It’s the economy stupid…

Labour and their fellow travellers the Green Taliban would ahve you believe that National don;t know what they are doing with the economy.

But a string of new statistics prove otherwise and show that we have a world leading manufacturing sector expansion underway:

Manufacturing PMI

The BNZ-BusinessNZ seasonally adjusted PMI for July stood at 59.5, which  was 4.3 points higher than June and a return to strong levels of expansion seen in May. Compared with previous July results, the 2013 value was the highest since the survey began in 2002, and the third highest monthly result on record. Overall, the first seven months of 2013 has averaged a healthy 56.3. 

The biggest rise in retail sales since 2006:

Strong sales in the core retailing industries, led by the food and beverage service industry, lifted retail spending in the June 2013 quarter, Statistics New Zealand said today.

After adjusting for seasonal effects the volume for the core retailing industries (which exclude the two vehicle-related industries) rose 2.3 percent compared with the March 2013 quarter. This rise is the largest increase in the series since the December 2006 quarter.

“A record increase in the food and beverage services industry topped off the widespread rise of consumer spending, with increased sales in 12 of the 15 industries for the June quarter,” industry and labour statistics manager Blair Cardno said.

The total volume of retail sales rose 1.7 percent, with the largest movements in:

  • fuel retailing, down 5.0 percent
  • food and beverage services, up 4.5 percent
  • motor vehicle and parts retailing, up 3.0 percent
  • department stores, up 5.4 percent.

More jobs on offer:

  • Job advertising finally showed a decent lift in July with the sum of newspaper and internet ads rising 3.5 percent (seasonally adjusted). The index is 4.5 percent higher than a year ago.
  • The growth reflected a 2.3 percent monthly increase in internet ads, further bolstered by an 11 percent lift in (much smaller) newspaper advertising. The level of internet ads is 5.9 percent higher than a year ago.

Soaring consumer confidence:

  • Consumers remain in a buoyant mood.
  • The exception was a knock to sentiment in Wellington, following last month’s strong earthquake.
  • Perceptions of financial well-being are positive relative to a year ago (though still low) and it’s still perceived as a good time to buy a major appliance. Both are positive signals for spending momentum.
  • Our Confidence Composite growth indicator, which combines consumer and business confidence, is signalling an economy in acceleration mode with the potential for close to 4 percent growth.

Happy voters don’t vote for change, especially happy voters in jobs, in a growing and vibrant economy.

They especially don’t change when the opposition looks like the Green led Labour/Mana/NZ First hydra.


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  • conwaycaptain

    There is a dearth of business experience in the opposition parties. Most of their members are the school, uni, Non job in an NGO or political party, parliament.
    In National they all have experience outside Parliament and some are self made. The have the experience.

    • Mediaan

      Yes. They also have no ability to make money. They simply don’t understand how it is done.

      They only understand how to steal money, by getting into government and then strong-arming it out of others.

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    I understand Sheep and Hippie will be attacking the Government on the Huntly job losses today….

    • johnbronkhorst

      Spoke people for the EPMU?

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        Sheep will also go on the attack regarding the excessive legal bill for Skycity deal negotiations. Trouble all around for John Key today.

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        Sheep will also go on the attack regarding the excessive legal bill for Skycity deal negotiations. Trouble all around for John Key today.

      • In Vino Veritas

        Spokesmen for the same EPMU that let the Pike River miners down so very badly JB?

    • johnbronkhorst

      Spoke people for the EPMU?

  • blokeintakapuna

    As the election draws nearer – desperation will increase within Labour.. and the political left. NZ, along with the World, will watch the Aussie Labour Party get totally annihilated at next month’s election… and NZ Labour will be praying like mad that none of the fall-out will reflect on them… too late though…
    If the “Power at all costs” policy failed miserably… Norman’s QE Policy failed miserably… Man Ban… Face Palm… Chan Ban… Double face Palm…. what new lows will the political Left stoop to in their vein attempts to re-gain the Treasury Cheque book?
    Desperate creatures do desperate things… and with quite a few month’s left before NZ’s election – don’t be too surprised at more morally bereft actions from the Left…

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      Bloke – You spoke too soon. Rouge Morgan poll is due any time. National down 4%, Labour up by 3% and Greens up by 1% Election result too close to call. Game over.

    • GazzW

      Morally bereft actions? You’re being too charitable BIT. Labour and the greens will dig very deep to personally besmirch the PM or a senior Minister and they will have the support of both the MSM and their army of PSA moles. Campbell will be just bursting for vengeance after the debacle on Wednesday evening.

  • philbest

    The late Prof. Sir Paul Callaghan would have been pleased.

    But honestly, I am not an economic ignoramus like Labour and the Greens are, and I am not at all sure just what NZ is doing right, to be having a manufacturing resurgence.

    I am inclined to think it is the result of process begun long ago under Rogernomics. There is also a certain “Kiwi ingenuity” thing that manages to succeed in spite of everything.

    I guess a lot of our relevant policy settings are no worse than most other OECD countries. The thing we are doing most wrong, is strangling our urban economies, which is where manufacturing is based, with urban growth containment policies. These policies are a significant part of what killed manufacturing in the UK starting 60 years ago. They are the one thing that Maggie Thatcher tragically did not address. The result of this is that many of Thatcher’s opponents have been proved right on some points. When economic land rent swallows most of the gains of productivity, of course “labour” and the household sector get squeezed, but so does the employers of labour and the investors in physical capital. An economy that is a paradise for property speculators is hell for everybody else.

    Urban land prices inflating to the benefit of the rentier class, is like a cancer on the productive organs of the economy. It swallows financial capital that should have been invested in productive physical capital, it increases labour force cost demand pressures, it reduces efficient “churn” of land uses and workforce physical mobility, it increases the cost of land to businesses, it reduces “clustering” of complementary business activities, it forces the central bank to impose higher interest rates, and it even drives the value of the national currency higher. In the absence of reform, I would expect the current resurgence in NZ manufacturing to be unsustainable, whatever the reasons are for it emerging in the first place. (Of course urban land prices have not been a problem in most of the years since Rogernomics).

    Another thing that Thatcher’s critics have been right about, is that the sell-off of “public” housing in the UK has not been good for the lowest income earners, who have ended up priced out of the housing market anyway 20-30 years later; however, that is because of the urban planning system, not because of the sell-off.

  • philbest

    But manufacturing is going back up in the USA. One of the reasons for this is that parts of the USA now have the world’s cheapest urban land (due to an absence of “planning” constraints), and low cost natural gas is available. Plus of course
    workforces that are educated and have low housing costs. And low local taxes, and workplace laws that are not punitively weighted against the employer.

    This is why cities like Houston have grown from 4 million people in
    2000 to 5 million in 2010. Atlanta and Austin and Raleigh are growing at
    a similar rate. This is not happening in the coastal States where they have all the same anti-growth, anti-business stuff as the UK, EU, Oz and NZ.