Stable

? FiveThirtyEight

Nate Silver thinks the election is a done deal:

We?ve now been running our presidential forecast model for almost two months, but very little has changed in our analysis of the race. Each day, we have shown Barack Obama as a modest favorite to win re-election. At no point has projected margin of victory in the popular vote been smaller than 1.7 percentage points, or larger than 2.7 percentage points; it was 2.3 percentage points as of Tuesday evening?s forecast.

The Electoral College is the most important thing to watch and that is locked very firmly in Obama’s favour.

We?re not yet at the point where the economic index sees Mr. Obama as an underdog for re-election ? it should be remembered that incumbent presidents tend to get quite a lot of credit from voters ? but it does see an extremely close race and is exerting some slight downward pressure on his forecast. That is why Mr. Obama?s margin over Mr. Romney in the Nov. 6 forecast ? which accounts for economic factors along with polls ? is slightly lower than his now-cast, which is based on the polls alone.

Mr. Obama?s chances of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6 were 65.9 percent as of Tuesday?s forecast, down slightly from 66.9 percent on Monday.

My bet with?Leighton?Smith still looks safe.

 

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