Deader than Ever

Another poll, another nail in the coffin of Julia Gillard and the ALP.

TONY Abbott has opened his biggest lead ever over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister as Labor’s primary vote fell below 30 per cent for the first time in a year. 

With parliament entering its final sitting week before the election, the Opposition Leader now leads the Prime Minister by 12 percentage points after trailing by 30 points as the preferred prime minister when Ms Gillard became leader in June 2010.

Ms Gillard’s support as preferred prime minister dropped from 35 to 33 in the latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian on the weekend.

Labor’s primary vote dropped below 30 per cent – by just one point to 29 per cent – for the first time since July last year when the carbon tax was implemented.

On top of that it is suggested that Labor’s internal polling is even more dire:

AN internal ALP report containing polling for 40 seats across Australia, and circulated among selected members of Julia Gillard’s leadership group, shows Labor would be lucky to retain 30 to 35 seats after the election.

But the report has not been shared with most Labor MPs.

The Daily Telegraph has obtained data from the party’s UMR research report compiled for the ALP national secretariat in the past two weeks…

It warns that Labor, with an overall primary vote of 32 per cent, would likely only retain between 30 and 35 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives – a loss of more than half its existing MPs.The report, showing polling results of 40 seats across the nation, also reveals that the swings were twice as bad in seats held by Labor than those it didn’t hold – confirming the electorate was now intent on punishing Labor.

“This reduces us to a rump,” the ALP source said. “I’m not sure people realise this is going to be a defeat of the likes the Labor Party has never seen.”


THANK YOU for being a subscriber. Because of you Whaleoil is going from strength to strength. It is a little known fact that Whaleoil subscribers are better in bed, good looking and highly intelligent. Sometimes all at once! Please Click Here Now to subscribe to an ad-free Whaleoil.

  • johnbronkhorst

    GOOD, can’t happen soon enough to any labour party, no matter where in the world they are!!!

  • Whafe

    Just goes to show what a sham a pure socialist agenda is…….. She thinks saving 2000 jobs for a financially unviable Holden is going to keep her in power = Dream on…
    Agree JBK, any political party like Labour globally that rewards people for not standng on there own two feet, deserve to go down in a screaming heap…
    Mumbles Shearer will not even have an opinion now re Julia G…. Again, the leadership skills of a goat

  • island time

    And amazingly Gillard does not accept that she is part of the problem and will never be part of a solution – but that’s Labour in a nutshell I guess.

    • CheesyEarWax

      Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
      Albert Einstein

      • Bunswalla

        I think you’ll find that was Alfred E. Neuman

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    This poll shows the power of Sheep in NZ. He has been steadily holding the Labour vote here at 33% and with Greens, NZ First and Mana added, right on track for power in 2014.

    • Pita

      Sounds like a solid, sensible and united coalition to me…

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        Excellent. Welcome to to Sheep’s heaven Pita (Sharples)

  • Daniel Church

    They still haven’t analysed the real issue though. It’s a foregone conclusion that the Coalition will win the House, but they also need a majority in the Senate. It is still possible that Labor/Greens between them could cobble together a majority in the Senate; which would result in a deadlock.

    • buzzler

      All Tony Abbott has to do then is call a double dissolution. This will mean a new election for the House and Senate. With the momentum in his favour, Abbott will win both again. Hopefully the Greens will be destroyed in the process.

      • Daniel Church

        Yes, that’s right. And a double dissolution is a serious possibility that the commentators haven’t properly considered yet.

  • Jacob Lister

    Interesting those numbers are in the ballpark of the respective kiwi parties at the moment