Chart of the Day – Global Warming? Where?

The evidence is mounting that all the models the world claimed proved the science was settled have been nothing more than a fantasy.

Courtesy of John Christy, and based upon data from the KNMI Climate Explorer, below is a comparison of 44 climate models versus the UAH and RSS satellite observations for global lower tropospheric temperature variations, for the period 1979-2012 from the satellites, and for 1975 – 2025 for the models:

CMIP5-global-LT-vs-UAH-and-RSS

Clearly, there is increasing divergence over the years between the satellite observations (UAH, RSS) and the models. The reasons for the disagreement are not obvious, since there are at least a few possibilities:

1) the real climate system is not as sensitive to increasing CO2 as the models are programmed to be (my preferred explanation)

2) the extra surface heating from more CO2 has been diluted more than expected by increased mixing with cooler, deeper ocean waters (Trenberth’s explanation)

3) increased manmade aerosol pollution is causing a cooling influence, partly mitigating the manmade CO2 warming

If I am correct (explanation #1), then we will continue to see little warming into the future. Additional evidence for lower climate sensitivity in the above plot is the observed response to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption: the temporary temperature dip in 1992-93, and subsequent recovery, is weaker in the observations than in the models. This is exactly what would be predicted with lower climate sensitivity.

 


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  • cows4me

    So how many trillions has that little graph cost?

  • Pissedoffyouth

    You can’t just post a chart like that Whale, you forgot the line for “amount of hot bullshit pouring out of Greenpeace”

  • Rodger T

    Damn it, I was looking forward to being able to grow me own Bananas and Papayas without having to build a greenhouse.
    Another bubble burst : (

  • The world will look back on this era and laugh at us for creating computer games and then panicking that the computer game said the world would end unless we did something to change the planet.

    • Hazards001

      Y2K and thermonuclear obliteration anyone?

  • Guest

    Anyone know what caused that massive dip in the early 90’s? Durrh, just read the whole article now, please disregard.

    • Never in the dark…..

      As is described above: lower climate sensitivity in the above plot is the observed response to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption

  • Patrick

    So the only time the models matched the actuals was when using historical data – i.e. these so called experts haven’t got a clue, their modeling is way off & they are just making shit up to suit their political aims. Isn’t that a suprise?

  • unitedtribes

    But if they can carry the lie a few more years the cry will be. “All our publicity is finally working the temp is levelling off. We’v saved the world. More funds please”

  • PlanetOrphan

    looks like saw tooth wave form to me.

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