Will Key call a snap election?


via tangatawhenua.com

via tangatawhenua.com

NBR calls it like it sees it

There is another option available to Mr Key if Mr Dunne throws in the towel, because right now he would have his best chance of winning a snap election and governing on his own.

Simply put, while Mr Key is still able to raise $250,000 from a single dinner and auction, Labour has no money.  So broke has it become, it would need to use much of its broadcasting allocation money on production whereas National could put every dollar into purchasing advertising slots.

Labour has little if no money for pamphlet drops let alone direct mail.

In terms of the content of its election messaging, Labour is currently uncompetitive in funding market research.

Its leader, David Shearer, would be annihilated not just by Mr Key in the formal election debates but by the press pack every day.

Labour would probably need to decline to put their man up against Mr Key.  After all, election debates are not compulsory in New Zealand and only happen because both sides perceive some advantage.

A way would also need to be found to shield from Mr Shearer from unscripted media questioning.

Were this not bad enough, Labour’s political positioning compared with National is currently awful.

My Labour sources confirm just how broken-arsed they are. There was some détente with business until they launched their power policy, after that donor discussions ceased.
They are so broke that internal polling is dropping away but indications from sources are that the latest internal polling shows Labours result has a two at the front of it.
Labour are privately praying that Dunne holds on as an mp so they don’t have to fight a full scale election

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  • johnbronkhorst

    “Labour has little if no money for pamphlet drops let alone direct mail.”
    At the previous 2 elections, at least, the UNIONS “pamphlet dropped” every lunch room in the country.
    The unions will use MEMBERS money!!

  • Garner had the brothers Espiner on with him just after 5pm last night, and one of them reckons it’s the perfect time to call and election because Shearer still can’t talk and Winston has no money.

    And for an added bonus, Norman has just shown his true colours, and you can be sure that there will be a large chunk of Green voters really peeved with him. It would also negate any impact of a non-binding asset sales referendum.

    Do it John; do it!

    • johnbronkhorst

      It would appear that the stars are aligning.
      1. Labour still no relevant workable policies.
      2. Winnie broke.
      3. Greens announcing carbon tax (that killed Gillard in Australia).
      4. Nationals results all positive, unemployment down and dropping, health dept. in spectacular condition, crime down, road toll down, economy growing ,Christchurch rebuild progressing etc etc …all the things that will actually impact on peoples lives are heading in a positive direction and the govt. has been PROVED correct on every issue so far!

      • rockape

        National are in the middle of a not very popular asset sale right now. When we reap the benefits I think people will see it was a good desision. But thats not now. Next year, the benefits will roll in and so will National. Hopefully like a steam roller over Labour and the Greens.

        • LesleyNZ

          You must say “partial” asset sale. Media and opposing opposition call it asset sale.

          • Bunswalla

            You must not use tautologies. Opposing opposition are on our side, aren’t they? :-P

          • LesleyNZ

            Ok. Opposing/opposition.

          • rockape

            So if I sell veggies, and only sell half my veggies that means I am not selling veggies I am selling partial veggies, Please disuss

          • motorizer

            vegies can be eaten….. however you can freeze them. and they can actually be separated.

            power plants cannot be eaten and cannot be separated.

          • waynewhoever

            So if you sell veggies, and only sell half your veggies that means the other half could go rotten,you will have to throw them out,you could go broke! I say sell all your veggies now whilst you have the chance.

    • AnonWgtn

      Winston can still steal more money from somewhere, and claim he paid it back.

  • Col

    I already told you this, bet you the heads are talking at the moment with JK?
    Then again the other parties are running around like chooks with there heads chopped off, love it.
    Old saying (for Winston ) do unto those who screw you.

    • johnbronkhorst

      But the sticking point, given JK’s past action (giving record notice of the last election), don’t think he actually believes in snap elections.

      • Col

        Not having any inside info, I would stay put at this time.
        The other parties are just cutting each other up, they are just getting worse, in my opinion?

      • Bunswalla

        That was to make sure it was just after the Rugby World Cup, and he put a lot of faith in Ted and Richie to deliver.

        And didn’t they just?

  • Mr_V4

    Interesting idea, but I wonder how the media would slant it. They would step up their propaganda big time!

  • The electorate would have to be convinced that it wasn’t a cynical move and indeed a genuine crisis. If it thinks Key calls a snap election for strategic reasons, they will punish him.

    • PlanetOrphan

      Agreed, A pragmatic approach from JK is the most likely, i.e. If the punters ask or if the “house system” demands a snap election.
      Otherwise it’s business as usual.

  • Time For Accountability

    Let’s not do anything until we all seek advice from Clint.

  • steve and monique

    Things will only get worse for greens/labour if they have more time..Sometime’s it pays to keep your mouths shut,and let people think you are idiots,then opening them and confirming it.

  • All_on_Red

    Who could National put in to stand in Peter Dunnes seat?

  • Harvey Wilson

    Considering JK is just like Piggy, he should have a few wines with his caucus then call a snap election.

    • Col

      I remember that snap Election, those were the days when a party was party, not like today, all bull shit and no hard work.

    • Muldoon wasn’t drunk; he was just as diabetic as a newt!!

  • Bryan

    no wait the tax take is rising good he will balance the books next year and might even be able to give the families a tax cut that would really put the boot into labour and greens and with the aust elections looking like a disaster for labour and greens it would suggest that their policies are not only being rejected here but else where as well and people like following the current trends of popularity

  • Mr_Blobby

    What cost to stay in power.

    He will bend over and take it long and hard up the bum from the maori party.

    Basically anything to stay in power.

    • rockape

      Doesnt have to, the Maori party are going to get caned next election. They have the most to loose so wont force an early vote.

  • unitedtribes

    If he dose I hope he puts a bit more thought into it than Muldoon did.

    • It wasn’t all Muldoon’s fault. His friends Jack and Jim put him up to it.

      • unitedtribes

        and he was pissed that night

      • Mr_Blobby

        I think John helped as well.

        • Perhaps even Glen!

  • GregM

    No need to call it early. Dirty Dunne was voted in as an electorate MP, he can still give the government his vote for confidence and supply and everything ticks along as normal.

  • peterwn

    I have a better idea – John Key resigns being PM and invites the Gov to appoint David Shearer to be leader. 17 months should be quite long enough for Labour / Greens to hang themselves.

  • Steve (North Shore)

    I say do it. Labour are fighting at the trough, the Greens are totaly off the wall with ideas, the Maori Party and Mana we have had enough of, NZ First will still get the silly oldies.
    What a great chance to drop the lot of them on their arses. This is the best we will get from National. To have good Govt you need good Oposition – we have none, so better the devil you know rather than giving power to the crazy ones.
    Edit, just read the comment in the next post below by williamabong. I agree.

  • Changeiscoming

    Labour MP’s should man up and put their money where their mouths are and start doing what the Greens do and compulsory give a portion of their pay to the party funds.

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    “They are so broke that internal polling is dropping away but indications
    from sources are that the latest internal polling shows Labours result
    has a two at the front of it.” – he he he – fat chance.

    Here is a leak from the Roy Morgan poll due out next week:

    National Party 38% (down 3%), Maori Party 1% (down 1%), ACT NZ 0% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.0% (down 0.5%)

    Support for Labour is 38% (up 3%); Greens are 13% (up 1%), New Zealand First 5.5% (up 1.0%), Mana Party 0.5% (No change), Conservative Party of NZ 2.5% (No change) and Others 1.5% (No change).

    Game over bros!!!