Aussie Election General Discussion

The exit polls are showing a bloodbath with a predicted 35-40 seat majority for Tony Abbott.

Normally exit polls (illegal in NZ) are considered more accurate because people feel free to tell the truth as their vote is now cast.

Now bear in mind these are Roy Morgan exit polls they still show a massive win to Tony Abbott and the Liberals.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE

L-NP ALP
2010 ELECTION 49.9% 50.1%
SEP.  6TH 53.5% 46.5%
EXIT POLLS
12PM 52% 48%
1PM 51.5% 48.5%
2PM 52% 48%
3PM 52% 48%
4PM 52% 48%
5PM 52% 48%
6PM 52% 48%

The final Newspoll of the election campaign also sowed a bloodbath in the offing.

The Coalition is on course to gain at least 22 seats and up to 32 in the worst case for Labor, including the seat of Treasurer Chris Bowen, and with Kevin Rudd’s Brisbane seat of Griffith at risk…

On a two-party-preferred basis, using preference flows at the last election, the Coalition’s lead remains 54 per cent to Labor’s 46 per cent – the same result in a Nielsen Poll published today by Fairfax Media.

The Nielson poll showed Labor’s vote has collapsed:

Australians are preparing to sweep aside six years of Labor rule, installing Tony Abbott as the country’s 28th prime minister in an electoral verdict leaving no room for doubt.

A swing of 4 per cent against Kevin Rudd’s government threatens to strip the ALP of future stars as voters cast a harsh judgment on the party’s internal divisions.

A poll shows electors will turn their backs on big-picture policies to price carbon, tax big miners, and build a first-class national broadband network, in favour of the smaller horizons of reduced debt, smaller government, and a new domestic-first focus.

The latest Age/Nielsen survey suggests 54 per cent of the nation’s 14.7 million electors are embracing the Coalition.

Labor’s primary vote has slumped to 33 per cent, with the Coalition on 46 per cent.

Primary support for Labor, and Mr Rudd’s own popularity, are now as low or lower than they were in June 2010, suggesting the party that has twice changed prime ministers and torn itself apart in the search for votes is back where it started.

Enjoy the discussion and results as they come in.

UPDATE: Sky News Exit poll predicts a landslide victory for Tony Abbot and the Liberals:

The Sky News/Newspoll exit poll just after 4pm (AEST) shows the opposition will win 97 seats, a 25-seat gain, while Labor will lose 21 seats and have only 51 MPs in parliament.

It says the only crossbenchers to keep their seats would be Tasmanian Andrew Wilkie and Queenslander Bob Katter.

Greens MP Adam Bandt is predicted to lose the seat of Melbourne.

The two-party preferred result, based on marginal seats in NSW and Queensland, gave the coalition 53 per cent of the vote to Labor’s 47 per cent.

The poll suggests the coalition won 45 per cent of the primary vote, also calculated from those marginal seats.

Labor collected 36 per cent of the primary, Greens got 8 per cent and others 11 per cent.

 


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

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