We are an aging population.  

    More analysis needed from somewhere – but where?

    • David Garrett

       Have a look at Levitt’s paper which I referenced in my original post. The one in which he identifies more police and more punitive sentencing policies as the top two factors (in that order) as the factors leading to the US wide drop in crime, and “more readily available abortions” as the fourth and least significant. Funnily enough chaps like you never quote him on the first two, only the last.

      “Economic performance” is listed among his six factors that had nothing to do with crime rates dropping. This is entirely consistent with recent evidence, such as that after the GFC when US unemployment skyrocketed, crime remained  static or even fell slightly. But you wont want to hear that either.

  • Evan Johnson

    Bronky, you have clearly not read the article in my link have you?  Let me quote from the blog for you:

    ‘   California’s three-strikes law has not reduced violent crime, but has contributed significantly to the state’s financial woes by substantially increasing the prison population, according to a University of California, Riverside researcher.

    Declining crime rates in California and nationwide reflect declines in alcohol consumption, not tough-on-crime policies such as three-strikes laws, says Robert Nash Parker, a sociologist and director of the Presley Center for Crime and Justice Studies at UCR.

    Parker, who is known internationally for groundbreaking research on the relationship between alcohol policies and crime, details those findings in “Worse Policy After Bad: How and Why California’s ‘Three Strikes’ is a Complete Failure as Crime and Economic Policy, and What to Do About Either,” which will appear in the spring issue of California Journal of Politics and Policy.

    Three-strikes legislation, which took effect in 1994, was intended to incarcerate so-called “career criminals” for 25 years to life upon a third conviction, even when the third offense was a nonviolent crime. California’s crime rate has been cut in half in the last 20 years — a decline that began two years before the implementation of three-strikes legislation.

    “Political leaders, activists, law enforcement personnel, and elected officials in California believe the state’s three-strikes law is the cause of this magnificent decline in violence,” Parker said. “That is not the case. Three-strikes has had nothing whatsoever to do with the drop in violent crime.”

    Analyzing national crime data, Parker found that crime in California has declined at rates similar to states with three-strikes policies and those without — including large states with no three-strikes laws such as Texas, New York and Illinois — and found little difference. “This suggests that whatever is driving the trend in violent crime over the last 46 years in these states it is not three-strikes policy,” Parker concluded.

    A National Institute of Justice review of three-strikes legislation found that California imprisoned roughly 300 times the number of inmates as did the state of Washington, which enacted a three-strikes law about the same time as California. California’s population is about 5.5 times as large as that of Washington.

    “Differences between California’s three-strikes law and those of Washington and other states explains this difference,” Parker said. “California increased its prison population significantly yet obtained roughly the same crime drop at the same time as states that had similar laws, but without their impact, as well as that obtained by states that did not pass any laws aimed at reducing violence through vast increase in the prison population.”

    In earlier research, Parker found that homicide rates nationally correlate with alcohol consumption and unemployment rates. Since the 1930s, an increase in alcohol consumption has occurred one to two years before an upturn in homicide rates, and has decreased one to two years before a downturn in homicide rates. Nationwide, alcohol consumption peaked in 1982 and has declined significantly and steadily since.

    “There is no justification for continuing three-strikes from a violence-prevention point of view,” Parker says. “My analysis suggests that alcohol policy designed to reduce overall consumption in California may be more effective at reducing violence than three-strikes or other criminal justice policy initiatives.”

    The economic impact on California has been devastating, Parker added. Although the state’s financial troubles are complex, three-strikes has amplified those problems by consuming an ever-larger portion of the general fund budget each year.

    For example, in 1985 spending on higher education consumed about 11 percent of the general fund, while prison funding accounted for about 4 percent. By 2010, spending on higher education accounted for less than 6 percent of total spending while prison costs consumed about 10 percent.

    The state auditor estimates that future prison costs attributable to three-strikes sentencing range from $19 billion to $23 billion annually, perhaps more, depending on how the state responds to the 2011 U.S. Supreme Court order to release 40,000 inmates from overcrowded prisons. In response to that order, the Legislature plans to divert most of those inmates to county jails, with the state bearing some of the costs.

    If inmates sentenced under three-strikes were released immediately, the state and counties would save about $1.3 billion immediately, and likely more in coming years, according to the auditor’s report.

    “If three strikes has resulted in all this incarceration and expense, yet has little to do with controlling crime, why not release these inmates?” Parker asked. “The state of California should give up its addiction to the all-you-can eat buffet of imprisonment, the result of which has been to undermine the financial health of the state, weaken the quality of education at all levels, and force California to make draconian cuts in programs that enhance and benefit the lives of its residents in exchange for a mistaken idea that public safety was the result. The bottom-line result of three-strikes has been an almost unbearable …   ‘

    • David Garrett

       Ah! A new “explanation”, the decline in alcohol consumption is behind the drop in crime!. I had forgotten in my main post the supposed link between the introduction of unleaded petrol and crime decreases 20 years later.

      Just one point from that extract: a rather typical example of leftie spin. The writer correctly notes that neither Texas nor New York are “three strikes” states …but then just fails to mention that both those states have sentence enhancement laws with different names, and which work differently from those in California. Texas example has a “three time loser” law…

      But I will read the paper.

      • Evan Johnson

        The decline in alcohol consumption away from the home would be a contributing factor.  Booze barns are gone.  Clubs and Pubs are struggling.  People buy at the supermarket these days, and drink at home.  

        I know that drugs relate to crime, but the prevalence of alcohol consumption outstrips drugs by miles.  

        As a current case in point, look at all the strife around Keisha Castle-Hughes and reports of her alcohol abuse.  Yet people read articles like that and think what a weirdo, not what a fun person! ask you this – is this likely to be the last we hear of her and the law?

    • johnbronkhorst

      Still an idiot…crime didn’t go up did it!!!!and besides the article and subsiquent comment , makes it CLEAR tha California is a case in point of what NOT to follow….you are still an idiot and went to all that trouble to quote this piece of irrelevance!

    • Mr_Blobby

      Read the first word, fell asleep woke up and read the last word. Unbearable.

      •  don’t want any evidence to confuse yr certainties blobby..? just stick to the simplistic-slogans..

        ..we don’t want you getting no

        [email protected]

      • Super_Guest

        Fuck off you sanctimonious piece of beneficiary shit. If anyone here is speaking in simplistic slogans it’s you. You spend your time reading left wing conspiracy sites in stead of getting a job like a real man. You’re a disgrace.

        I don’t know why you flatly refuse to type like a human being, probably so you can get banned and claim to be “repressed” but fucking stop it. You’re an illegible idiot.

      • Mr_Blobby

        Made enquiries about replacing Dotcom with Whore . They won’t have him something about Drugs, Armed Robbery, Low Character, Nothing to offer, the list went on and on. It would appear that NZ is his prison; nobody wants him even for a short time.
        This is what happens when you have nothing to offer society.

    • Polishpride

      This actually in my view has some merit as an arguement. Since the lowering of the drinking age there seems to have been an increase in violence (in and around wellington CBD at least apologies I haven’t looked any further)
      When you stack Alcohol up against Cannabis and look at the impacts to society  impartiality it beggars belief that Alcohol can be illegal but Cannabis not.
      regardless I do think that they got it right with the application of 3 strikes in NZ with the focus on violent crime. So long as it stays that way all good.
      Remember when tourists were able to hitchhike in this country safely….

  • Michael

     As a resident in Washington state in the US (at least for the moment) one of the things that makes the place much safer is the ability to defend yourself and your property with lethal force if necessary. Why risk getting shot just to break into a house and steal a TV?

    Many of my friends don’t even bother to lock their houses (and this is in suburban Seattle) because the chance of burglaries is so low.

    • johnbronkhorst

      Is burial of the criminal the responsibility of the home owner, coroner or SANATATION dept (my favorite)…just put himout with the rest of the trash.

  • Mr_Blobby

    The only proviso I have for that policy, is that the body should fall inside the property not out.

  • Freek

    david garret has 1 more strike I think….assualt, drunk driving…
    lucky he got off the first one eh..
    fucking hypocrite, should be double bunking

    • johnbronkhorst

      Your undue anger at his has me assuming this law (3 strikes) has effected you personally!

      • David Garrett

         Well, its affected close to thousand violent felons now John…we have two second strikers serving time  at last count, each of whom committed their SECOND strike offence while they were on bail awaiting sentence for the first….and in each case the second offence was the same offence for which they had received a conviction and first strike warning. I think even some of our anonymous leftie commenters might thing such offenders are best in jail?

  • stop just obfuscating and blowing it out yr arse garrett…

    ..answer the international drop in crime question…

    [email protected]

    • Super_Guest

      Stop typing like an illiterate fucking five year old and give us the proof of this international drop in crime. No, I don’t want to Google it, I want you to provide the proof, the proof that it wasn’t just a drug fueled hallucination.

      Tougher penalties have lead to a crime rate lower than any point during your lots politburo. It would seem it’s best to keep criminals like you off the streets.

      And accusing Garrett of obfuscating? That’s the pot calling the kettle black. Hows the job hunt going you fucking waste of money? Still spending my cash on drugs and an internet connection? You have no moral high-ground, being a leech on society, being the kind of person who is dragging us all down. Stop being such a loser and contribute something other than a failed news aggregation site.

      •  you also can blow it out yr arse as hard and long as you

        ..but yr refusal to take the simplest of steps to find out such an important/relevant fact for yrslf…

        ..dosen’t change those facts one iota..

        ..can you see anything down there..?

        ..with yr head stuck in the sand..?

        ..or is it just stuck up yr arse..? you also use the fists in the ear/nyah!..nyah..!..nyah..!..i can’t hear you!’ method of avoiding facts you don’t want to hear/know..?

        [email protected]


      • David Garrett

         And this is the clown who when it suits him rails against “ad homs” from others…

    • Mr_Blobby

      Whore you truly are a complete Fuckwit. I might have to start dogging you in the hope that we both get banned from the site, so the others can have some peace and intelligent conversation.
      Why don’t you get off the drugs and work at contributing to society in a positive way, you could start by paying back some of what you owe.
      How about going back to the people you terrorized in your criminal past, apologize and ask for forgiveness every day until they ask you to stop.

  • George

    Answer the call of the wild Phillip and shove off.


  • i looked at yr link..s.g…

    ..and it is full of evidence of the ‘steep international drop in crime..

    ..what couldn’t you read..?

    (anyway..must go now..parliament commentary-time..)

    [email protected]

    • Super_Guest

      No. It’s not. It’s mostly half baked studies which I know you haven’t read (because you can barely write) and about halfway down the first page the subject becomes less and less to do with the search. You’re full of shit, Phil. Get a job and stop lying on the internet.

      • Agent BallSack

        You searched that term? I’m not doing Phil’s fucking job for him he continually talks about ‘cherries’ and how he finds them, well a man with his superior social media skills should have filled this page with links by now. 

      • Super_Guest

        That’s far too close to work, ABS. Phil’s allergic to that.

    • Mr_Blobby

      Whore you truly are a complete Fuckwit. I might have to start dogging you in the hope that we both get banned from the site, so the others can have some peace and intelligent conversation.
      Why don’t you get off the drugs and work at contributing to society in a positive way, you could start by paying back some of what you owe.
      How about going back to the people you terrorized in your criminal past, apologize and ask for forgiveness every day until they ask you to stop.

      • David Garrett

         Genuine question Mr B…what does “dogging” mean in this context??

      • Mr_Blobby

        To follow someone closely (not in a sexual way)

  • Boss Hogg

    David – Great post, Thank you.  I currently live in Singapore and have done some reading of the countries history from 1950’s.  Did you do research into the policing policies and criminal law in Singapore?

    It is striking to me that I can go two or three weeks without seeing a single police officer and the homicide rate is extremely low.  Many people criticise Singapore laws but by some miracle all crime is low.  

    • David Garrett

       Thanks Boss. No, I had a trip to Singapore lined up, but had to cancel it because the Nat’s decided to try and take all the credit for 3S passing, and leave none for ACT! So I had to stay here and try and remind everyone that it was an ACT initiative, and the Nats initially didnt want a bar of it.

      In addition to Singapore, Japan is another example: another “inconvenient truth” for the left,  as capital punishment is frequently used there. Although it is not a “western” country, neither is it a repressive regime  of the kind those opposed to the death penalty like to wheel out whenever they make the claim that the US is the only western country which still practises it. What they REALLY mean is “The US is the only first world country in which white people are the majority of the population where the death penalty is practised. All the other countries who do it are totalitarian regimes”.  Japan, Singapore, India,  Malaysia and several small carribbean countries are conveniently ignored.

      • Boss Hogg

        Capital punishment aside (which I do personally agree with as it happens), it is clear that Singapore have managed to adapt what was fundamentally English law into a simpler system that expedites the criminal law process and is also more prescriptive to the judiciary.  Some of the penalties are minimum and consecutive sentences are common.  Also, the criminal courts have no Jury system – the Judge has all the power.

        A lot of cases are resolved in a single hearing that take place within weeks of the offence and a high number of offenders seem to provide guilty pleas early.

        Can we not learn more from this obviously efficient system.  The criminal huggers will not have the stomach for any of these changes, but as Lee Kuan Yew says about these sort of systems “Just because something is good does not mean that it will work, if something works that proves that it is good”.

        The system here works for the greater good.  

    •  fascist-singapore rsident/fan..

      ..and happy..

      ..that figures..blob..that figures..

      [email protected]

      • Boss Hogg

        Phil – you would have got 10 lashes and 10 years for your deeds.

        BTW – I just paid my terminal tax today to ensure I make the 7 April dead line – but you know nothing of this system do you?  You use our tax to waste our time – Piss Off dickhead.

  • David Garrett

    Now that he’s buggered off or a while we can resume the debate..there ARE in fact places where there have been genuinely “unexplained” drops in crime which seem unrelated to any change in policing or sentencing policy either way. But two points about that:It is unexplained to everyone, including the crim huggers.  Although the theories abound (we have covered some of them today) and new ones pop up all the time,  there is no clear EVIDENCE…except that there seems to be a general correlation between more police and more punitive sentencing. So as I say in my main post, looking at the US – and now here – it is only “unexplained” if you start with the assumption that it is NOT better policing and sentence enhancement which has caused it. 

    And his claim that what is happending in NZ is a mere ‘echo’ of the “unexplained’ drop in crime internationally is demonstrably bollocks; I think even he would agree – between spliffs – that from 2008 on there was a general toughening of criminal justice policy – on bail for example, sentences for particular crimes, and 3S. “Draconian” became the word emerging from Labour and Green mouths every time we debated a law and order Bill. But now 2.5 years after that change in policy direction began – immediately following the 2008 election – we see a reduction in crime and a concurrent reduction in prisoner numbers – both incidentally the exact opposite of what Workman and his ilk predicted.

    I note Kim still hasn’t told us when his predicted doubling or tripling of prisoner numbers as a result of 3S will begin….and I know he reads both this blog and Farrar.

    BTW that “Six factors….” paper by Levitt is well worth downloading and reading.

    • Evan Johnson

      I still think that other global trends are more significant.  It is difficult to analyse because there are so many variables in the system.  But demographics is one.  Attitudes and legislation is another.  Lots of leisure alternatives – espcially in blogs and chat rooms – that could be another.

      It is easy for anyone to take credit when causality is impossible to prove or disprove.

    •  hilarious..!..

      garrett finally admits there are ‘unexplained’ international trends..

      ..and then goes on to claim credit for those ‘unexplained’ steep drops..

      ..this is kinda like the monty python dead parrot sketch re-writ..

      ..i am in the cleese role..

      “..look…a large drop in crime..internationally..unexplained’..”

      garrett:..’no it’s not…i did it..’


      [email protected]

      • Mr_Blobby

        Whore you truly are a complete Fuckwit. I might have to start dogging you in the hope that we both get banned from the site, so the others can have some peace and intelligent conversation.
        Why don’t you get off the drugs and work at contributing to society in a positive way, you could start by paying back some of what you owe.
        How about going back to the people you terrorized in your criminal past, apologize and ask for forgiveness every day until they ask you to stop.


    For fuck sake,here we go again.Phil,please provide your own evidence that what has been posted is untrue/false.At least then we can reduce the number of waste of space posts asking for an answer from David.He has put up what he has here for all to see.So if you feel he is wrong then produce evidence of such.Cheers happy easter to all,and enjoy your hunting Cam.

    • Boss Hogg

      Has evreyone paid their end of FY Terminal tax due on 7 April.  I have and it made me think about our mate Phillip – I won’t tell you how that made me feel.

      Phil – I know that you will stand proud down at the WINZ office everytime you go in to reafirm the lies you tell them to keep the free money flowing – now where does that money come from ???  Majic …….eh !!

      Bludging Arsehole.

  • Evan Johnson

    And so we reach the end of Maundy Thursday.  David Garrett’s thoughts disappear from view ……………aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

    • David Garrett

       Another nasty little leftie…folks, that’s what you get for even attempting to engage with them…

      • Evan Johnson

        What makes you think that the RIght is proud of you David?  Are you really one of their best advertisements?  Had you paid your full dues to society (before the parliamentary system found you out)?  

        Are you going to run for Parliament again?  Your skill at the ad hominems would suggest you would be stunning value in Parliament, if only for the interjections!

        Are you still in the ACT Party?  Or are you on the slippery slope and now in the National Party?  I was thinking this was a possibility, given that Slater Junior is now providing you with this virtual soapbox!

  • seems to me

    Seems to me that a reference point on effectiveness of 3 strikes might be some sort of world survey:-)
    There is such a thing..(long winded URL sorry) lots of data to consider. My take would indicate that world crime is generally declining;%20filename=Hakapaino_final_07042010.pdf&SSURIsscontext=Satellite%20Server&blobwhere=1266335656647&blobheadername1=Content-Disposition&ssbinary=true&blobheader=application/pdf

    •  evidence-alert..!..garrett..!..

      ..quick..!..start insulting..!

      ..get that messenger..!

      phillip [email protected]

      • Mr_Blobby

        Whore you truly are a complete Fuckwit. I might have to start dogging you in the hope that we both get banned from the site, so the others can have some peace and intelligent conversation.
        Why don’t you get off the drugs and work at contributing to society in a positive way, you could start by paying back some of what you owe.
        How about going back to the people you terrorized in your criminal past, apologize and ask for forgiveness every day until they ask you to stop.

      • Karlos

        Phillip, did you even read the link provided?
        Figure 16 seems to show theft is on the decrease, but violent crimes (such as the one you commited are on the increase globally.

  • that really is all you’ve got blob..?

    [email protected]

    • Mr_Blobby

      Whore you truly are a complete Fuckwit. I might have to start dogging you in the hope that we both get banned from the site, so the others can have some peace and intelligent conversation.
      Why don’t you get off the drugs and work at contributing to society in a positive way, you could start by paying back some of what you owe.
      How about going back to the people you terrorized in your criminal past, apologize and ask for forgiveness every day until they ask you to stop.

  • 00

    What you all fail to state is that whatever sentence someone receieves they all get out one day. Wouldnt it be better to offer real rehabilitation in prisons instead of pretending it is offered. Howard League are planning to offfer reading and writing classes in the Spring Hill facility unfortunately this place has no library. More waste

    • Boss Hogg

      You are assuming that some criminals might want to learn.  Rehabilitation suggests that the criminal may have had some useful abilities at some time that they need to be reintroduced to.  I suspect that these cases will be a very small minority.

      Why not look to a successful system for guidance.

      Drug users and addicts get support and education on first offences.  Punishments after that.
      Drug dealers hang
      Murderers hang
      Violent crime – cane then prison
      Drunk Driving – often 2 yrs loss of licence on first offence – can be less.  2nd offence often jail.  and upward on 3rd etc.

      Recidivist rates – VERY LOW

      You know where.  Less waste.  Results.

      • Evan Johnson

        Yeah right Boss.  Something like the systems you find in South East Asia.  The Rattan in Malaysia for example.  Let’s start beating everyone up.  Bring back corporal and capital punishments.  The Stocks.  The Guillotine.  The Thumbscrews.  The Inquisition.  Remote Convict Settlements.  Robbin Island.  Devil’s Island.  

  • dad4justice

    Who killed Kristy Bentley Mr Garrett?

    • Evan Johnson

      Not seen you around for a long time Dad 4 Justice.  How’s life?  Got your justice (or just desserts) at last, have you? Are you involved in that new political party still – just forget the name?  

      • dad4justice

        Are you Graeme Taylor ( big bruv) ?

  • Evan Johnson

    David says “Although the theories abound (we have covered some of them today) and new ones pop up all the time, there is no clear EVIDENCE…except that there seems to be a general correlation between more police and more punitive sentencing.”

    More police should see the crime rate INCREASE, with increased resourcing you get better coverage and less cases abandoned through lack of resourcing.

    Better SOCIAL SERVICES might help with crime rate.  Some prospect there if we were to look into it.

    More punitive sentencing has never been shown to be a major deterrent because most criminals believe they will never be caught.  Any prospect of prison is in theory a deterrent – I mean 10 years is a fair chunk of one’s life for major crimes.   

    More police can lead to more wasted resource.  Look at the Mr Plod exercise on that noble NZ immigrant Kim Dotcom.  He wouldn’t hurt a flea, would he?  And he met the immigration criteria for such outstanding cabinet ministers as the vastly experienced Maurice Williamson, and the equally talented Jonathan Coleman.  He automatically gets the approval of Cameron Slater as well – why are the over-resourced pollice bothering this dedicated family man???