Which National MPs could leave John Key up Shit Creek?

Reshuffles always mean bruised egos. Ministers given the arse get all sooky. Aspiring ministers see a vacuous, useless, drunken fool promoted ahead of them and start looking at options outside of parliament.

Seat Winner Loser Margin
Waitakere BENNETT, Paula (NAT) SEPULONI, Carmel (LAB) 9
Christchurch Central WAGNER, Nicky (NAT) BURNS, Brendon (LAB) 47
Waimakariri WILKINSON, Kate (NAT) COSGROVE, Clayton (LAB)  642
Auckland Central KAYE, Nikki (NAT) ARDERN, Jacinda (LAB) 717
Maungakiekie LOTU-IIGA, Peseta Sam (NAT) BEAUMONT, Carol (LAB) 3,021

When you have a one seat majority like John Key does you have to be mindful of what happens if someone decides to jack it in to pursue opportunities in the private sector, or sit on the cross benchers or generally just cause havoc from within caucus.

MMP is a strange system where if a list MP leaves they are replaced by the next person on the list, but if a by-election in a seat held is lost there is no replacement on the list.

This means if any of Paula, Nicky, Kate, Nikki or Sam decide to leave parliament National loses a seat if they can’t win the by-election. None of these seats are National seats, they are seats held by the personal popularity of a MP who has done the time required in the electorate.

That bribe for the Maoris better be a really, really big one Prime Minister.


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  • This from Wilkinson via the Nat Party news page:

    ““Naturally, I am disappointed by today’s news but I support the Prime Minister in his choice of a new Cabinet.
    “It has been an honour and a privilege to have served as a Minister in the National-led government and I am proud of my contribution to Cabinet over the past four years. I now intend on putting all my energy into continuing to serve the people of Waimakariri as their local MP. Waimakariri has some significant challenges, particularly following the earthquakes, and I am committed to doing what I can to help steer the electorate through these challenging times.”

    No further comment will be made at this stage.”

    No other MPs have commented yet after the PMs announcement

  • Meg

    I wonder what Phil Heatley is thinking at the moment.

    • Gazzaw

      Like any executive given the arse for inadequate performance I guess Meg. It happens in the real world on a daily basis.

  • Gazzaw

    Why would Sam Lotu-Iiga resign his seat WO? You obviously know something that I am not aware of. Because he hasn’t received a Cabinet post maybe? Does JK know something that we don’t about Sam’s future plans – the Auckland mayoralty maybe?

    I’m not convinced that Maungakiekie revolves around Sam’s ethnicity. The electorate demographics have changed and continue to change as Onehunga, One Tree Hill & Ellerslie become ‘gentrified’. That trend has now started in Mt Wellington & Penrose. Don’t get me wrong, Sam is a tremendously popular electorate MP and he would be a major loss to the community but I don’t believe that it would be sufficient to totally erode his 3000 majority.

  • Hazards001

    So if when a list MP leaves they are replaced on the list by the next MP explain Brendon Horan? Or doesn’t it count when they are told to leave by the person whose coattails they got in on is the one doing the telling.