No cut through for Labour, despite GCSB and Snapper

The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll is out and there isn’t a skerrick of good news for David Shearer. NZ Power is a dead duck, Kiwi Build still born, both policies touted as circuit breakers and total polling failures for Labour.

With spring just around the corner and no impact in the polls despite endless headlines against the government, the Labour caucus is just going to have to face facts, David Shearer is tits and they are cowards for not doing anything about it.

David Shearer’s big punt on bold new policy has failed to fire, with the latest Fairfax Media-Ipsos political poll suggesting he is having no impact on voters.

The poll shows Labour continues to wallow in the doldrums on just 31.6 per cent, a five-point slide from the start of the year. In contrast, National has emerged all but unscathed from a difficult few months to poll at 48.3 per cent – down about one point from May, but up more than four on the start of the year. 

The Greens are on 12.3 per cent support, NZ First 2.8 per cent and the Conservatives 1.4 per cent, outpolling the other minor parties including ACT and United Future, despite being outside Parliament.

The result will plunge Mr Shearer’s leadership further into question, and suggests the divisions laid bare over Labour’s so-called “man ban” may have cancelled out any potential gains from bold new policy promises, including a ban on foreign speculators in an overheated housing market.

And he is not out of the woods yet – those divisions could resurface at the party’s annual conference later this year, when party rank and file are likely to debate female quotas again. A loss in the long-held Christchurch East seat in a by-election later this year could put Mr Shearer under further pressure.

Despite trying to bury the poll on the inside pages and putting Andrea Vance’s beat-up of supposed concern about the GCSB on the front page, I’d say David Shearer is toast.

 


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  • Please don’t get rid of Sheep!

  • Justsayn

    Butter and marmite please, but I suspect we don’t munch until after the next election – let the fish take the plunge.

  • johnbronkhorst

    Seats in house.
    National……58
    Labour……..38
    Greens……..15
    UF…………….1
    ACT…………..1
    Maori Party…4
    Mana………….1
    over hang……2
    due to percentages, National will get BOTH over hang seats.
    ie National + ACT = Govt.

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      Why everybody is conveniently forgetting Rogue Morgan poll which shows Sheep will the PM?

      • johnbronkhorst

        Haven’t you misspelled that:
        Rogue….=…..Rouge

        • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

          John Bro – I think I need to give you media lessons I think…

          Rogue = An unprincipled, deceitful, and unreliable person; a scoundrel or rascal – this poll is all about that….

          Rouge is the French word for “red” and may refer to: Rouge (cosmetics), a cosmetic used to colour the cheeks and emphasize the cheekbones;

          • johnbronkhorst

            So they actually have the SAME meaning?

          • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

            Both say John Key is toast…..

          • Arran Hunt

            And both say Shearer should be leader… clearly unprincipled, deceitful and unreliable.

          • Meg

            Talking about John Key I see.

          • Arran Hunt

            Nope, John Key already is this nation’s leader, and has been for a few years now. You really should try and keep up.

          • IWantToBeLikeMallardOneDay

            Rouge can also mean commie tosspot which is why both names fit the bill perfectly.

      • What Rouge Morgan Poll?

        • Arran Hunt
          • Yes, yes, I saw it yesterday.

            Amusingly, it hasn’t got much coverage in the press.

            I wonder why?

            Did something much more interesting happen?

          • Arran Hunt

            Not according to the NZHerald. They seem to find news that is a few weeks old (and covered on here a believe) as being worthy of the front page.

          • GazzW

            Newstalk ZB ascertained that the Rouge Morgan poll was worthy of being the major headline this morning. Reaction to the GCSB blah, blah, blah. No mention of the Fairfax poll so far.

          • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

            The Stranded are celebrating the Roy-Morgan poll and even organising for a victory parade along Queen street…..

          • IWantToBeLikeMallardOneDay

            Japanese eye licking in the Herald about two months after the story was proven bogus…

          • Gary Morgan is on crack

        • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

          Sir Petal – the poll which nailed the National party coffin….

      • peterwn

        All things equal, one would expect John Key and National to be on the back foot at this point. What is surprising is National ios not on the back foot in all major polls.

      • middleagedwhiteguy

        I’m stoked with the Roy Morgan result…..It’ll help keep Shearer in the top job!

    • BobaJob

      jbh – anyone know how the Nats are polling in Ohariu-Belmont or Epson? vs the incumbents?

  • Mr_Blobby

    Why are you wasting time on poll results.

    The margin for error the variance between various Polls, just a waste of time.

    • StacyMcNaught

      I think it is because we all keep wasting our time reading and commenting on them Mr Blobby.

      • Doug

        Just love watching TV3 fawn over the Roy Morgan poll, you would think Labour are going to be the new Government next week. Fits in with the Campbell campaign.

        • rockape

          Doug, the reason the press are interested in that poll is they think it validates all their interest in GCSB matters. They made it a big issue as they thought it would dent National, its not that important to the average KIWI and once the bill is passed its history and life will go on and nothing has changed.

          • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

            When the GCSB bill passes today, we need to see the garden gnome’s face…he will be saying democracy died today, personal freedom died today blah blah….I won’t be surprised if FatCon appears on Campbell Still Alive tonight…..

          • GregM

            I wouldn’t be surprised if Fatcon ends up on the Labia party list.

          • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

            That is what my spies are telling me…the reason will be – “To protect democracy and get rid of this authoritarian government”

          • rockape

            What would the price be, free porne for some Labour MPs

          • He’d need to be a NZ citizen first, and that won’t happen while there are criminal charges against him in the USA.

          • Patrick

            With Campbell sitting on his lap

          • rockape

            Starring as the ventriloqists dummy.

          • tarkwin

            Could be interesting. Have we ever had an M.P extradited before?

          • Bender the minder

            Guess who si buying TV# airtime ???? Fatcon…

    • rockape

      They are a waste of time only if you are dumb enough to think they predict the result of the election 15 months away. However what they predict quite accurately if done properly is the current satisfaction with the parties at this moment in time. They therefore give a good guide on where a party is going and whether it needs to do more to improve its election chances. Not completely useless then!

  • rockape

    I can see why JK is distancing himself from NZ First. If they get above the 5% then they would be close to dictating the next Government. If NZ First get dispatched to the wilderness, and I think Winston is losing his shine, then National should Govern. Edit- I think if JK even suggests linking with NZ First then Winstons status goes up as will his vote.

  • kevin

    How many folk actually ‘know’ a labour support/voter? I do, one only and staunch as. Public servant.

    • Time For Accountability

      Dunedin being a university city and an older population there are lots of blind non thinking voters who vote Labour.

      This is why the put their embarrassments such as Curran and R Clarke in the safe sets they could not win in a thinking electorate.

    • IWantToBeLikeMallardOneDay

      I know lots of old baby boomers and seniors who still think Labour is for the working man. The younger ones are idiots who’ve been indoctrinated in academic institutions and ironically have neither worked a day in their lives, or even know people who have real jobs.

  • rockape

    If I was a Labour caucus member I would be using these polls. They are agood indicator that Labour is not getting any traction and despite Normans good profile neither are the Greens. I would ask myself why and it should be blatently obvious that for Labour its policies that dont appeal to the majority and a leader that is proving ineffectual. Does anyone realy see Shearer as a PM! Russel Norman on the other hand has a personal problem as large as if he was caught Kiddey fiddling, that is he is an Aussie! Add to that Green policies are so anti everything kiwis want Jobs, Industry Thriving Mining and the wealth it could bring, and quite frankly they have cried wolf so many times on Peak oil, global warming, no one believes them anymore. The only reason they are polling double figures is Labour are so bloody awful!

  • AnonWgtn

    When Shearer goes the current Greenpeace poll will drop as Labourites return to the fold.
    Irrespective of the new leader.
    Sadly nice guy Shearer now only smells of Snapper – is that the best he can do, or was he set up by Robertson affectionadoes and Fanny – looking to keep her HO job, although she fell out with the Robertson gang, which led to her demise.

  • rockape

    What is amazing is that Labour, on the snapper issue , is not attacking a goverment policy. They are attack a worste scenario proposal,one of three, that have been put to the minister by a Goverment department. All that will happen is National will not reduce the recreational catch and Labour will have wasted all this effort and National will gain more smarty points for “listening to the people”. Labour dont seem to realize, the election is just round the corner and they are wasting a lot of time and effort on nonevents.

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      You are dreaming rockape…my spies inside Beehive told me that John Key has decided to protect all types of fish in the ocean and rivers. He is going to impose a blanket ban on recreational fishing…..

      • rockape

        So thats why he was cuddling up to snapper the other day!

    • Plue

      Completely agree with you rockape. Clearly JK has figured out this isn’t popular after all it was he who basically started this with his crack on Campbell Live (just) There is no way he is going to piss off the 30,000 people who could be bothered posting a submission in. There are at least another 2 to 3 times that who couldn’t be bothered. Given that Labour and the Greens think National is the party that doesn’t care about the environment why do they think they will worry about protecting some fish. Few more fish in the chilly bin a few more votes seems a no brainer to me.

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    This poll is unreliable. This was taken before the Auckland town hall meeting where Sheep showed his leadership skills. Also wait for an announcement from FatCon that he will be joining the Labour party soon…..

    • CheesyEarWax

      Fatcon joining a party…hahah.

      • AnonWgtn

        Well somebody has got to finance the Labour Party for the next election – simply they have no money currently and struggle to get any. Williams for all his sins did a good job in getting sponsors.
        You would have thought that Little Timmy would get sponsors from his many homo friends, as they are all the rage since homo marriage was introduce by Lovissa (Maori for Louisa) Wall.
        What dose Moira Coatsworth do as Labour’s President, beside get paid ?

    • Phil J Fry

      yup, will be on the list as No 2..watch the space.

  • Lou

    If National underestimates the effect the GSCB is having it will be a mistake. That stink will be used over and over again. National has failed to explain to the laymen in the street, yup the guys that vote, what the GCSB is all about and allowed everybody and his Kim to create clouds of distrusts.

    National needs a real spin doctor to cover the smaller items – expecting Keys to front everything is counter productive – he should only be rolled out for the real stuff – get somebody in National to own up.

    Oh wait there isn’t anybody else …. anybody in the caucus want to do some work? Anybody? Hello?

    • rockape

      What rubbish, you can hardly say Joyce,English and Collins are low profile. Dont you read the papers, isnt Joyce described as Mr Fixit, now go away and do some homework and come back when you can behave and argue like a grown up.

      • Lou

        I did and then you piped up. If you can’t have a reasonable argument go and play outside with the other kids. At least it will get you some more exposure to the real world. Why do I bother

        • rockape

          So you think Joyce and Collins have a low profile! You think English isnt pulling his weight. Did you read the drop in Maori crime statistics the other day, who was the minister involved. Ministers are doing a good job, with a couple of exceptions. Results speak far louder than Grandstanding.

          • Lou

            And that brings me to my point of explaining to the voters what National is accomplishing – we are all shareholders in NZ Inc. (ha made a funny) – and if the board does not keep us up to date on what they are doing in language that we understand – they can just as well do nothing. The opposition will tell us what they are not doing quickly enough.

            Its is all about perception – people do not go and find out how much the crime figures have dropped – you need to tell them – we are all lazy sods – spoon feed us.

          • rockape

            They did major press release, in all the news !

          • Lou

            To paraphrase Keys – people care more about snapper than Maori crime figures. Because nobody has told them how it influences them – so the crime figures are down – there will be more cops to look at my snapper catch then hey?

        • rockape

          The reason Key looks like a one man band at times is nothing to do with the workload, its to do with him and his popularity being Labours target. As long as Keys popularity is high, National will be elected. Labour have and continue to try to bring him down.

        • dyannt

          “Why do I bother”
          A very good question.
          Do you have a good answer?

          • Lou

            Not one that you would understand.

    • dyannt

      The Prime Minister is the minister in charge of the Security Service. I can imagine what you would have to say if he palmed his responsibilities off onto someone else.

      • Lou

        I agree – GCSB is the big one at the moment – Keys should front. But I do not see other ministers taking their portfolios – except English – and owning it.

        It dilutes JK’s value if he has to talk about the small things – Guy should be slapped with a fish for the whole snapper thing – what was he thinking, his spin on it was completely wrong.

        • BobaJob

          A skilled leader will always step in, at 1st it didn’t seem like a big thing, but a bit of mishandling by Guy and 30,000 submission later. I can’t fault Key on his handling of it.

    • Will

      It’s Key, not Keys. What is so hard about his surname ffs. It’s just three letters. He’s only been PM for nearly five years. KEY NOT KEYS!!!!

      • Lou

        Sorry. And sorry to Jhon as well.

  • rockape

    How would I set Labour up for oblivion! Firstly I would grant all the mining and drilling licenses I could in the next six months. Stand back and watch Labour and the Greens oppose Jobs and wealth. Secondly I would rush through and expand charter schools and watch Labour and the Greens oppose good education and threaten to close down kids schools. I would have a major campaign on fraud, tax and benefit fraud and watch Labour try and oppose that. Next I would move elections to a 4 year cycle,Labour and Greens would have to do a flip flop now to oppose that. People are fed up with elections so would like that one. Lastly I would end the snapper problem by keeping the recreational limit were it is but expanding fisheries officers and their powers and the penalties for illegal fishing. Shit, but what do I know!

    • johnbronkhorst

      Already happening over snapper. labour want commercial catch limits (quota’s) reduced. For that read…..”we are against jobs in fishing, fish processing and exporting” “we are for food inflation via fish prices”.

      • AnonWgtn

        The Maori will not allow commercial fishing quota to drop – they are the principal quota holders

      • worksux

        Get fucken real, Most of our fish are caught by NZ quota holders employing Asian crews, The fish are processed of shore.

        • johnbronkhorst

          Bull shit!!!
          There are large on shore processing sites, as well as NZ crewed factory ships and fishing boats. All at risk if quotas are reduced too far!!

    • Salacious T Crumb

      On fire today Ape – I’ll vote for you

  • blokeintakapuna

    Labour Party – out of the pan… and into the fire should they dump Shearer.
    Shearer remains Labour’s only viable “leader” until after the election – ironically by virtue of Key’s brilliance. Because none of the other “factions” want to try and go head to head against Key in a leadership battle/confrontation/contest – as they know they would fail… and they (usually) only have one shot at winning an election… so will wait until after that horse has bolted. Just like how a turkey doesn’t wish for an early Christmas.
    …and the cries from Robertson and Cunliffe that they’re 100% behind their current leader will be even more telling than a new suit and haircut or a diet that works.
    So by virtue of Key’s brilliance, Shearer remains “safe” and the Labour Party factions will keep their powder dry – even knowing they will loose with the current incumbent… because a Labour Party at it’s lowest ebb, totally defeated and demoralised, fractured along faction alliances will be the only way a “new” leader will be able to effectively “rebuild” the party after the failed Shearer experiment…

    • GregM

      You could be right Bloke. As long as there are factions who can’t or won’t work together, it wouldn’t matter who the leader is. I can’t see how anyone can reunite the factions and get them all singing the same tune again, i think it’s too late, and the party is history.

      • blokeintakapuna

        For this election – I think you’re right too. The factions will only really start working together once they’ve hit rock bottom… and the only way is up. For that to happen – they need another trouncing come election time – which they will be given – like it or not.

        Once the Shearer experiment is over – there will be one less “faction” internally – but a much stronger and emboldened Greens and NZ1st and Maori Party… and they’ll want to eat Labour’s lunch over the following 3 or 4 years because Labour will have cost them a seat in Parliament.
        Shearer will have all the factions “100% behind him” – except he won’t be leading them – they’ll be pushing him in front of everyone else as a convenient shield/fall guy… as no one will want the poisoned chalice leadership role having to battle all the internal Labour factions, the other external political left parties… and then Key & National.
        Ironically Shearer remains “safe” because of Key’s brilliance… as the left have no one that could compete with him this side of the election – nor the other side either most likely.

        • rockape

          Disagree bloke, I think when they hit rock bottom there will be a split. A more centerist party and a far left party. That way they will appeal to both sides of Labour and together with the Greens may win in 2017.

          • blokeintakapuna

            There’s always that option too. The 4-headed Taniwha becomes the 5-headed Taniwha…
            … and we’ve all heard the fable – 2 heads are better than 1…

          • johnbronkhorst

            Better come up with some better and workable policies!!

          • rockape

            National pinched them all so they would have to adopt all Nationals policies, hows that going to work!

    • johnbronkhorst

      “Labour’s only viable “leader” until after the election ” to call shearer a “leader” is a stretch of anyone’s imagination. But agree, there is no one else!
      Never truer…”better the devil you know, than the devil you don’t”

    • Meg

      Had to laugh at the 2 words Key and brilliance side by side.

      What a joke.

  • rockape

    There are areas where National are vulnerable but why are Labour not attacking on Nationals weakness. A lot of beaurocrats are letting National down. Nelson DHB recruiting 6 new managers while cutting nursing staff to name just one example! Not sure the minister is aware that front line staff are being cut and backroom staff increased!

  • Bryan

    the biggest thing is this poll was taken before John Keys snapper party with campbell which we know has knock most of labours arguments for a 6 and now coupler with shearers Foot and mouth disease yesterday the next poll is going to be the interesting one and above all The morgan poll is done by Australians and we know they are ringing under age kids to base their opinions so its worthless and what did Key say last weds that they been polling every week at 49% which todays poll is very close too
    So it looks like a three horse race and two of them dead in the water and rest don’t count and the Maori voters have played with mana etc but faced with a choice of being part of Govt or out in the cold in opposition they have gained much under 6 years with John key and national and also been treated with a lot more respect than Labour has ever treated them

  • Meg

    And another poll has Labour and the Greens in power and National dropping quite a bit.

    Go figure.

    • rockape

      IEEE your up to your usual low standard of comment Meg. A go at JK and harping about the one poll that Labour cling to National are still averqgingn15% ahead of Labour so watch this space. Labour still leaderless, policy less and like you only capable of playing the man not the issues. National are ashoe in without their support parties. Then watch the Maori party nz first come crawling.

    • GregM

      Not so fast Meg , After the revelation that Shearer went behind Dr Normans back talking to JK about the GCSB bill, a Labour / Green coalition is looking less likely.

    • rockape

      The fairfax poll looks good for National , the Morgan poll is always over the place. I wouldn’t hang your hopes on what is a notoriously bad poll and where they even include people of non voting age, down to 16 Years old. But whatever keeps you happy,like Shearer sleep walking to failure.

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