What 44.5% means for National

Friday?s Roy Morgan Poll had National down to 44.5%. This means it is down 2.5% on the election.

As far as List MPs go 44.5% means that National will lose 3 to 4 List MPs. On current rankings this means Tau Henare, Chris Auchinvole, Jacqui Blue and Cam Calder would all miss out.

On these numbers National would lose four electorates. Each percentage is worth about 350 votes meaning National would lose the following seats.

Waitakere
Christchurch Central
Waimakariri
Auckland Central

This will likely make it even more difficult for aspiring new candidates to get in on the list as these MPs will get priority over new MPs.

38%