What National losing 4% means

National’s political mismanagement has been highlighted by many including travel blogger David Farrar. The latest Roy Morgan Poll shows National is down 4%.

Every 1% lost means a loss of roughly 350 votes. So 4% means a loss of about 1400 votes. On these numbers the four closest seats in the country will be lost to Labour.

Waitakere BENNETT, Paula (NAT) 9
Christchurch Central WAGNER, Nicky (NAT) 47
Waimakariri WILKINSON, Kate (NAT) 642
Auckland Central KAYE, Nikki (NAT) 717

In a caucus already light on women National look like losing another four, including two cabinet ministers and one who is rumoured to be the next minister appointed.

Tomorrow I will cover how many List MPs will lose their seats.


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  • Guest

    No whale- what it means is Labour rorting the polling.

    • Kosh103

      What a load of crap. What did Labour do? Put a tap on every single phone in the country, then when they heard someone talking to Roy Morgan – broke in and took the phone off them and answered in favour of Labour?

      Also given the Greens rose as well, were they in on your tinfoil hat rort?

      Suck it up, it looks like the polls are starting to move in the correct direction.

      • Gazzaw

        One swallow doth not a summer make Kosh. I’ll believe it when I see the next couple of polls.

        Got any swallows yet this weekend Cam? They are Aussie imports so you should be OK with Chris Trotter. 

      • Kosh103

        Thats right Gaz, it doesnt. And I said as much in another thread. That we have to wait for a few more polls before we can say this is a trend.

        However, while one swallow does not make a summer – it does suggest there is a change of season coming.

      • Fergus

        and yet, every poll that has gone against labour…has been followed by rigging alegations by idiots like you and the rest of you leftist friends.

      • starboard

        wouldnt surprise me at all kosh , liarbor are so bent crooked and dishonest they would stoop to anything to get back into power ( which is highly unlikely anytime soon ). Suck it up.

      • Kosh103

        Not by me fergus.

        And starboard, its a bit soon for you tobe blathering in panic.

      • starboard

        its funny..whenever Nat drop a bit in the polls kosh and ure go into orgasim mode and start blowin on about the beginning of the end..the tide has turned…Nats are doomed…liarbors on a roll…the greens are sprouting, next poll Nats are back up to 50% and not a squeal from the fearless duo…what does it all mean…eh?

      • Kosh103

        I suggest you read what I post star, as opposed to making stuff up.

      • nellie

        In reply to Starboard’s comments “its funny..whenever Nat drop a bit in the polls kosh and ure go into orgasim mode and start blowin on about the beginning of the end..the tide has turned…Nats are doomed…liarbors on a roll…the greens are sprouting, next poll Nats are back up to 50% and not a squeal from the fearless duo…what does it all mean…eh?”Sounds like Manchester City supporters…..

  • BJ

    would –could–might–may but surely not ‘will’ lose their seats?

  • mattyman

    I doubt Kate Wilkinson will loose her seat on a swing less than 5. She now has the all important incumbent status. Cosgrove is an old man, he’s held it for four straight elections. I imagine it’ll be very hard for him to increase his personal vote any more than it is, especially when he got 44% of the vote compared with 23% party vote. 

    21% of National voters voted for the incumbent, do you really think that’ll remain the same when he’s lost his seat?

  • David

    With Liabour essentially static and those votes going to the watermelons would it make much difference in the electorates.

  • Cullen’s Sidekick

    Whale Oil, can you publish the parliament seat allocations bases on the Rouge Morgan poll? Any poll which shows Greens at 17 percent is dodgy. It would have looked credible if the loss from National had gone to Labour.

  • Apolonia

    The big problem for National is, who will their coalition partners be in 2014.

    • Super_Guest

      Depends. When will the “changes” to MMP brought about by the review come into effect? If the threshold is dropped to 2.5 then the Conservatives have a real chance of getting in. Also depends on Winston. It only got so close last year because Winston got back in. If the MMP reviews don’t come in for 2014 and the threshold stays at 5%, then if Winston doesn’t get back in and National pulls more than (Green+Mana+that other party who I can’t quite remember) then they’ll get in anyway, which seems very possible.

      • Apolonia

         Changes, if any will be recommended to parliament by the end of the year.

    • starboard

      mite as well be liarbor…they are both steering to the left..what a joke nat lite have become.

    • Kosh103

      Good lord, are the right finally waking up to what I have been saying for the last week or so now.

    • Peter Wilson

      The light dawns for another one…….

      Just dreaming to think voters will return anything like 46% again….especially with the scandals swirling aroung them.

  • Valerie

    Means? Nothing. These polls are less and less reliable. 

  • Balanced View

    An accusation has been made on The Standard that Simon Lusk is posting as Whale Oil.
    Whale, can you confirm that unless otherwise stated (guest posts), all posts on here are from you directly?

    • Whale

      A test only based on Balanced Views post above.    IT IS NOT WHALE.  I post as Dave.

      • Dave

        Hmmm just provides, anyone can post as whoever they like.  

        Again, above is NOT whale.

      • Dave

        Cant even change it back to me now……. 

    • Super_Guest

       You’re clearly a drop-kick if you think anything said on the Standard is worth repeating outside of tinfoil hat land.

    • All posts unless stated as a guest post are posted by me, all posted, even Guest posts are loaded by me.

      Many, many people send me ideas for posts, some maybe just links, others a couple of paragraphs.

      Simon and I share our politics.

      Anonymous smears from The Standard hold no truck with me. I own every word I post, every single word. I stand by every single word.

      • Peter Wilson

        I stand by every single word

        Please….don’t do a John Key on us WO…might be too much info…lmao

      • Balanced View

        Thanks Whale. Appreciate the response. As I thought.
        On another note, do we get a hunting tally update?

  • jay cee

    so lets see, if a poll shows the nats to be in a comfortable position numbers wise well then all is right(pardon the pun) with the world and super spook is in his heaven. woe betide the pollster who says the opposite, they must be a “leftie” who rigged the poll no other explanation is possible.
        pity the above is a bit long it would make a great tuis ad.

    • Super_Guest

       Tui ad jokes were old about a month after they originally showed up. Only mediocre left wingers would think they are being “clever” parroting them. Case in point, lifelong mediocrities Clare Curren,Trevor Mallard, etc, etc.