Fairfax-Ipsos poll makes it 3 bad polls for Labour

The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll has been released and Grant Robertson will be licking his chops.

Labour has taken a big hit in the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, raising fresh questions about whether David Shearer can lead them to victory.

Halfway through its second term, Prime Minister John Key’s National is riding high on 49.1 per cent support, up 4.5 percentage points since February, and would be able to govern alone.

Over the same period Labour had shed 4.4 per cent to 31.9 per cent, with respondents pointing to Mr Shearer as weak and negative, Ipsos pollster Duncan Stuart said.

It marks a sharp reversal from our February poll when the Left and Right were neck and neck.

The survey, taken in the days after the May 16 Budget, suggests an improving economic mood has lifted National’s poll ratings. 

Tracy Watkins is scathing, the caption under the photo says it all, “Mr Shearer may be morphing from Mr Invisible to something worse in voters’ eyes, Mr Negative.”

How long before Labour asks whether David Shearer is the solution or the problem? If the results of today’s Fairfax Media-Ipsos poll are a precursor to the next election, the news is all bad for Labour – and not just because the poll has it shedding support, though that is bad enough.

But because it reverses a trend that had Labour slowly clawing into contention.

What changed? To lean on a cliche, the economy, stupid.

The poll shows a sudden surge in people who think the country is on the right track – a combination of the wealth effect of a rise in house prices, particularly in Auckland, a drop in the number of jobless, better growth figures and a feeling that there is light at the end of the tunnel for the economy.

There are plenty of niggles with the Government but they are just that – niggles.

None has taken on the tsunami-like proportions of the nanny state backlash that swept Labour out of office.


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  • spollyike

    Of course Shearer is the problem (but don’t tell Labour)…

    He isn’t nearly aggressive enough to combat the psychotic personalities of Norman, but especially Turei (that bitch is crazy)!!

    He also has his eyes stubbornly set to the front aimed at Key when the REAL enemy (the Greens) are silently but surely tightening the Garrote behind him…

  • JeffDaRef

    A poll is a poll, though this is a good one.

    But for a journo who in the past was pretty friendly to Labour, the words have an air of defeat about them as if she has come to the realisation Labour wont win the next election…ahhh its a beauty to behold!

    Theres no reason for Robertson to take the leadership..by leaping to the left Labour are rooted..better for Robertson to watch Shearer walk the plank and be there to pick up the pieces after 2014.

    • Agent BallSack

      Will there be any support left for Labour after 2014? Just like people abandon the Black Caps (Hope the guy who thought up that name doesnt still work for NZ Cricket) in droves due to their woeful ability and crap publicly aired politics, people will abandon a weak party and vote for the next best thing.

      • JeffDaRef

        And the next best thing is what? Greens are down too!
        The rot has set in, theres nothing for Robertson to gain by stepping in now. It will be easier to rebuild after an election disaster when you can start anew than it will be to stop the slide now – they have already pinned their colours to some shithouse policy.

        • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

          Greens holding steady at 12%-12.5% in both TV3 and Fairfox polls. Only TV1 showed them below 10%

          • Mediaan

            They are bludgers by nature.

            They now do … nothing. No electorates, no real jobs.

            And yet they still ask for more for themselves. We want this extra. We need this.

            The public are not stupid.

            New Zealand admires the bloke who quietly takes his turn doing the work, and never fails to pay for the round when it is his turn.

  • AnonWgtn

    In the Ides of August believe that the shit will hit the fan and nice guy Shearer will resign the leadership and Robertson will take over with Annette King as deputy.
    Won’t actually make any difference as he is loathed in the eyes of many Labour supporters.
    The question being asked is, are the New Zealand voters ready for a homosexual dominated Government. Many would say yes.

    • spollyike

      “are the New Zealand voters ready for a homosexual dominated Government”

      No, but the fruit-loops voters probably are.

    • BJ

      “are the New Zealand voters ready for a homosexual dominated Government”


      Government needs to be dominated by individuals that represent the core conservative values of society whereby men and women make decisions together when they’ve got a joint commitment to cooperation with the opposite gender, otherwise we might as well be governed by the Muslims.

      • LabTested

        A bit like Helen saying she knew what it was like to be a parent cos she had nephews & neices

    • thor42

      Pffft…. Annette King. Bloody hell.

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        She has ambitions of becoming the PM of this country one day.

        • Mediaan

          Her immediate ambition seems to be getting the next Health portfolio. She keeps making Health speeches.

          Which would of course be a fascinating conflict of interest, with her husband so tied up in government health contracts past and present.

          If the nightmare happened and that lot of incompetents did become government, at least Cameron Slater would have endless stories for Truth readers on Labour government derring-do.

          And we would have the Labour vaudeville acts of the attempted slipping away from reporters, like Chris Carter, and the tv falling asleep drunk on the job, like Shane Jones, and the avoiding of Court Document Servers, like Mallard and Little (scuttle and duck) …

    • Mediaan

      Annette King is so funny when she tries to defend “the poor”.

      There she is, her own family income must be well over half a million a year, and she is rattling on about Taxing The Rich.

  • get a grip

    Wouldnt get too excited about the latest polls……ie this one and TV1
    The undecideds are up between 12-17%…
    means that numbers trumpeted are rather meaningless!!!

  • blokeintakapuna

    A cornered, trapped animal is a dangerous animal. Even if it is just a rat. They can have a nasty, septic bite.
    If we thought L&G’s power policy was bad and dangerous for the economy just wait and watch. L&G have stooped to new low’s when they deliberately vandalised the MRP IPO inflicting hundreds of millions in lost wealth for NZ Inc – and it didn’t really work for them, so next cab off the rank has to be even bigger… even nastier.
    Remember, if they stoop that low and it didn’t work for them, what is next?
    As the election draws nearer, Labour will have all manner of internal factions doing the dirty on each other, vying to get their preferred “leader” into the hot seat – whilst having to fight a rear-guard action against the Greens, whilst also trying to appear credible to the electorate that they can work hand in hand with the Greens and Mana to lead NZ Inc.
    If the internal leadership battles within Labour & the Maori Party continue, combined with the prospect of a 4-headed Taniwha government “leading NZ” – all Key/National will need to do is maintain a “steady as she goes” course and the rest of us can pull up a deckchair and popcorn and watch the left become a slow-motion train wreck incrementally heading for another massive reality check!

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      Extend WFF for the unemployed….will be a vote winner

      • Mediaan

        Yeah, and to Labrador dogs as well.

  • peterwn

    Interesting that Tracy Watkins seems to have waka-hopped after being Labour’s ‘repeater’ for so long. She now concedes that all the issues about National she and her mates have been gleefully reporting on are now little ‘niggles’ which have had little influence on public thinking.

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      She is a waste of space.

    • Mediaan

      She is writing more responsibly than many in Fairfax.

  • johnbronkhorst

    Pretty much EVERYTHING National have done has worked exactly as they said it would. Policies for the future are measured, responsible and plausible.
    Labour can’t even front with a policy that could pass even the most basic, bullshit back of a napkin scrutiny.

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      Kiwibuild and Kiwipower are sensible policies according to uncle Ganesh Nana…..

  • Gazzaw

    More bad news for labour this morning with a substantial rise in dairy prices to $7 and anticipated to hold this price for at least another year. Fantastic news for dairy farmers that will largely negate the effects of the drought and our so-called high exchange rate. No doubt though that Norman is currently preparing a suitably negative media release for Shearer’s next press conference.

    A vote for Shearer is a vote for Norman!

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      Sheep will say you are going to pay $25 for a block of cheese in the super market and Kiwis will believe him and vote for Labour.

  • Col

    Bye bye David Shearer don’t cry, should have told us about your bank account before you got kicked in the eye, now you will needed it, we say goodbye, David Shearer we say goodbye.

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      He will unleash the secret bank account money to win the 2014 election

  • steve and monique

    You mix green with red,and end up with brown. Guess shit coloured sum’s up the Labour parties fortune’s since Russ,and Turei got in bed with them.

  • rockape

    So just think about this for a moment. After the election Labour will see the error it made siding with the Greens,. I dont think anyone would dispute that. So they will have to distance themselves from the Greens. To do so they will vie for the center and end up having to support Nationals centerist policies and cease to be an opposition. So then what relevance would they have, the choice would be National or the other National. Watch for the break up of lABOUR some moving to National,not many or at least supporting National and the rest, the left making a formal alliance with the Greens, Then, what do you know, we ARE BACK TO TWO PARTY POLITICS.Watch this space.

    • thor42


  • thor42

    300 more call-center jobs coming to Wellington too (thanks to John Morrison whom I’ll be voting for in the local-body elections this year).

    • Cadwallader

      Put him back in the Black Caps while you’re at it. The batting order like the WCC needs some spine.

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      I think Celia Wade-Brown secured these call centre-jobs by promising Green technology…..(Coconuts connected by thread made of jute).

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    Folks – I believe the latest Roy Morgan poll is going to show a complete opposite trend to all these polls. That is when Sheep will start to fly high.

  • Bryan

    is that like the poll they had in Christchurch where they rang 121 people and came out with 40% now back labour roy morgan has always been an opposite poll which makes one ask “how do they ask the question? to get the result they want ? and so seek to influence this country