Latest Roy Morgan poll is out


As I have blogged previously I usually don’t blog about the Roy  Morgan poll. Mainly because it is so erratic.

However since it is the only public poll until the end of August and the only poll taken during Labour’s man-ban debacle it is pertinent to discuss it.

As I have said previously we need to take these polls with a grain of salt, but I did mention that if labour went up then David Shearer might just survive, but on the flip side if they went down then it is yet another indicator of the failings of his leadership.

Unfortunately though the left wing have wedded themselves to Roy Morgan and clutch to its coat-tails and read the entrails each and every time it comes out. I wonder what they are reading in the omens this time.  

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a small rise in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 47% (up 0.5% since June 17-30, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for Labour is 31% (down 0.5%); Greens are 11.5% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (up 1%), Mana Party 1.5% (up 1%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).



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  • B

    I can’t understand what Roy Morgan are saying in that link about the margin of error. What’s the margin of error in that poll?

    • Cadwallader

      For Shearer it is “The Margin of Terror!”

    • Andrew

      The max margin of sampling error on a random sample of 1000 is around +/- 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. This is the margin or error for a percentage of around 50%. What Roy Morgan are pointing out in their table is that as the percentage gets higher or lower than 50%, the margin of sampling error decreases. So far example, the margin of error for the Green Party result is smallerthan it is for the National Party result.

  • Travis Poulson

    Labour above 30%, has to be a rogue poll.

    • IWantToBeLikeMallardOneDay

      Come on! At least 30% of the NZ population are clearly morons. Why do you think Friends, Home and Away, Shortland and Coronation Street are still on television?

      • Travis Poulson

        Friends is still on? I think it’s good that Coro is still on, if it was pulled National would get the blame and NZ First would surge in popularity.

      • Phil

        30%? What about the dullards who preferred the Greens?

        • IWantToBeLikeMallardOneDay

          They’re too busy as middle trash downloading indie music and electronica which someone else has told them is good even though there’s no discernible means of critically evaluating it. It accounts for how they think about politics quite succinctly.

      • Steve R

        Hay my mummy watches coro st . And she hates labour .
        Actually I havent seen the how for 25 years and saw it at her place last year . holly fuck piss all changed , how boring is that . hahaha

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      31% – holding steady. I am sure all the Tories are disappointed as they were expecting a “2” as the leading digit. It ain’t happening bro.

      • Travis Poulson

        The trend is downwards, that’s the main thing.

      • Dave

        Next Rouge Morgan Poll SCS, How bout a side bet with a nice bottle of vino on it. Anything under 30, i win, if over 30, you win!!

        • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

          This is a very simple bet, game on! As aunty Helen once said, “bring it on”. Sheep has already asked me to give that bottle to him. Here is one up for you – both One News and TV3 polls will show Labour over 30! There you go.

          • Dave

            Fair enough SCS. if its 30 + on the next Rogue Morgan Pole, and as you will give it to Sheep, I will substitute it for a bottle of drench with low residue levels, so he is still fit for the BBQ Robertson is throwing in his honour in 47 days. Hate the rest of Robertsons new front line to get sick from tainted mutton SCS.

        • Glenn Peoples

          “Anything under 30, i win, if over 30, you win!!” But what if it’s exactly 30?

          • Dave

            If its exactly 30, i buy SCS some Drench for Sheep, SCS can get me a bottle of “The High Note” Pinot from Misha’s Vineyard.

            I only hope SCS can claim the cost of the Pinot from Sheep’s office, small change from Sheep’s US bank account.

      • Col

        Where is that beer????
        Make that 2 now.

  • cows4me

    So the lunatic left are down 2% in total, shit there are going to have to be some really good bribes in 2014.

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      I already have the contract with them to come up with a list of rich prick taxation scheme and bludgers benefits….What about a Universal Student Allowance (USA) of $250 per week for every student. Not loan, but allowance…there goes National in the drain…..I am also thinking of Pacifika TV funded by your tax, like Maori TV……

      • mike

        No Asian TV??? Bloody racist… mind you you have to sidle up to Winnie so fair enough.


  • johnbronkhorst

    With winnie out…Nats + ACT = Govt.!!!!

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      All poo needs just a 0.5% nudge which will happen on election night. I think this poll is such a disappointment for John Key and National. Despite all the negative publicity for Sheep, he is holding ground at 31%. He is a winner bro.

      • GregM

        Pushing poo uphill again SCS :-)

        • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

          Watch out for some attacking politics from Sheep in the next two weeks…..

          • Col

            What, is he going to take his pants down?

      • johnbronkhorst

        Maori party would hold the balance of power!

        • Dave

          Now that is very very scary – I can see Hone joining the maori party and demanding he be PM.

  • Jimmie

    Good Labour is still just above 30%.

    This means there will be no urgency to get rid of Shearer and his leadership death can continue along its slow and tortured path.

  • thor42

    I predict that the Nats will stay pretty solid in the next couple of polls anyway.

    They may well get a slight lift from the welfare reforms (which are very popular, with 55-60% support or so).
    Looking ahead a few months – if those reforms result in a few thousand dropping off benefits, then things will look really good for the Nats in 2014.

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    pssst – nothing to worry about. Still on track for power in 2014. All we need is a 0.5% nudge for Winnie the Poo. Then we will be singing our way to the treasury benches….Shame on you Tories.

    • Col

      I still want 2 Beers.

  • Billoby

    Electorates reward competency. Always. Mostly.

    • IWantToBeLikeMallardOneDay

      Two words: Hutt South.

    • Hazards001

      And MMP rewards list position. Which has absolutely nothing to do with competency. Mostly!

  • The Government Confidence Rating is at its highest level since January last year. That’s very bad news for Labour and the Greens, because it suggests that there is very little appetite for a change of government, except amongst hardcore Lefties. Waitakere Man and his missus are very happy with what John, Bill, Steven and co are doing.

    • Bob Murphy

      Mallard keeps winning though.

      • Bob Murphy

        Sorry that was meant for Billoby.

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    None of the “2” before Labour numbers materialised. Labour is still strong at 31%. Utter disappointing poll for John Key. Sheep just texted me saying he is very pleased with this poll. Cry me a river Tories.

  • Ratchette

    NZ Labour needs a Kevin Rudd clone. I suggest Red Len Brown. That would solve a couple of issues.

    • Hazards001

      lmao @ Red Len Brown. Sounds like the cheapest piss you could find in a Mangere bottle shop…oh….wait….right..

    • Col

      You are a lying, you don’t have a phone.

  • unitedtribes

    The lower Labour/Green go the higher MRP shares go

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      Admit MRP float was a dud….