A reader asks:
What are common signs that your campaign/selection will fail and thus you should quit that particular selection before wasting time and
There are a number of factors, starting with what your competition is like. A good candidate who has done the hard yards within the electorate in an ethical manner will be very hard to beat, as Jami-Lee Ross demonstrated in Botany.
The next thing is whether you have the personality to win to begin with. Some people just do not have it, and should be looking for a backroom role. If you can’t walk into a room of people you don’t know and enjoy it then running for public office probably not for you.
Note that the party likes having a lot of candidates, even if they are not up to it and are just cannon fodder. It is best to get independent advice from experienced people who will tell you the truth about your chances, rather than relying on people in the party hierarchy who will always tell you to have a go even if you are a terrible candidate. The truth may hurt but will save you a great deal, in embarrassment and money in the long run.
Age also plays a part. If you want to be on the front bench you will need a long career, yet if you are in your mid fifties you will probably not be wanted on the front bench.
Look at the current caucus and consider who has been promoted and who hasn’t, and if you look like the many who haven’t been promoted then you probably will be a backbencher for your entire career.