Two polls, no joy for Shearer, tick tock

One News and Tv3 released their latest polls, and despite Patrick Gower’s enthusiasm for Labour they both show the same thing…National can pretty much govern alone and David Shearer’s Labour is losing support in large chunks to National as they lurch further to the left and get nice and cosy with the Greens

This can be seen clearly in the figures in the One News Colmar Brunton poll. Although the Greens drop, that support went to Labour, even more left Labour as a result of the green taint.

The voters clearly don’t like the Green/Labour mix and the only big policy announcement in this poll cycle was their power black out plan…the voters obviously don’t like it.

One News results:

Onenews

National could govern alone and would not need a coalition deal, the poll results show.

National has jumped six points and is sitting pretty on 49 percent.

Labour has dropped three points, now at 33 percent.

The Greens have lost a big chunk of support, now in single digits on nine percent, while New Zealand First picked up a point to be on four percent.

Colin Craig’s Conservative Party on two percent, the Maori Party and United Future, both at one percent, are all holding steady, but not getting much traction.

3News Poll results:

3news

National remains on top, with 47.3 percent – down 2.3 percent. Labour goes up to 33.1 percent; that’s up 2.9 percent. The Greens are up a tad, at 12 percent. And New Zealand First drop to 2.2 percent, beneath the 5 percent threshold required for leader Winston Peters to get back.

As for the minor parties, there is not a lot happening there. ACT is on 0.2 percent, meaning just two people in 1000 would vote for them.

In the Parliament, National would have 59 seats. It would need its support partners to win electorate seats to get a majority.

Grant Robertson must be getting close to tipping out David Shearer. It really only needs some courage from him and his team. The clock is certainly ticking on Shearer’s leadership. Those polls must be starting to worry Labour, they have got nowhere, they are considered hopeless by the voters who are drifting back to the safety of National and John Key.

 


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  • They’re rogue polls, all of them.
    Labour supporters don’t have landlines, so aren’t canvassed.
    The only poll that counts is on election day.
    The margin of error is hiding the shift to Labour.
    It isn’t what I’m hearing as I talk to people. Etc, etc, etc.

    Also: David Shearer is the best Leader of the Opposition New Zealand has had for a while, and I hope that he keeps the role for many years to come.

    • johnbronkhorst

      Idiot: The only poll showing a sharp fall by National was the last one. Otherwise National have been polling 47-49% since the election. Making it the ROGUE poll!

      • James

        I’m pretty sure that Poe’s law is in play here; rather than its corollary.

        • johnbronkhorst

          Ok I’ll accept that!

    • rockape

      Idiot but I am sure its only your alter ego that s an idiot. But yes those are theold excuses Labour will trot out. Its seems to be forgotten that these polls were once a valuable tool to be used by party managers. Now they are just sacrificed on the alter of ideology and excuses made. We must be right-thepolls must therefore be wrong or the voters must be wrong! Pathetic.

  • They are rogue polls.
    Labour supporters don’t have landlines, so aren’t canvassed.
    The only poll that counts is on election day.
    The margin of error is hiding the shift to Labour.
    It isn’t what I’m hearing as I talk to people.
    Etc, etc, etc.

    Also: David Shearer is the best Leader of the Opposition New Zealand has had for a while, and I hope that he keeps the role for many years to come.

    • dumbshit

      so do all national supporters

  • williamabong

    Interesting to see the Gweens take a hit, for a while it has been the trendy thing to do to tick Luddite now it looks like reality may bite, they are starting to find their power base in Remmers thinning out.
    The nutty Gweens are starting to look less appealing by the day with idiot threats to change laws to recover sold down state assets, something Labour have now picked up on, it must rate as a sad day for Labour when their policies revolve around following the Luddite s.
    Another month or so and JK should call a snap election, this should sit Labour back on it’s arse, and send the Gweens back to where they came from, the dole.

    • rockape

      Nope the public dont like snap elections! If you want that then do you believe things wont get better under National. This was the first budget with a bit of money to spend and it was spent wisely. Next time it will be even better. Just no cups of tea JK FFS.

      • johnbronkhorst

        To think about a 4th term, I would have a “cup of tea”, behind the scenes!

        • rockape

          Yes John, Maybe one with the conservatives to. I dont like them but their slow rise is another example of the move away from the Green/Labour unholy alliance.

  • Gazzaw

    Labour has to rid itself of its association with the toxic greens before it’s too late. Maybe it is too late for 2014 but somehow or other labour has to get back to its working class roots if it is to have any hope of political survival. Democracy needs a good, strong and intelligent Opposition and labour is not providing that largely due to them being led by the nose by the communist greens.

    Truly a vote for Shearer is a vote for Norman and the public is starting to recognise that.

    • Whafe

      Well the fact that Labour have come out and said that the changes National are making to the RMA and turning it into an aconomic stimulus package etc etc etc, and that Labour would change that completely back to how it was, sending the country broke. They are far from realising they need to pull away from the Greens

    • unsol

      Why do you care? Isn’t it to our & this country’s advantage that they self-combust? Why on earth would you want Labour to reclaim its former voting base – do you want another 9 years under their ignorant & irresponsible stewardship?

      • Gazzaw

        Where the fuck are you coming from unsol? You should know my politics by now. But yes I do believe that democracy needs sound Opposition. Note the word ‘sound’.

        • Bunswalla

          Is “making a lot of noise” the same as sound?

          Nah, didn’t think so either!

          • Gazzaw

            In this context ‘sound’ means solid, constructive and reliable – qualities which labour in its present form does not have and as long as they are in cahoots with the green commies never will have.

          • unsol

            I agree to a point. The problem is though, if the left wing do manage to ever become solid, constructive & reliable then it is possible they could get back in – which would be to the detriment of our country.

            So perhaps the kind of democracy I prefer is an open dictatorship – head by Collins – whereby we can all hold the govt to account, but only those with right wing ideology have the ability to be in government!

          • Dave

            Good point Gazzaw, the only thing Mumbles and his fellow troughers can do is Oppose. No matter what Key and National say, Labour oppose, no sound policy, or argument to oppose or even viable argument or alternatives. Currently, there is no real opposition.

  • A high proportion of Green support on election day comes from first time voters who tend to be idealistic and not really aware of economic issues. As time goes on they become more realistic, but there are always new voters at the university harvest grounds to be ‘conned’ for a vote next cycle. Unfortunately the Greens will stay with their % at around 8-10% and will likely increase as the numbers of younger voters increase with the dying off of the baby boomers, which is fortunately still a little while off.

    • TomTom

      I actually agree with this. My best friend and I were discussing who’d I vote for in my first election (he’s a year younger so wasn’t eligible to vote at the time) and we spent a lot time discussing the Greens environmental policies before he dug up their economics policies. The Greens “are all about” the environment, but they’re not in the positive management sense.

      • johnbronkhorst

        If you look at their environment policies. They don’t stack up much either.
        Take their policy to have % of fuel mandated to be biofuel to improve the planets environment. Turned out, NZ can only produce at present about 10% of the requirement, the rest would have to be imported from Indonesia (palm oil plantations) therefore cutting down rain forests!!! So it would seem that the greens environmental policies are a more “out of sight out of mind” environmental view!!

    • rockape

      Yes I would expect a jump in the Green vote. On the other side I think most of us would agree that economically National is on the right track and if they stay with that and there are no more financial road bumps things will look good come election time. Nationals campaigne can be based on we got it right, Labour wouldnt have in crude terms. If National have a bit of cash around to spend in 18 months time, they can go for a bit more on health and education and save the tax cuts for their first budget after the election.

      • johnbronkhorst

        The economy should , in voters minds be 85% of their decision. Because without it you can have nothing else!

        • rockape

          I think it is the prime mover of votes amongst those who understand it. Sadly that wouldnt explain how a few cheap bribes at the expense of the economy got Labour a second and third term.I think too many voters think”Whats in it for me?” at the expense of whats good for NZ and that only the economy being healthy can achieve that.

  • kohibruce

    I suspect the Nat’s economic management is also a major cause – many indicators going in the right direction. The fruit loops are becoming increasingly irrelevant.

  • Whafe

    Wow, hearing Meka Whaitiri speak with Mike Hosking this morning was enlightening, NOT

    Meka Whaitiri is worried all her people are moving to Australia to find work, just shows how up to date Meka is with economics etc etc….

    • Gazzaw

      Whaitiri is just more of the same. Where are the bright young graduates who could lead Maori politics out of self-interest and nepotism?

      • Whafe

        Exactly, the opportunity was not taken to as you say, bring in a bright future thinking candidate….

      • Dave

        Ah, Gazzaw, unfortunately she is one of the brightest ……… Exactly!

  • GregM

    The important thing now is to keep the momentum going. People are starting to realise Labour has lurched to the hard left, and that a commie whinger is calling the shots. National need to keep hammering this message at every opportunity.

    I don’t think a leader change for labour would help, it’s to close to the election for a new leader to get any traction, and it could be seen as the party moving even further away from their “working class man” traditional voter base.
    Nope, I think they’re fucked.

    • rockape

      Silent T shot his bolt I think. I dont think anyone with any sense (and there are one or two) in Labour, will put their hand up just to lose and election, not good for the career as Clark Goofey and even some National leaders have found out. Anyone with serious ambitions in Labour will keep a low profile till after the election. They then will have no problem ousting Shearer as he will no doubt resign.

  • sheppy

    Last night the 3 news site was saying this was good news for labour – which didn’t make sense to me, but then again I know how to add numbers together accurately

  • Did anyone see JK on One this morning? He was saying that he reckons people are wising up to the negativity of the opposition just opposing everything and not coming up with viable alternatives. Interviewer comes back at him saying “No, Labour have announced good policy around feeding hungry kids and Housing. The incredulous look that JK gave him was priceless.

    • LabTested

      Ditto. I couldn’t believe the interviewer openly promoting Labour policy

      • AnonWgtn

        Nothing new.

        Taurima will return to TVNZ unscathed as he has now “come out” as politically biased.

        They all are in the media so he will be welcomed with a Powhiri.

  • Drhill

    So David Shearer came to Palmerston North last week to tell a group of Labour supports it was “Their election to loose”. Will Shearer put his job on the line if he thinks so? I would suspect Key would quite politics if he looses the next election, will the opposition do the same?

    • According to this poll, not many people care any more.

      • rockape

        That can be good, those who Dont Care mostly vote for the incumbant come election day.

  • unsol

    John Key observed that Norman & Shearer just sound shrill as they are opposed to anything & everything where the govt is concerned; the poll reflects that NZers don’t like whinging whining weaners. I hope that Labour & the Greens, headed by the two weaners, continue to be BFFs as that will ensure they remain out of govt & their hands kept away from our money.

    Cameron & Lusk may say they have no regard for the current Nat elite & claim to have the big picture in mind, but Lusk did say Collins is not ready to attack/take up her position from the Opposition so I suggest they quit bagging the govt & focus on nailing these left-wing wankers.

    Some may view Hekia & others as a blight on this country’s political landscape, but make no mistake – she is a saint compared to the damage that Labour & the Greens will do if they get in. And the vote is too close to be taking the Nat’s majority for granted; undermining the current govt at this late stage in the election cycle,is counterproductive if you truly are someone who leans to the right.

    • rockape

      I agree totally re doing everything possible to finish Labour and the Greens. I suspect they will continue to damage themselves and its too late for a divorce now. However I am not sure a reorganization within National would be bad at this time. The time for major change will be post election with National governing alone. I think many at the top will go, sadly including the PM who I think has probably had enough.

      • Troy

        Long may the reds and greens stand steady as bedfellows to the point even when the greens fade away into the cesspool of political oblivion and the reds… well, who really cares.

      • unsol

        I agree that the Nats need a massive overhaul – most are uninspiring, stale & spineless.

        But we need to balance the push for this against the perception of a targeted attack whereby the left are seen as a viable alternative – which of course is a complete misnomer to anyone who has even a remote level of intelligence.

        At the moment I feel that this blog is trying to throw the baby out with the bath water…and I am not sure why. Long term goals may preclude the current Nat line up, but what should we have in the meantime? Leftwing? No way. We were tinkering on the brink of bankruptcy when they left last time, despite many years of a booming economy.

        If they get back in within the next 10 years we will be worse off than Greece.

        • rockape

          Good points unsol. Change has to happen sometime and I think change to the right not left. Being a benevolent capitalist is viable. I would like to see us going into the next election with the best possible team, I am not sure we are doing that. Whilste not supporting Cam in his slash and burn policy,I do think there are some sitting drawing Cabinet salaries who quite frankly are not up to it.

  • AnonWgtn

    Shearer should be aware of the Ides of August. Caesar didn’t listen.
    Robertson and his “cohorts” will surely roll him, with Annette King as Deputy.

  • tarkwin

    I fear it is too late for Labour. They don’t seem to realise they are being slowly eaten by The Greens and their own far left. People want to hear alternative policies, not continual whining. Labour politicians of yesteryear would be doing cartwheels in their graves if they could see the Labour of today.

    • rockape

      Yes but to suggest being eaten suggests a benefit to the Greens, i prefere eroded!

      • tarkwin

        See what you mean, probably a bit flowery for a Monday.

  • steve and monique

    Russel Norman,and the Greens will be the downfall of Labour..

    • Whafe

      I think, have been the downfall…..
      The discussion at both the Pinko’s parties will be pretty serious today one would imagine…

      • dumbshit

        do you think they will be clever enough to understand the result or will it be john keys fault again

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    Nobody is going to roll Sheep. Sheep will lead Labour to victory. The TV3 poll is just the start folks. Wait for the Roy Morgan poll next week. You will know what I am talking about.

  • Patrick

    Extraordinary that we are in a situation under MMP where a 3rd term government could be in a position to govern alone, let alone a National government in such a left leaning country. Just goes to show the voters believe Key is going ok & they have seen the horrors the Labour/Green faction would unleash on NZ.

    • rockape

      Yes when you look at how the Labour vote declined,despite their bribes, over their 9 years it is remarkable.

  • Adolf Fiinkensein

    Why do so many commentators ignore the Maori Party?

    Hey guys and gals, they ARE already a coalition partner for National, if one is needed.

    • Travis Poulson

      No thanks, need to get rid of the single issue racist party.

      • Adolf Fiinkensein

        Yes, you’re right. Of course that’s the Mana party you are talking about.

        • Travis Poulson

          Sorry, I forgot there were 2 single issue racist parties, but no I wasn’t talking about them.

          • Adolf Fiinkensein

            And what, pray tell, do you consider to be the Maori Party’s ‘single issue’?

          • Travis Poulson

            You can’t be serious.

          • Adolf Fiinkensein

            Oh but I am. So you’re all piss and wind then are you?

    • rockape

      Sadly I think the Maori party will suffer at the hands of mana and Labour next time round, the will be lucky to bring two seats to the table.

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