Which National MPs could leave John Key up Shit Creek?

Reshuffles always mean bruised egos. Ministers given the arse get all sooky. Aspiring ministers see a vacuous, useless, drunken fool promoted ahead of them and start looking at options outside of parliament.

Seat Winner Loser Margin
Waitakere BENNETT, Paula (NAT) SEPULONI, Carmel (LAB) 9
Christchurch Central WAGNER, Nicky (NAT) BURNS, Brendon (LAB) 47
Waimakariri WILKINSON, Kate (NAT) COSGROVE, Clayton (LAB)  642
Auckland Central KAYE, Nikki (NAT) ARDERN, Jacinda (LAB) 717
Maungakiekie LOTU-IIGA, Peseta Sam (NAT) BEAUMONT, Carol (LAB) 3,021

When you have a one seat majority like John Key does you have to be mindful of what happens if someone decides to jack it in to pursue opportunities in the private sector, or sit on the cross benchers or generally just cause havoc from within caucus.

MMP is a strange system where if a list MP leaves they are replaced by the next person on the list, but if a by-election in a seat held is lost there is no replacement on the list.

This means if any of Paula, Nicky, Kate, Nikki or Sam decide to leave parliament National loses a seat if they can’t win the by-election. None of these seats are National seats, they are seats held by the personal popularity of a MP who has done the time required in the electorate.

That bribe for the Maoris better be a really, really big one Prime Minister.


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.

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