Fairfax poll shows Labour’s woes continue

The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows that Labour’s woe continue despite selecting the new messiah to save their flagging fortunes.

David Cunliffe’s dream start as Labour leader has failed to derail John Key’s push for a third term.

That’s the message from a new Fairfax Media-Ipsos poll that shows the  gap between the two big parties, which narrowed in the wake of Labour’s leadership ‘‘primary’’, has reversed, leaving National on track to win the next election.

Labour is up two percentage points to 33.6 per cent since the last Fairfax poll, completed in August before the leadership spill that saw Cunliffe replace David Shearer.

But National is also up two points, and holds a huge 17-point lead over Labour, winning the backing of more than 50 per cent of committed voters.



On the latest poll numbers, National would win 63 seats in a 124-seat Parliament and be able to govern alone, assuming an overhang from minor parties holding their electorate seats.

That will be a major blow to Labour’s morale, after a series of polls since Cunliffe took up the reins showed National slipping into the mid-40s and the combined Labour-Green bloc having the numbers to win power.

Labour’s small rise since August seems to have come at the expense of its main ally, with the Greens down 1.6 percentage points to 10.7 per cent during a period when co-leader Russel Norman was overseas and out of the media spotlight.

NZ First slid slightly to 2.3 per cent and the Conservatives – currently being talked up by John Key as a potential coalition partner, languished at 0.7 per cent, against 1.4 per cent in August.

Mana and the Maori Party were also on 0.7 per cent, while ACT and UnitedFuture barely registered at 0.1 per cent apiece.


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  • greg

    Surprising that Labour got 33%.

    • thor42

      Agreed Greg. Anyway, it’s good news for the Nats.
      Very good to see the Greens support dropping a bit too – that is crucial.

    • thor42

      Agreed Greg. Anyway, it’s good news for the Nats.
      Very good to see the Greens support dropping a bit too – that is crucial.

    • steve and monique

      Taken votes away from the Greens, and other parties,

      • Dumrse

        It’s the Brown drain.

  • GazzW

    I would have thought that Noddy’s absence overseas would have increased support for the Greens.

  • Pete George

    Brian: I am NOT the Messiah!
    Arthur: I say you are Lord, and I should know. I’ve followed a few.

    David: I AM the Messiah to anyone I can pander to!
    Take your pick from The Standard: We say you are Lord, and we should know. We’ve followed a few.

  • blokeintakapuna

    … The only poll that matters is on election night…

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      yeah, now we are talking!!!

  • notrotsky

    I don’t think there’s a shit show of the nat’s governing alone, they still desperately need a coalition partner from somewhere.

    i also expect Winston to start flailing around wildly perhaps with some asian or maori bashing to try and lift his poll results.

    • thor42

      Yes, they do.

      Anyway – Labour have got to be attacked relentlessly. Their BS “living wage” policy is the *core* of their support. That policy will NOT work – it will simply increase unemployment as businesses lay off people because of the increased wage costs.

      That FACT needs to be spread far and wide to the masses.

      • rockape

        We already have the 5 th highest minimum wage in the OECD if we went to$18.40 it would be the highest. Can we afford that?

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    Just woke up and as always reading Whale Oil as the first activity….grrr….hmmm…ahhh…rogue poll…wait for the reliable Rogue Morgan poll coming out next week….

  • Right on the eve of the Labour Party conference too; anyone for a debate about a Man-Ban this week?

  • Pissedoffyouth

    Do you think the reason that TV3 and NZHERALD are creaming their pants trying to get Labour in power is because, as failing businesses, they know they can’t survive without some kind of government subsidy or funding?

  • Mrbadger

    Sweet fuck-all in the Herald (on-line) funny that eh?

    • AM

      Well, it was a Fairfax poll…

  • JeffDaRef

    They continue to under-estimate the electorate, who see through their bumper sticker lolly scrambles and know the lefty policies simply dont work in the real world!!

  • conwaycaptain

    The new will have Lucy Lawless shouting at the Labour Conf for a 15% subsidy for the film industry. A halt to all drilling mining etc.
    Wish these empty headed “actors” would stop shouting out about things they know nuffink about

  • Toryboy

    Phew! (I had been worried for a few weeks there)

  • Salacious T Crumb

    The message for National at the next election must be to get people to cast their vote. The voter turnout at the last polls was poor.

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      the ones who didn’t come to vote are the lazy Labour voters bro….so don’t wake them up….

      • Pissedoffyouth


        • Dave

          Think we are safe, most wake up the day before Bene day to plan the exact number of beers and green tobacco they can get, this keeps them awake for 3 to 5 days, then hybernate again, and so the cycle continues. Lesson for Nats, hold election 5 to 6 days after Bene day, ban handouts of food and drink at polling places.

          • Pissedoffyouth

            You know it would be interesting to see if dole day is the busiest day for petrol and beer purchases in Northland…

            6 days after benefit day only around 300 people would vote Labour as the Falcon won’t start on less than $5 gas

            i used to work at a Shell and the amount of people who would drive big mercedes or Holden/Ford tanks yet only could afford $7 gas. Yet they always had money for Port Royal and filters

          • cows4me

            Perhaps Labia will need to push for polling stations in front of the WINZ offices. And the general election will have to be on benefit day. Get that core support before the mind altering substances can kick in.

          • IWantToBeLikeMallardOneDay

            That one made me crack up!

  • CheesyEarWax

    This poll shows Rusty Norman should be the outright leader of the Greens. Turei can be his secretary and Gareth should be his deputy. More telling is Labour failed to capitalised on all the exposure of the leadership challenge.

    • justin

      Notice how the media keep that troll well hidden from the public. Commie Norman puts on the better routine of “normal greenie”.

    • Cadwallader

      Maybe Gareth is Norman’s Bevan?

    • AnonWgtn

      Greenpeace rules that there shall be two of the opposite sex in the lead roles.
      Not sure which one is which though.

  • sheppy

    I sure hope this is a reflection of the actual vote, it would be very sad to watch Labia & the Gweens throw the economy into the toilet

  • Rimutaka

    Conservatives polling the same as the Maori party, does this mean that national will gift Colin a seat like they gerrymandered Epsom?

    How many times have we heard “National Could govern alone” compared to how many times has it actually happened.

    • rrroberto

      Gerrymander is implicit in MMP. The race based seats and their consequent overhang is a gerrymander. Ohariu was not a gerrymander when it suited Labia, but it is now? Sydenham was a gerrymander not much different to Epsom. It becomes very obvious that the critical electorate seats are those which are won by an allied party which comes at little cost to a major parties party vote. Want to get rid of Gerrymander, then get rid of MMP, the system where the tail is bigger than the dog. Under the current system, it is the democratic right of the electors of Eden to swallow a rat for the greater good..if that is their perception. Labia now getting worried that there may be 3 gerrymanders, Ohariu, Epsom, and somewhere near Albany needed to pip the alliance of Labia,Gween,Hone and Win1st, a spectre hovering over the country like the four horsemen of the apocalypse..Cunliffe,Wussel, Hone , and Winston. Ladies and Gentlemen, the opposition parties combine to implement the major plank of McGillicudy, the Great Leap Backwards

      • justin

        Key had the mandate to fix up MMP and decided to keep the status quo – something the Nats may come to regret.

        • rrroberto

          maybe he thought he would have more gerrymandered seats than the opposition, that is before the recent troubles in Ohariu and Epsom. A desperate Labour may look to a Gerrymander a deal with Hone. Provide no effective opposition in Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki, in return for party vote. You have a nice avatar

          • Dave

            A Maori / Mana deal is likely, they are now polling the same – Hone will be crowing, demanding more though, he will want to lead the combined party, and make all his rellies some sort of official. If that happens, in humanitarian spirit, i invite fellow kiwis to move to Aussie.

          • rrroberto

            O well if Mana do a deal with MP, then they wont be doing a deal with Labour. And National will know that they have lost a potential coalition partner. The big rort comes when Mana-Maori win say 5% of seats. (say 6 seats) through the apartheid door, while getting say 2and a half percent of the votes. That means they get 2 and a half percent more than they should of MMP was honestly proportional, and you can see how important this becomes when the big squabble is going to be around the last 5 percent of the vote.
            In defence of the original proponents of MMP, the unproportional nature of it through the apartheid seats was not part of their original proposal. Honest solution if MMP was to continue and be truly proportional, give the parties the exact proportion, and if it means trimming some parties back from electoral seats, then that the price you pay to combine apartheid with proportionality.

  • Col

    No this can’t be right, they made a mistake and put Nats where Lab was too be on the graph, Labour have a new leader this can’t be right but it is right.

    • AnonWgtn

      Rogue Poll.

  • timemagazine

    Couldn’t we do something to keep Russell Norman for ever oversees? Maybe some of the whale’s readers have an idea.

    • Statehousekid

      Talk him into protesting on a Russian oil rig with a Tibetan flag.

    • rrroberto

      Honeytwap in China,no make that Tibet

    • Col

      He could go to Russia and have a go at releasing the Greenies, and he could stay awhile if we ask Putin.

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    OK, just off the coconut mobile with Curryleaf. He delivered the following messages to the Whale Oil bros who are grinning from ear to ear…

    1. Ispos poll is not officially recognised by Labour. So it doesn’t matter

    2. Despite that Curryleaf points out that Labour is polling way above election night result – “people are turning to Labour in droves” – says Curryleaf

    3. Wait for some innovative tax ideas in the Labour conference

    4. Curryleaf will be announcing some huge spending initiatives

    5. As part of the regional growth initiatives, Labour government will open a match stick factory in Levin, His policy team is predicting a world wide shortage of match sticks in 2 years time

    More to come……

    • Dave

      Ah SCS, but who, who from the labour camp will be qualified to run a match factory in Levin. That will take some skill, and some real maths making that work, i mean the humble Bic Lighter made the match 50% redundant over 40 years ago, surely. We can only hope the labour genius’s have worked out they will need $10Mill a year to prop up another labour loss making venture.

      PS: Labour might be better to ban computers and then force people to send mail, imagine the number of Unionised posties that could generate, providing they use push bikes, as their 50% owner, the NZ wanky Greens wont allow fossil fuel to be used

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        Dave – the idea is sustainable forest to be grown by their commie Green hippies. Then Labourers will harvest the trees and the cut trees will be used for match stick making….hippies will replant trees and the cycle continues….everybody will get paid $18.40 per hour….life is peaceful….get the drift?

        p.s. What about a 50 cents Email fee for every email sent? That will keep NZ Post rumbling for a long time, My master Sir Cullen could happily cruise around….

        • Dave

          As long SCS, as to keep the Tuataras happy, the forests are sustainable, and they are cutting them down with traditional tools as used by their other 10% owner, the Maori/Mana coalition. Oh, and they pay them their exorbitant fees for a daily blessing, removal of Tanawhais etc etc etc etc etc, as they will be ongoing. Don’t forget SCS, if in Levin, they will also need to build a world class airport, (the old Airstrip at FozPine will be too far away) complete with lounge, can’t have the indigenous people travelling to Levin without the luxurious trappings and trough they are so accustomed to.

          • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

            Dave stop confusing me…my Labour brain cannot think of all possibilities like this….may be I introduce a new tax?!?!

        • cows4me

          And what’s the bet the pricks will pay no carbon tax on those beautiful trees chopped down to make said matches.

          • IWantToBeLikeMallardOneDay

            They’ll put uni students in red berets and send them into the country to find “kulaks” like you :-p

      • AnonWgtn

        NZ Post is only in trouble because it keeps having to prop up – not lend – to KiwiBank, because otherwise it would be shut down as not solvent, under New Zealand Reserve Bank Solvency Rules.
        KiwiBank has been subsidised by Taxpayer since it started – still only has 4% market share, many of those customers whereby the borrowers could not get loans from the major market players.

        • Dave

          I don’t disagree wit hyou re Kiwibank ,atrocious. Arriving back in NZ we wanted a small mortgage (300K on a purchase of $850K) and a contract for over 2 years of income at almost half the mortgage. What do you know, we were declined. a broker described our chances with them as slim, and had over 20 offers within 24 hours. He went on to say, we earn’t too much for them, and was not ethnic.

          However, my main Gripe, NZ Post is not an efficient retail operation. They sit on some of the BEST retail in NZ, and their offer is amongst the worst i have seen. Their busy period combines with staff getting lunch breaks, whereas they should all be ready to go. Humour me, play count the flies. Look in the front window of a few Post shops, I did a few years ago when pitching to them, over 60% had at least 8 dead flies in the windows. The opportunity for them to retail, and retail far better / more $$, is amazing. They still confuse their purpose / mission.

          • Pissedoffyouth

            I still don’t know why they don’t have it like in airports where I can weigh my package, pay for it and print a label in a self service kiosk.

            Waiting in that queue while nana renews her license or Johnny just-got-off-the-plane doesn’t understand how to fill in a registration form makes me want to slit my wrists.

          • Dave

            There were some good people there, and they were working on a self service kiosk, no doubt NZ’s finest unions scarpered that. It should be simple.
            1) place parcel here (kiosk weighs parcel)
            2) Chose destination /s Town / City or Rural
            3) insert C/card or eftpos card, payment complete….
            4) Duplicate label prints, attach to parcel, keep other as receipt and to track online.
            5) Optional – enter recipients mobile no or email, so NZ Snail mail can text / email them updates.

          • Pissedoffyouth

            Exactly. I send a few things through trademe auctions and no matter what time of day I go there are at least 7 people in the queue in the Newmarket post office.

            Heck, put an ATM like box on the outside so I can send shit after hours – if I can deposit cash at the bank after hours why can’t I send a used PS3 game?

          • Dave

            POY now your being far too rational for NZ Roast, that might displace someone, and labor and unions cant have anyone out of a job. BUT, a huge opportunity, years ago I suggested Fastway do a strategic deal with all BP / Shell outlets with a simple system, very similar, and the servo’s are open 24/7 in most cases. Enter all details on line, even integrate with TradeMe at check out!! Enter weight, dimensions, label produced on your own printer, drop off at the servo nominated. End of story.

            NZ Post could not cope with something as innovative as that.

    • Phar Lap

      You left out alleged CGT inheritance tax ,inflation indexed,by their commie running mates .The Green Taleban NZ style.

    • Alfred12

      Innovative tax ideas from Labour = Oxy Moron!

  • Phar Lap

    Certainly confirms how much the doomed NZ Herald have been lying about polls .Their headline” Labour rockets in polls”.Get it right herald.For once in your hell bent for destruction life of your comic cut newspaper FFS tell the truth,you pack of manifest liars..

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      The word on the street is Fairfox-Ispos poll is unreliable…Ganesh Nana is doing some numbers around this…

    • kaykaybee

      Herald now on the same integrity level as thedoublestandard itself. If it’s not good news for Labour or bad news for Nats they don’t bring it up.

  • RightOfGenghis

    Now the oppo has a leader who seems to be able to massage two words into a sound bite, the MSM are not having to go to the greens to get a headline. So it’s not surprising the greens have taken a bit of a dive..

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    I wonder what will be the reaction in “The Stranded”…..they will simply ignore this poll. Retards there think Rogue Morgan poll is the “highly respected” poll….

  • AnonWgtn

    Look forward to the Labour New Conference when the Unions tell Cunliffe what he is to do.
    And reintroduce, the never went away, Man Ban officially.