Two polls – Two different results

Who would know where the polls are at the moment. I have decided that I won’t reference Roy Morgan anymore. Their polling has become extremely erratic and their refusal to join the polling body just confirms my suspicions. It wouldn;t matter if they showed National above 50%, I will no longer mention their crack fuelled polling.

TVNZ One News Colmar Brunton poll shows a drop for National. I’d suggest their February result was a bit out of kilter, so the drop is not as big as they are making out.

one_news_colmar_brunton_graph_21_april_N2

 

Labour will try to claim this is because of their constant dripping tap of GCSB and also their power policy. However polling was completed well before they released the policy. 

TV3 paints a different picture:

TV3-poll

If an election were held today, National could govern alone.

The latest 3 News/Reid Research poll shows the ongoing political controversy involving the Prime Minister’s spy agency has done little to damage his government’s popularity.

Mr Key’s been under sustained pressure. It’s been all about Kim Dotcom and illegal spying again, chasing him at home and abroad, in China.

But it doesn’t matter, because on this poll National is still on top and could govern alone.

“I think it’s a pleasing result,” says Mr Key.

Mr Key dismisses it all as a Labour attack on him.

“They see me as inextricably with National, so that’s the plan. I think what the poll shows is that a lot of New Zealanders have seen through that.”

I can’t wait till we see the polling that results from the destruction of Kiwisaver accounts, and Winston’s shameless bid to steal those same accounts to assist in re-nationalising power companies.

The stupidest poll comment was David Shearer stating on TV3, “I think John Key is just talking out of his uhmm…ahhh..mouth”

 


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  • Pete George

    Mixed results are probably a good result as the polls over the last
    few days were taken before the NZ Power announcement so are largely irrelevant already.

    • JC

      Agreed. SSM, power and migration (courtesy of the Boston bombers) will take a while to work through the system. As I heard tonight JK was gleefully calling out the “far left” on power and thats very defendable now. Winston should be able to get some traction on migration. The Conservative party should be able to do something with SSM, Boston, migration and Muslims.

      Now is a good time for parties to try out some slogans in the run up to the elections and I think Key has a good chance of defining Labour early on.

      JC

  • I do not quite believe the TV3 poll – much as I would love to! haha!

    I think what the polls do so show is that Labour struggles to get over 1/3rd support – they have absolutely no crossover appeal whatsoever; not even the whiff of the white middle class channel-surfing or trying them for size.

    They are a niche party of loyalists (people who have always voted Labour), beneficiaries, low income earners, polynesians and losers.
    No businessmen, no professionals, no aspirational young couples, no provincial city men, (actually bugger all White heterosexual men over 30 support Labour at all)

  • GregM

    Bit of a meaningless poll really. This latest shit from the greens/labour is a game changer, the next poll will be the interesting one. Also, I would imagine that a lot of NZF voters would be looking at buying MRP shares, so Winnie threatening to by it back may not go down well with his people.
    Despite what I have said, National needs to pull finger out of it’s arse and start calling the shots, instead of playing second fiddle to the opposition parties all the time.

    • Tony

      Good point – indeed, this could be the issue that allows the nats to strike out in the right direction without having to kow tow to Maori Party – who seem to have remained very quiet regarding this issue.

  • Travis Poulson

    How’s this for a genius statement from Sheep:

    “John Key’s just talking out his mouth (really David? his mouth?) I don’t think anybody really listens to his politicking”

    He’s reached a new level of dumb.

    I believe the term is “talking out his arse”. #sheepfail

    • Macca

      LOL Trav – I couldn’t believe Sheep actually said that! Is this the same party that kept inferring how John Key was a klutz and was going to embarrass NZ on the world stage!

      Imagine Sheep and his followers going to China on that trade mission…..better still, don’t!

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        Sheep to Chinese PM – “Errr….grrrr…..I am so happy to visit Taiwan…ummmm…sorrry….Tibet…ohhh…China..”

        Then commie will start to scream in the background – “gimmie my flag, gimmie my flag..”

    • Phar Lap

      Quite right he has made such a fool of himself and Nosy Parker has not helped him with his completely misleading comments on the power bribes,he is suffering from a bad dose of mad dog shite,aided and abetted by the suck hole commie Norman from joke green party.

  • Pete George

    Conservatives don’t seem to have picked up all the National supporters who didn’t like the marriage bill yet.

    • Where are they going to go? Labour? Nah…Why would the Conservatives get them…they won’t repeal it, in fact Colin Craig would be more likely to go with Labour on his policies.

      And why blame National, they were split about 50/50, no whipping because it was a conscience issue. Anyone who changed their vote on the basis of gay marriage really should have their vote taken off them for being so stupid.

      • Pete George

        There are a core of Conservative supporters who think smacking and marriage equality will get them in to parliament next year.

        That ignores the fact that the economy is likely to be the biggest deciding factor (and unemployment).

        And Labour think a $4-6 dollar a week power bribe will do it for them. There online activists really think it’s a winner for them.

        • Jimmie

          I don’t think big issues will decide the level of support for the Conservatives next year – it will be if Craig is able to garner a niche block of voters (like Winnie the liar) to sneak them over the 5% mark.

          At this stage its quite a hill they have to climb however the after affect of the gay marriage saga may push more into the Conservative club (Including myself)

          I do find it interesting that Craig has been pretty quiet over the gay marriage drama – I would have that that would have been up his alley to comment on.

          Overall though I would prefer to see National govern next year with support from Dunne & the Conservatives than the red/green/Winnie fruit salad nightmare.

          • Colin Craig is hoping to dupe people like you. He won;t and can;t repeal it. He is on record as saying he won;t repeal. The man is a charlatan politically. You hit the nail on the head when you said he is like Winston.

          • Jimmie

            I’m not looking to him to repeal it WO – not gonna happen until society swings back to old fashioned vales which isn’t going to happen anytime soon.

            I just want a National government for a third term which carries on its steady economic path without so many social engineering dramas.

            And National plus Winnie the liar would end in as much grief for the Nats as 1999.

            I know you think that Craig isn’t trustworthy but what options do the Nats have? Winnie = Untrustworthy. Act = Gone burger. Dunne = One man band. Maori = scary if they became the tail that wagged the dog.

            So yeah that leaves the Conservatives – I’d be happy to give ’em a chance as there ain’t any credible alternatives.

          • Colin Craig isn’t credible

          • An independent with Nat backing here in Epsom would work to get the seat and up the numbers.

        • Gazzaw

          The online labour activists commenting on Hickeys diatribe over at the Horrid think it will do it for them too. Anyone noticed that the labour rent-a-comment mob at the Horrid really get stuck in with the up-votes for the first twenty posts or so then it drops away to bugger all. Obviously their concentration span is very limited.

    • The Marriage Equality issue will be the same as the anti-smacking one: It gets people all worked up, but it’s not the kind of issue that causes you to change your vote.

      • Gazzaw

        Single issue voters are a waste of oxygen.

    • Apolonia

      Some if not most of the polling period would have been before marriage was redefined. Nice increase for the Conservatives though, still NZs 5th largest party and gaining on Winston First.

    • rockape

      I think many people will realise that ACT and the conservatives are a sideshow. Unless they bring with them several MPs then all they will achieve is getting Labour/Green into power, a wasted vote.

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        rockape – We need ACT’s one vote. That could be the difference between JK returning to power versus the Communists taking over.

        • Ururoa

          Yeah but can you see anyone voting for John Banks ever again? Been caught with his pants down too many times. Who else can they put forward? Reincarnate Brash?

          • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

            Bring back Richard Prebble!

  • Phar Lap

    Watched the guy on Television LIE-bour Party alias TVNZ. Name of Corin Dann ,he virtually looked like he would cream his pants as he read out the poll.I thought being a LIE-bour Party channel ,which has spent the last month denigrating John Key,to hear one of the cue readers say what a surprise result.Seems to get the figures to agree with TVNZ merciless attacks on NZ Prime Minister they must have done the poll in South Auckland after feeding the polled, massive buckets of Kentucky Fried Chicken,thats how LIE-bour usually does it on General Election Days.Lets face it on TV1, Nats down a few points.TV3 up, enough to govern alone, with an increased majority from 2011.

  • cows4me

    If the TV3 poll is to be believed National should seize the day and deal to the commie arseholes. Snap election, lets see the commies fill their pants.
    As for the mumbling piece of jelly, we know JK is talking, you we are not sure about.

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    “I think I grr…me.. just talking out of my arse uhmm…ahhh..” – Sheep explains his new found popularity to the unwashed.

  • Mr_V4
    • Travis Poulson

      No shit, it’s linked in the post.

      • Mr_V4

        So is this the new standard of mod. behaviour around here?

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    Thank God, TV3 poll saved Naked Emperor’s backside. If TV3 also followed the same pattern as Morgan and TV1, the left wing media would have written the obituary for Naked Emperor and his gutless cronies. I am starting to get tired of John Key now. Here is a business savvy PM, who can talk numbers, economy and business deals in his sleep. Who are up against him? – A sheep who cannot speak two sentences together. A communist with 18th century ideas and a old wily politician who thrives on controversies. Naked Emperor should be having a field day, instead he is behaving like an idiot.

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    Now the left media (Vomit McCarten, Peter Hickey et al) will swing to support Sheep and Commie Norman’s communist policy on power as the saviour for NZ. The sheeps of NZ will start to believe and the next poll will show National dropping to 38%

  • LabTested

    WO. Can you please run a class in Understand Polls 101. They seem all over the show. I am not asking you to prove that National will win despite the polls. I am genuinely confused about how numbers can be so far apart from different polling companies with trends going in different directions.

    This is important heading into an election, plus understanding the impact that policies may or may not have on the numbers

    • It comes down to methodology…polls that swing wildly tend to indicate something is wrong with their methodology…good accurate polling tends to be steady, yes they pick up changes…but are TVNZ really suggesting that in two polls the electorate has swung massively upwards and then massively downwards…I simply can’t believe wild swings like that. Colmar Brunton i suspect have changed something and now they are get Roy Morgan style massive swings…that said I think 3 News is a tad high as well.

      • Travis Poulson

        So esentially we either ignore all polls because they’re fucked or support the most favorable one to our politcal leanings and call the rest rogue polls.

      • The changes to methodology are an increased weighting towards Auckland.
        In short – since the election there is no National/Labour swing whatsoever outside of Auckland, but a small 2 – 3% swing inside Auckland.
        Therefore to back up their anti National bias – they simply survey more people in Auckland which show things closer than they really are, and that is the story.
        In about August of next year they flick back to ‘proper’ sampling nationwide – and so the pre election polls have some degree of accuracy.

      • rockape

        Of course cam massive swings are more newsworthy. Can you immagine if the polls said for 6 months, Well this weeks results are the same as the last 6 they wouldnt last long.

  • Whafe

    These polls delivered tonight pretty much sum up how I feel about politics in NZ this week. It is a cluster fuck…

    I have been absolutely wild re the electricity BS policy the opposition announced this week. It is shocking shocking behaviour…

    With a vast number of the voting public of NZ not giving a dam about this GCSB & Kim DotCon crap, John Key & National should be hammering Mumbles Shearer & Conman Norman into the ground… Get into it National, take these fools out

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    I understand from Labour Party insiders that Sheep has called for a meeting with Commie Norman, Winnie the Poo and Horny Hone to discuss cabinet post allocations and potential ministers. Sheep wants to be very proactive and announce his entire cabinet line-up a year in advance so that NZ public will know the quality of Sheep’s ministers. Sheep says – “I have turned the polls around. It is just a matter of time before I will overtake John Key as the preferred Prime Minister”.

    • Troy

      Norman – Minister of Insane Political Theories
      Peters – Minister of Wigs
      Hone – Minister of Unemployment
      They’ll all be highly successful in these roles.

  • Typical Whale, RoyMorgan and ColmarBrunton show clear patterns, TV3 goes rogue, so Whale decides to ignore RM forever (NAH NAH NAH I CAN’T HEAR YOU) and paint the obvious bad news for Nact as indecipherable. Pathetic.

    • Clear pattern…http://www.roymorgan.com/roymorgan/library/c68431_8.jpg

      The only pattern is it is up and down like a whores drawers…there is no other pattern, there certainly hasn’t been anything political to cause such massive swings.

      • According to that chart, 3% of the voters went from National to the Greens since the election…. I’d say that’s unlikely.
        Back to normal 15% the Greens seem to get between elections that evaporates on election day.

  • Steve Taylor

    Assuming a 5% threshold = approx 120,000 votes (around 2000 votes per Electorate): The Conservative Party seem to be regularly registering around 40,000 – 50,000 votes. That leaves around 70,000 votes to secure. Sounds like a lot – but is it? I’m not sure about the likelihood of the MMP threshold being dropped to 4% by the next Election, but if it is – then the figure goes to around 40,000 extra votes needed by the Conservatives to cross the 4% threshold. Be interesting to see what would happen in one of those “minor party” televised debates, if the Conservatives were permitted to participate.

    • only 2million vote so 5% is approx. 100,000.

  • Troy

    Winstoned has now firmly placed his stake in the ground – a red/green ground, by stating he won’t join National in a coalition unless they buy back the power. This is the best news ever because instead of the Wigged Winny holding the country to ransom at election in his usual fashion, voters can decide what they want… a red/green/black coalition? C’mon, not even the average Kiwi is that stupid (well maybe the Greens as they are fucked up in every sense of the word).

  • Steve Taylor

    National looking at talking with the Conservatives? http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10879116

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