Labour most to lose

Claire Trevett has an article about the looming by-election in Ikaroa-Rawhiti. It is a reasonable article spoiled by inept graphics work.

See if you can work out what they are on about where they get the name of Labour candidate wrong, and the sequence cocked up.

heraldbomb

There are two good reasons elections are usually held in the warmer months. Voters are more likely to wander to the polling booth and campaigning is a more pleasant experience for the candidates.

Things are not so easy for the Ikaroa-Rawhiti byelection candidates, although Labour’s campaign team took advantage of the stormy weather on Friday and Saturday by door knocking, knowing voters were likely to be at home.

It appears inevitable Labour’s candidate, Meka Whaitiri, will win the seat. The bigger question is how the Mana and Maori parties will go against each other.

Turnout is likely to be very low…like the Mana by-election the actual result will not be reflective on long term prospects in the seat.

Much has been made of the byelection coinciding with the Maori Party’s own existential crisis in the form of Tariana Turia’s looming leadership handover and Te Ururoa Flavell’s challenge of Pita Sharples.

None have denied that the uncertainty has handicapped its candidate Na Raihania. Many see the byelection as an indicator of who is winning the power struggle between the Maori Party and Mana Party, although the candidates are like chalk and cheese.

Mana’s Te Hamua Nikora has a showbiz background from hosting the Homai Te Pakipaki karaoke show on Maori TV and appeals to the younger voters.

Raihania is a steady figure who has spent his life working in the community and is more likely to appeal to older voters.

But some commentators have claimed that a resounding defeat in the byelection will effectively spell the end of the Maori Party as a whole.

Such conclusions have to be treated with caution, especially given the traditionally low turnout in byelections. The true test will be at the general election in 2014 and whether it will hold on to its three electorates rather than achieving a mission impossible in Ikaroa-Rawhiti.

Despite the expected result, Labour has a lot at stake in this byelection as well. It has to win well.

Claire is right…the only party that has anything at stake is Labour…they must win well, perhaps with a slight discount on account of Parekura Horomia’s personal popularity..but that is all. If it is a close run thing then opponents will claim Labour has lost mana.

Labour can’t be happy with the their pals in the Green party either.

 

 


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  • Mr_Blobby

    The Mana by-election turnout was so low because only extended family were allowed to vote.

    There is no place for race or religious based seats in a modern democracy.

    Say NO to race based seats.

    • Jack McDonald

      The Mana electoral seat is a general seat. Get your facts right.

  • Col

    Mana are putting on a KOHA party for all its voters They have $12000.00 so decided to have a BYO, so you going Bro?

  • metalnwood

    photographic dyslexia is not something to be made fun of, it has no real world advantage other than an excuse when your wife catches you with a photo of someone else.

  • Arran Hunt

    If you read the Q&A in the print copy, all four agree with saying a karakia at school each day (though some don’t see it as religious as if you aren’t aiming the prayer at anything), they are big on finding jobs but they also aren’t as they are all opposed to mining (with one seeming to have difficulties linking mining with jobs, as if mines mine themselves)

    • IWantToBeLikeMallardOneDay

      Honkies mine them, pay taxes and the labour mob give them to the wananga to train people to become social workers. We all know this is how mines create jobs… :-)

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    Tory Bros – Sheep has done a polling in the seat and very pleased with the result. As per projections, Labour is going to win with a higher margin and it appears that the total vote for Labour will be at least 10% more than Maori, Mana and the toxic Greens put together. People on the street are saying that Labour is the only party that can save them from poverty and get them jobs. Go Labour! Sheep rocks!

    • Betty Swallocks

      I’m surprised nobody has picked up your typo in the last line. Shouldn’t it read “… the only party that can save them from poverty and GETTING jobs”?

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        Betty – Labour is all about creation of jobs for the poor. They have a great track record and policies for job growth. So I suggest, you throw away your day job. get a volunteer T-shirt and come and work for us in Ikaroa-Rawhiti. Let us go door knocking. As a reward, I could get you to stand in Christchurch East seat…..Sheep is looking for candidates…

  • peterwn

    John Key got the name of the Maori Party candidate wrong – but hey! Na Raihania got some media exposure from this.

  • tarkwin

    I can see how they they got the photo order wrong. Most female members of the Green Party look like blokes.

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