One News Poll – Gotcha politics doesn’t pay


It looks like Labour hasn’t learned that smears and attacks on innocent people aren’t well received by the voting public.

The first ONE News Colmar Brunton poll taken since the General Election last november reveals that National’s popularity remains intact, despite the on-going ACC controversy.

The polling was done in the period of Nick Smith’s resignation, the on-going ACC controversy, and questions being raised over the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) restructuring.

Despite this, National’s party vote support is at 51%, up 1% since the previous Colmar Brunton poll. This would see the party with 65 seats, enough to govern alone.

The Labour Party was up one percent too, to be at 29%. The Green Party rose one percent, to be at 11%.

Tim Watkin is scathing:

The latest One News-Colmar Brunton poll is a kick in the pants for Labour. After a ministerial resignation and a fortnight where the whiff of cronyism was never far from National’s door, it can still command more than 50 percent support in the polls. That’s astounding.

The real pain must be felt by Labour. While National is under attack from within and ministers are looking rugged, to say the least, the opposition isn’t benefiting. Voters clearly don’t yet see Labour as a viable alternative government. David Shearer is not the ‘go to’ guy for voters to run to. Some inside Labour may say ‘give us a chance, it’s only April’. But if they can’t make hay now, when can they?

The problem is that even a damaged National Party still looks more attractive to most voters than Labour. Voters are looking at National in turmoil and still ticking their box. If that’s not a signal that Labour needs to up its game dramatically, then I don’t know what is.

The problem with Tim Watkin’s assessment is that contrary to what Labour would like to think the party isn’t warring with itself. It is united and there isn’t some sort of internecine warfare going on.

In fact a mass membership party like National will always have robust discussions. Right now it is pretty much one way traffic in an almost unanimous rinsing of Michelle Boag and those who call her a friend…a precious and thankfully small number. Everyone is united in making sure National remains the government despite the silliness of corrupt bullies like Michelle Boag and Bronwyn Pullar.

Labour can put this poor result down to the fact that Trevor Mallard decided to ignore his leader and run a baseless smear against me and Simon Lusk in parliament, and defame Judith Collins outside of parliament.


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  • Boss Hogg

    NZ First still defying gravity.   The rest looks logical.

    • Agent BallSack

      Come on, without Winston we would be left with the Labour Party to provide light comedic relief in the House. And that’s no joke!

  • Sam Hill

    The latest 3 News Roy Morgan poll had National at 48.5% (59 seats), and two weeks later this Colmar Brunton poll has National at 51% (65 seats).

    3 News has Labour on 30% (36 seats) while TVNZ has them on 29% (38 seats). Weird huh?

    This is because of New Zealand First slipping below 5% in the Colmar Brunton poll.

    I don’t think there is any significant shift in voter opinion at the moment. We can simply see that NZ First being on the cusp of the threshold has a big effect on the seat projections.

    And we all know how far out the polls were with NZ First’s popularity in the election.

    The Left will need to take a hard look at themselves if National continues to have bad publicity and their popularity remains steady.

  • Harry

     This ACC scandal or whatever is just one big yawn fest to me. I’m a bit of a political junkie, at least I think I take more of an interest than the heaving masses, but I’ve just totally switched off from it all and have got my kicks out of grabbing a few bites of nice weather and cricket before its goes dark for another 6 months.The only recognition was passing Nick Smith in his car on the hill on the main drag by Nelson College when I was across there a couple of weeks ago a few days before it all went down for him. Also if David Shearer is the next PM I think I’ll be bored into going into hibernation for three years.

    Meanwhile, the world keeps spinning and NZers keep ripping each other off. I’ll steal and extort from you and you can pass it on to someone else seems to be the new normal in this country; the No. 8 wire culture is now the ripoff and extort culture. The left wing is very much part of this problem not a solution to it, and more than 50 percent know it that’s all.

  • Peter Wilson

    In fact, the ACC and Nick Smith scandals may turn out to be the best thing to happen to National.

    We’re still early in the election cycle and voters aren’t ready to consider their vote yet, and are sticking to the status quo.

  • Phar Lap

    Notice the Doom Post has mentioned the new poll.Also notice that bastion of lies THE NZ HERALD.has completely ignored it.Shows they are always crapping in their views and are completely in Liebours camp,which seems to suit most of their almost unemployable news hacks.

    • Kosh103

      The poll came out tonight.

      Wanna give them 5 min to write a story/opEd before bitching?

      • Phar Lap

        Ok KOOKOO 103

      • Bunswalla

        OK kosh, 10 hours later and it;s still being completely ignored. There are opinion pieces prominently displayed from John Armstrong (Body blows have National reeling) and McCarten (ACC, media mess have left on right track at last) that show Granny Herald’s true colours in all their pathetic glory.

        Is 10 hours enough Kosh? How long do you think we should have to wait?

    • Gazzaw

      Can’t see that much world shaking news has happened on Pravda’s online front page since the Colmar Brunton result at 6pm. Nothing’s changed apart from the fact that Keisha Castle-Hughes may have breached one of her bail conditions. Such are the priorities at Pravda.

    • Michael99

      They didn’t publish the Roy Morgan poll of March 14 which showed National up 3% and Laour down 1.5%

      • Gazzaw

        Prediction. Monday morning page 3 – single column 2cm.

  • Timandtim

    Yes national needs to sort a few things out.
    Labour does not have any policies. The are going to go around the country and garnish off the public.
    Will I will help labour now with a few subjects.
    Law and order

    Not a bad start

    I don’t vote based on leaked emails

    • Super_Guest

      Labour’s only ever had two policies: “Take other people’s money” and “spend other people’s money”.

      • jay cee

        same as national which has been shown to be ” look after your mates and look after your mates”

  • AngryTory

     This would see the party with 65 seats, enough to govern alone.

    Time for Key to deal to the leftist scum once and for all. 

    Take the bait: call a snap election, get rid of the Maori Party, watch as the Greens and Labour destroy one another, then with the resulting majority National can finally drive through the kind of budget & reforms we all know NZ really needs! 

    no more Unions; no more Labour; no more DPB; no more Dole; no more Super; no more civil servants; no more SOEs; no more state “schools” or “hospitals”.  

    Deal with NZ’ leftism once and for all.  They’ll never be a better time!

    • Kosh103

      No more democracy going by your post.

      • Troy

        Democracy is communism by stealth anyhow.

    • victoria

      ummm you are a complete nutter

  • Greg M

    In an uncertain world, people want a bit of stability.

    I remember Muldoon saying in 1975 ” you don’t govern the country with a gentle smile, you govern it in the house, with policy, and they don’t have any policy”

    Fast forward 37 years and Labour still hasn’t learned this.

  • Cactus Kate

    Ultimately the conclusion of the ACC matters is that the Nats are happy to piss off their own to ensure there is no cronyism. Crusher won’t give in that even if piss weak Nick Smith did and wrote a silly letter,

    The beltway seems to have forgotten that point. The cronyism was stood up to and smashed.

    The public like that.

    • jay cee

      as mike williams said on Q+A once people have had a chance to absorb the cronyism aspect you will start to see a steady erosion of nats support. so don’t start crowing just yet.

  • Captain Crab

    The other problem for Labour is that the public associate them with MUNZ . I think it’s pretty clear all of Akld and most of NZ despise that union and see through their bullshit.

  • Peter Wilson

    Labour’s problem is really that the public don’t really care about politics at the moment. If it was in election year it would be a different story.

    Every the Nick Smith scandal, and party’s bullying of Pullar/Boag doesn’t seem to have had an effect. ;)

    And I’m picking Collins will drop her libel action against…who was it, oh yes, everyone….As highly respected journalist Anthony Hubbard pointed out, Judith claimed some things about Benson-Pope – in Parliament.

    • Michael99

      Hubbard is only “hihly respected” by the extreme left. HIs weekly columns consist of nothing but vitriol against National in general and Key in particular.

      He and others of his ilk in the media are one of the reasons National’s support is increasing. National Radio should more properly be called Radio Labour and the Herald and Herald on Sunday have been so blinded by Key challenging them over the teapot tape that they seek any opportunity to denigrate he and the Government. All this results in most people realising the Government is not getting a fair go from a media which they see as part of the Opposition

  • Stroker08

    Shearer was doing a walk around the Gladstone School Gala yesterday which is smack bang in the middle of his electorate, and was heaving with voters. I decided to shadow him for a while to see how well he could work his constituents. The result? Hopeless. He just wandered around in his lavender shirt, with a big shit eating grin on his face (which looked a little forced) and no one went up to him to shake his hand, and he didnt look like we was going to approach people either.

    To say this guy is invisible is an understatement. The guy is more than invisiable, he is anti-matter, and there is not a single law in physics that can be bent far enough to give him any presence what so ever. He is a fucking ghost in a lavender shirt.

    The left’s attempt out out Key, Key is failing in the very electorate is should be the strongest.

    • Peter Wilson

      Pity you didn’t have a video with you…..

  • Cullen’s Sidekick

    The best news I have heard after last year’s election result!!! Stuff it you left loonies. Good to see Matt McCartern, John Armstrong, Mark Sanisbury and the other left leaning media, radio and TV stations keeping their tail between their legs and staying quite. Thanks for those 51% for teaching them a lesson about playing dirty politics. Now in the Labourer’s camp, BBQs will be pulled out in winter……

  • BW_Lord

    Great post off the sub-standard, having a dig at all the prophets pulling all sorts of pro labour delusions out of these results:

    Wonker …

    2 April 2012 at 3:00 pm

    Man, I see in the Standard the strongest and smartest men [sic]
    who’ve ever lived. I see all this potential, and I see squandering. God
    damn it, an entire generation pumping out posts, writing comments;
    slaves with keyboards. PR has them chasing polls and rumors, trawling
    through muck they hate so they can make up shit they don’t need. They’re
    the middle children of history, man. No real purpose or place. They
    have no Great War. No Great Depression. Their Great War’s a spiritual
    war… their Great Depression is their lives. All been raised on
    clusterf*ck television to believe that one day they’ll make a
    difference. But they won’t. And they’re slowly learning that fact. And
    they’re very, very pissed off.