Nate Silver thinks the election is a done deal:

We’ve now been running our presidential forecast model for almost two months, but very little has changed in our analysis of the race. Each day, we have shown Barack Obama as a modest favorite to win re-election. At no point has projected margin of victory in the popular vote been smaller than 1.7 percentage points, or larger than 2.7 percentage points; it was 2.3 percentage points as of Tuesday evening’s forecast.

The Electoral College is the most important thing to watch and that is locked very firmly in Obama’s favour.

We’re not yet at the point where the economic index sees Mr. Obama as an underdog for re-election — it should be remembered that incumbent presidents tend to get quite a lot of credit from voters — but it does see an extremely close race and is exerting some slight downward pressure on his forecast. That is why Mr. Obama’s margin over Mr. Romney in the Nov. 6 forecast — which accounts for economic factors along with polls — is slightly lower than his now-cast, which is based on the polls alone.

Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6 were 65.9 percent as of Tuesday’s forecast, down slightly from 66.9 percent on Monday.

My bet with Leighton Smith still looks safe.


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.