10 reasons why National remains high in the polls

John Armstrong has listed his 10 reasons why National continues to remain high in the polls.

1. John Key’s sky-high rating as most preferred Prime Minister

The first factor is Key’s sky-high rating as most preferred Prime Minister. This is crucial in drawing many tens of thousands of uncommitted voters plus those with weak attachments to other parties to tick National. The “brain fades” and other lapses of last year, a horror year for him and National, seem to have had little, if any, effect on Key’s personal rating.

Which shows why Labour are deluded in thinking continued attacks on John Key will get them across the line. It has failed for 6 years straight, you’d think they had learned by now.

2. Key’s moderate conservatism – not sure I’d call John a conservative.
3. Key is unashamedly pragmatic 

a word that used to be anathema to purists who stood four-square behind Sir Roger Douglas and Ruth Richardson in the 1980s and early 1990s. No longer. Ideology takes a back seat with Key. There is no lecturing of the public as to the kind of policy prescription that ought to be swallowed. There is instead a “no surprises” approach, by and large. And the Government does what it says it will do.

Labour were astonished when Key firstly set the election date months in advance, and then further astonished when he said he’s campaign on asset sales. Labour are more comfortable with duplicity preferring instead to hoodwink voters whereas John Key just tells them straight.

4. Neutralising of troublesome issues rather than allowing them to linger and fester.

John Key uses three ministers to sort out problems. Judith Collins, Stephen Joyce and Tony Ryall.

5. A majority of voters view National as the better manager of the economy.

Labour’s recent private polling has confirmed a majority of voters view National as the better manager of the economy. They are likely to continue to do so in uncertain economic times. Why? Because Key and Bill English have a proven track record in handling crises, like the Christchurch earthquakes, in a calm and unflustered fashion.

This is assisted by the fact that Labour’s necessary partner wants to get the printing presses fired up and David Cunliffe thinks companies should be taxed on turnover rather than profit.

6. Good at maintaining momentum
7. National is still largely defining what the arguments are about in most policy areas

Labour are still trying to fight on the basis that they believe John Key is slippery. Their main attack though has been destroyed by the mubling and forgetful David Shearer.

8. Opposition parties are instead still devoting considerable time and effort to fighting battles they have lost

such as partial privatisations. Or trying to land hits on National by raking over the coals of history – Solid Energy being the prime example.

Asset sales was campaigned on in the election, National won. Solid Energy may well become an own goal after the release of numerous documents on Friday that people are still wading through. If my name was Trevor Mallard I wouldn’t be too happy with cabinet papers from 2007.

9. Public getting acclimatised to the rather chaotic nature of minority government

This is helped by the fact that National is such a large bloc in the government and the other parties are very minor. The same cannot be said for the other crowd. For them to win there will be larger bloc of the Green taliban and Labour, plus Winston, plus a few hangers on…possibly Maori to get over the line. If voters think the curent government is chaotic wait till they get the other side in charge.

10. Few, if any, issues that are seriously divisive and on which National finds itself stranded on the wrong side of the argument for ideological reasons

Voters may be more tolerant, if not forgiving, of politicians’ occasional lapses. Hekia Parata had to get an awful lot wrong before she lost the public’s confidence.

Crucially, there’s no mood for change, the real government-killer, or even much hint of such a mood developing. National may still lose next year’s election, but only because of an absence of coalition partners. Its real enemy is MMP mathematics. It can’t do much about that.

Well they could actually try for 50%.


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  • unsol

    “David Cunliffe thinks companies should be taxed on turnover rather than profit”

    I thought Silent T had been sidelined so his input was now irrelevant?

    But as for the above – my goodness, talk about gaining financial literacy & logic from a weetbix packet.

    What a brilliant idea…almost as good as bringing in a top tax rate of 39% & leaving the loopholes wide open for 9 years so the rich rorters to take the mickey; taxing turnover is blatant theft. To remove the right of businesses to deduct all eligible revenue generating expenses is a sure fire way to ensure they go bust.

    Honestly, what a moron. Just when you think the left couldn’t get any more stupid, I mean seriously, do these guys all have IQs at or below the official level of mental retardation (70)? It sure seems that way.

    Re the 10 points – couldn’t agree more.

    • Phar Lap

      Yes to make it worse Cunliffe aptly named, has a face and attitude on him like a death adder,looks very angry and sick.His eyes tell the tale a mongrel from the gutter.Not hard to see why no one in Lie-bour like or will support him except two other sick fucks Clayton Cosgrove and fuckatruss Darien Fenton.the sheila with a mans face.

    • Rodger T

      Heh heh,its morons like Cunliffe and Cullen that are the reason I work for Charlie Ash whenever I can.

  • Gazzaw

    Reason 11: Even the most hardened labour supporter knows that in order to secure power in 2014 Shearer will have to sell his soul to the greens. That’s too high a price to pay for many labour supporters. They have as big a fear as any sane person that to have Russel Norman as Finance Minister and Deputy PM would be disastrous for NZ.

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      Gazzaw – Labour will do anything to return to power. Even if this means Deputy PM and Finance Minister role to that loser Norman. They will sell their soul

      • Gazzaw

        The party will and that’s why centrist voters won’t go for labour. The polls may give 30%+ to labour currently but you wait until it comes to putting it in writing on election day knowing that a tick in the ‘labour’ box means a tick for Norman as Finance Minister. Won’t happen! Labour is just as short of a credible partner as National.

  • Apolonia

    National will need coalition partners if they want to be in government after the 2014 election.
    What were Shearer and Winston talking about when they went on holiday together?

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      Winston – You can take any portfolio you want! We are guaranteed for 9 years of power under the stupid MMP !!! Lets rock!

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    Finally Moon Armstrong has written that makes sense. I like his last point specifically.about Emperor losing 2014 election due to MMP numbers. Very simple equation for Emperor. Eliminate Winnie the Poo and win again.

  • StupidDisqus

    Whale: I’ve said it before and I’ll no doubt have to say it again and again:

    For them to win there will be larger bloc of the Green taliban and Labour, plus Winston, plus a few hangers on…possibly Maori

    There is absolutely no precedent in New Zealand under MMP for the largest party not forming government. if National is the largest party, but does not form government, more than half of the population will consider that government illegitimate.

    There are a range of options in that situation – a grand coalition, a fresh election, executive rule by order in council under the Reserve Powers – but a coalition of the losers – a coalition excluding National cannot be one of them.

    • thor42

      “…a coalition of the losers – a coalition excluding National cannot be one of them.”

      I hope you are right.
      My preference is for the Nats to win again (with the help of United Future and Act) but it would also be *great* to see Shearer and co roll up to the GG’s place, expecting to get into power, only for the GG to pour cold water on their hopes.

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        thor42 – The coalition of Sheep/Norman/Winnie/Mana will have more MPs than Naked Emperor & his maniac partners. Winnie needs to drop below 5%, otherwise Naked Emperor won’t win 2014 election, National cannot expect to get more than 43% in the election

  • StupidDisqus

    2. Key’s moderate conservatism – not sure I’d call John a conservative.
    3. Key is unashamedly pragmatic

    Translation: Key is a spineless socialist

    I think the only hope for NZ is a narrow win for John Key – so it’s clear National know they will be f**ked at the next election. And then just like Hellen they decide to forget about being reelected and make the changes the country desperately needs

    * unions banned; union political parties banned.
    * full privatization of all assets including hospitals & school buildings.
    * all state schools turned into fee-paying for profit charters.
    * end to welfare – including super. Not just for “new entrants” – immediately for everybludger
    * end to WFF, ACC, EQC, and all the rest
    * councils turned into for profit city corporations run like any other company
    * end to all corporate taxes and FBT
    * GST up to 20%; real flat income tax rate – $10,000 per person (or 20% of income from the first $).
    * no representation without taxation!

    (OK, what’s my actual hope: narrow loss for Key but National by far the largest party; mass unrest thanks to teachers & nurses striking, being fired en mass; state of emergency declared & Key & Joyce rule directly through the executive council – ideally after having appointed Ruth or Don Brash GG. Then do the same policies but wound up to 11 :-)

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      Sheep victory in 2014. FULL STOP

      • Agent BallSack

        You missed the full stop ☺

    • Dumrse

      Unashamedly pragmatic = spineless socialist. Did your Dad tell you to write that or are you really that fucking thick ?

      • Troy

        the latter I think… maybe had nothing to do!

    • PlanetOrphan

      Good call, sack every Government employee and disband the government full stop.
      Open Gun shops on every corner, and allocate 50% of all land area to cemeteries.

      Next time some Fwit pisses you off, Just shoot them and their maggot scab family.
      You’re the one that’s gotta bury them tho, otherwise you’ll get shot.

      Progressive / Bold / Directional gaurateed winner policy.

  • Mr_V4

    Add to that – many of the oppositions MPs make raw sewage look appealing.

  • manuka416

    Reasons 2 and 3 keep me a fanboy.

  • toby_toby

    “David Cunliffe thinks companies should be taxed on turnover rather than profit”

    I was not previously aware of this fact. What a moron Cunliffe is.