What National losing 4% means

National’s political mismanagement has been highlighted by many including travel blogger David Farrar. The latest Roy Morgan Poll shows National is down 4%.

Every 1% lost means a loss of roughly 350 votes. So 4% means a loss of about 1400 votes. On these numbers the four closest seats in the country will be lost to Labour.

Waitakere BENNETT, Paula (NAT) 9
Christchurch Central WAGNER, Nicky (NAT) 47
Waimakariri WILKINSON, Kate (NAT) 642
Auckland Central KAYE, Nikki (NAT) 717

In a caucus already light on women National look like losing another four, including two cabinet ministers and one who is rumoured to be the next minister appointed.

Tomorrow I will cover how many List MPs will lose their seats.


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story.  And when he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet.   Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet, and as a result he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist that takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him.  But you can’t ignore him.

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