Chart of the Day – Exactly how wrong global warming forecasts have been

The Daily Mail has this chart showing just how wrong all the doom sayers were with their predictions of global warming. Never mind that even on that graph the supposed temperature rise is barely even a half a degree over 50 years.



No, the world ISN’T getting warmer (as you may have noticed). Now we reveal the official data that’s making scientists suddenly change their minds about climate doom. So will eco-funded MPs stop waging a green crusade with your money? Well… what do YOU think? 

The Mail on Sunday today presents irrefutable evidence that official predictions of global climate warming have been catastrophically flawed.

The graph on this page blows apart the ‘scientific basis’ for Britain reshaping its entire economy and spending billions in taxes and subsidies in order to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. These moves have already added £100 a year to household energy bills.

Steadily climbing orange and red bands on the graph show the computer predictions of world temperatures used by the official United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The estimates – given with 75 per cent and 95 per cent certainty – suggest only a five per cent chance of the real temperature falling outside both bands.

But when the latest official global temperature figures from the Met Office are placed over the predictions, they show how wrong the estimates have been, to the point of falling out of the ‘95 per cent’ band completely.

Varying fears: In 1977 we were warned of the ‘next ice age’, now we are warned that the planet is getting dangerously hot

The graph shows in incontrovertible detail how the speed of global warming has been massively overestimated. Yet those forecasts have had a ruinous impact on the bills we pay, from heating to car fuel to huge sums paid by councils to reduce carbon emissions.

The eco-debate was, in effect, hijacked by false data. The forecasts have also forced jobs abroad as manufacturers relocate to places with no emissions targets.

A version of the graph appears in a leaked draft of the IPCC’s landmark Fifth Assessment Report due out later this year. It comes as leading climate scientists begin to admit that their worst fears about global warming will not be realised.

I wonder if we will ever get an apology for all their lies?



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  • Jimmie

    No Apology WO. AGW will morph into some other disaster scenario with the end result that tax payers will continue to be gouged to pay for troughers.

    They should offer stocks on ipredict on what the scenario is likely to be? Too much salt in the oceans? Volcanos? Earthquakes? Plagues?

  • kohibruce

    Surely the 100 prominent NZer’s pressure group and chohorts in the msm can’t be wrong?

    • BigDes

      Of course not. They will be able to come up with a new cause while they wipe the egg from their faces.

      • kohibruce

        Regrettably, the sort of factual information presented above by WO never makes it into the Horrid or other local msm – so the so called prominent NZ’ers don’t even know that they have egg on their faces. But no doubt you are right – time to find another cause for taxing and socialising society.

    • jonno1

      Several on that list of 100 should know better and it’s a mystery why they’re there at all. But some of the others, well…

  • In Vino Veritas

    Hmm. There are many out there that say that Don Elder of Solid Energy was paid way to much, and he should be giving some back, even though he grew the company to where it was before coal prices and the exchange rate tanked. The Green Party have made it into the Parliamentary trough by wailing about global warming, then climate change, and done nothing to increase the wealth of the country (in fact, they want to decrease it and take us back into the dark ages). How many of these dropkicks will be voluntarily handing back some of the money they have been vastly overpaid whilst spouting a whole load of unproven nonsense? No one should hold their breath given they wouldnt use their own personal money to intitiate the citizens referendum on asset sales, rather they used your and my money to to do it.

  • Andy

    It’s pretty hard to undo 30 years of propaganda

  • Brian of Mt Wellington

    Isn’t the earth heating up and cooling down something that has been happening for millions of years. What would these people have said when the glaciers started melting after the ice age.

  • cows4me

    How will we ever get honesty when it comes to this bullshit,when those making the most noise receive plies of taxpayer funds to support their lies. It’s like a fucking dog trying to catch his tail. The government funds the research and needs a certain prognosis,the government feeds the scientists and the scientists ( most are ball less wonders ) are more then happy to provide the correct answers. I note Sky news Australia is claiming their precious carbon tax is shutting down one business a hour . Soon the only pricks that will have work are the government lackeys that bark on command

    • Roger

      I think having the front page of a major UK tabloid shows the worm has turned. It will be difficult for the Tories, Labour or the LibDems to continue the AGW crusade and support it with carbon tax, ETS. whatever. Once “white van man” leaves you it is all over. Not one of the major parties will be able to make a credible AGW response.

  • Andy

    There is quite a long and technical article on the GWPF website by Dr David Whitehouse on the 15 year (ish) pause in warming. One interesting tidbit was that it was Prof Bob Carter (a Kiwi) who first noticed this pause in 2006 when AGW frenzy was at its highest level.

    • and who was then vilified for say it out loud

      • Andy

        any mention of Bob Carter in warmist circles immediately induces foaming at the mouth

  • AnonWgtn

    I see that the MSM is using Jim Salinger again, an independent analyst, who lost his job with NIWA for “ostensibly” falsifying the New Zealand figures to the Climate Change Panel.
    Has he won his case for wrongful dismissal ?
    Why cannot the media use accredited analysts from say NIWA rather than a disgraced ex employee.

  • tarkwin

    There were three self professed boffins in the Horrid this morning beating the usual climate change drum. I reckon they know their figure are wrong but they’re too scared to say anything because if they do their cushy jobs will evaporate and they might have to work for a living. Surely this is fraud?

  • Cadwallader

    Lord Monckton is in town in a couple of weeks. A must see!

  • TraceyS

    The following excerpts are findings from a recently published study titled “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature”. (Humluma, Stordahlc & Solheimd. Global and Planetary Change; Volume 100, January 2013, Pages 51–69).

    “The coupling from changes in atmospheric CO2 to changes in temperature appears to be weak. The rate of temperature increase often decreases when the amount of atmospheric CO2 increases…”

    “In general, we find that changes in atmospheric CO2 are lagging behind changes in any of the five different temperature records considered.”

    “As cause always must precede effect, this observation demonstrates that modern changes in temperatures are generally not induced by changes in atmospheric CO2. Indeed, the sequence of events is seen to be the opposite: temperature changes are taking place before the corresponding CO2 changes occur.”

    This concurs with studies of ice cores showing that temperature increases precede CO2 increases. One mechanism suggested by the above authors is that warming from increased solar radiation leads to the ocean releasing more CO2.

    It makes for interesting reading.

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