OneNews poll – National still in high 40s, no cut through for Cunliffe

Despite the spin of Labour about a UMR poll showing National in the 30s we now have a second reputable poll showing National is still riding high in the polls after 5 years.

Worse though is that David Cunliffe hasn’t made any gains at all.

The One News/Colmar Brunton poll shows:

National: 45%
Labour: 34%
Greens: 13%
NZ First: 4%
Maori: 1%
Act: 1%
Conservatives: 2%

John Key is still preferred PM by a big margin:

John Key: 43%
David Cunliffe: 12% 

Word on the tipline is that far from the spin of Labour their internal polling, done by UMR, is showing Shearer like numbers…no cut through at all.

Labour are now seriously considering sending a message too to Len Brown to stand down, his wall to wall coverage is like the coverage of dodgy ratbags for the ALP in NSW affecting Federal results.

Labour hugged Len hard and now his dodgy rooting behaviour seems to be not only taking all the headlines but also drowning out coverage for David Cunliffe.

National meanwhile has weathered the storm and seen off the mild lift in the polls from Cunliffe’s leadership challenge.



THANK YOU for being a subscriber. Because of you Whaleoil is going from strength to strength. It is a little known fact that Whaleoil subscribers are better in bed, good looking and highly intelligent. Sometimes all at once! Please Click Here Now to subscribe to an ad-free Whaleoil.

  • thor42

    Still very much a worry though.

    Labour in the 30s and the Greens stubbornly staying around 12-13%. I’d be a lot happier if Labour were at 22% and the Greens around 6% (or less).

    The Nats have *got* to hammer home the message that Labour’s core policy of the “living wage” will *not work* – it will simply increase costs for businesses and lead to more layoffs of staff. More unemployment.

    At the same time, they have got to hammer the Greens, pointing out that so-called “manmade global warming” has been utterly discredited now.

    • Sean Fitzpatrick

      The message ‘ a vote for Labour means Russel Norman is you next Finance Minister’ would be a good strategy for the Nats.

      • blokeintakapuna

        Loved your work on the paddock.

        • Patrick

          Game of two halves apparently

      • Steve (North Shore)

        Don’t pass it, kick it

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        47% of people like that idea…(Labour + Green)

        • Dave

          But only 22.65% of those can be bothered voting.

    • rockape

      Dont worry too much. Come election week when voters reaky think about a Green/Labour alliance the shit will hit the fan.

      • Toryboy

        Yes I was going to say something similar.
        You can knock 2% off the Green total for a start – being the drop out no hoper teenagers who won’t actually vote; and add 2% to National because if Mr Key spent the last 3 days warning about a change of Government it would rally a soft National vote.

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        Not when they have KFC vouchers …..

    • Mr_V4

      Otherwise called First Past the Post.

  • johnbronkhorst

    Notice on TV1..dear old coren recons that the difference between labour and National is 9%.
    Hey coren, whats 45 – 34?…PRATT

    • sheppy

      A leftie that can’t do maths – who would have expected that!

      • Bob Murphy

        And they want to run the economy.

    • Alfred12

      Yeah saw that, what a dork! No mention of the Fairfax poll either. Must say I’m feeling a lot better than after the RM & last TV3 poll. Bring back FPP!!

  • Rodger T

    Cunny needs to get Wussels financial advisor on the line.

    • Stuarts.burgers

      Bloody funny but also true. Aren’t the Aussie lucky we let them borrow John Clarke

      • Dave

        Yes, and us Aussies sent you Russel Norman in exchange, seems fair, one comedian for another!!

  • sheppy

    Greens @ around 1% seems about the right level for their abilities

    • cows4me

      Being rather generous aren’t you.

      • sheppy

        In defence I’m on holiday and the craft beer is rather good!

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      Come what may they will end up between 10% – 12% on election night.

  • Day Day

    Not much of a honeymoon innit?

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      Nope, that is the good news about these polls

  • Whafe

    These polls have made the long weekend even better….

    Interesting to see that maybe Labour are realising that rooting a corpse, I mean hugging a corpse begins to stink…. Step aside NoShameLenBrown…

    Labour need he Gweens, but Labour cannot get a chubby on over the Gweens…

    • Wine Man

      Man i go away for a weekend and come back and its Christmas already. Now if only that dirty gremlin len will walk the plank!

  • Pissedoffyouth

    Or if we went back to FPP or other system we wouldn’t see the Greens at all unless they won an electorate

    • Dave

      Look what the greens have here in Aussie, still, they have one seat too many. Storming Norman wouldn’t stand a chance here, probably why he jumped the ditch. Best news here for the green MP, Abbot is removing the carbon tax.

  • johnbronkhorst

    Cunliffe Oct 2013….12%
    Shearer Feb 2013….10%
    Goff October 2011…13.7%
    Bring back goofy!!

    • Whafe

      Go the goof that is Goff…. LOL

  • Apolonia

    Nice to see the Conservatives rising

  • Toryboy

    I wonder if it has occurred to the Labour party that no matter how many leaders they have it doesn’t change the fact it is a pretty lousy product?

    • CheesyEarWax

      Labour is like a Lada. They can change the driver all they like but its still a Lada.

      • Toryboy


      • Wine Man

        dont be too harsh Lada’s are a lot better than Labour

      • john Doe

        A lot of teachers driver Ladas.

        • Dave

          That explains a hell of a lot

  • rockape

    Just been having so much fun over at the Standard. Had to come back, sensorship alive and well,but without being the least bit offensive am now banned for life. I think it was the bit about Cunliffe only polling 12% that did it.

    • cows4me

      Good you rockape. It’s a wonder they have anyone left to comment. They’re like dogs on heat over there, if you’re not willing to sniff lefty arse you’re out the door.

      • rockape

        Do I get a star or something special against my comments on here now having suffered such humiliation”over there”.

    • Steve (North Shore)

      You’re not a virgin anymore, linda shafted you.

    • john Doe

      Haha same last week I logged in as a first timer and only managed two comments before I got a bluey!

    • Dave

      Well done Rockape, welcome to the “Stranded at the Standard club” wear it as a badge of honor.

      PS; Try logging on at work, different IP so they wont be able to tell, suggest the screen name Whales mate, or SCS’s understudy, either outa work for about 2 minutes :)

      • Bob Murphy

        Have you upset Red Alert yet?. I have, and consider it a badge of honour.

        • Dave

          absolutely. Played with them several times like a cat with a new toy, got a warning but became bored with that went all out and banned. Then, moved to Aussie. new IP, but banned again…. must log in via the mobile broadband on the business laptop that should give me another life there. Bout time Prentice etal manned up and told their regulars to harden up and win any debate with FACTS, but I suppose its just easier to ban those with facts that don’t match their fiction.

  • rockape

    The trouble with these polls,and, the reason I am quietly confident of a National win is as follows. The polls ask Nat Green or Labour and they get a pretty even split between Nats and the REST. On election the question is slightly different,it will be,do you want a National or a Labour/Green government. That will scare a number of Labour supporters Nationals way. Many Green voters are not Labour supporters and many Labour voters want oil and mining jobs put before snails. Separate they may jointly poll 47% together they will be lucky to make 40%. You do see the difference?

  • Toryboy

    An example of how badly Cunliffe is actually doing; here are the preferred PM numbers from party leaders a month or so in the job –
    Lange – Feb 1983 31%
    McClay – Feb 1985 16%
    Bolger – April 1986 22%
    Palmer – September 1989 40%
    Moore – October 1990 38%
    Clark – Feb 1994 21%
    Shipley – Dec 1997 35%
    English – Nov 2001 18%
    Brash – Feb 2004 26%
    and then Goof, Shearer.
    It is rather pathetic the Labour party flogs this dead horse – and rather pathetic they HAVE to flog this dead horse; the idea he can win is simply preposterous.

    • Toryboy

      Oh and one other thing – every Leader WITHOUT EXCEPTION – then went down in the polls from this initial honeymoon sugar rush.

      Cunliffe starts on 12% …and then turns into Jim McClay

    • Day Day

      Palmer on 40%?

    • Dave

      Tory, their issue is, he is the best they have, seriously, who else is there ?? Mr GayGuy Robertson, Mr Porn King Jones? or their joint venture leader Mr (give me my flag) Norman ?? Curryleaf is a non option, but their best shot.

  • Adolf Fiinkensein

    Funny thing is, I was only wondering this morning whether Brown’s shanigans would reflect on Labour. Well done Cam. You may well take down Cunliffe as well as Brown.

    • rrroberto

      Looks like some are moving to try and create an illusion of distance. The Standard writer who uses (mis-uses) the Micky Savage name talked about Lens “difficulties ” earlier in the saga, but a day or two ago Len had been downgraded to “philanderer”.

  • middleagedwhiteguy

    I hadn’t considered the impact on Cunliffe on the Len Brown saga. He can hardly come out against Brown as that would impact on his status on the party faithful. He can’t come out in support of Brown as he would be tainted by association. He can’t say nothing as that would not be befitting a party leader.

    He’s gone with the last option, and it’s hurting him.

    • Adolf Fiinkensein

      If he’s going to win anything in Auckland, he will be forced to disown Brown. The only question now is ‘how does he do it?’

      Brown is a gift for National.

      • JC

        Yep. And its now a fortnight since the story broke and incredibly its the Herald keeping the story alive on the online front page as it explores the (irrelevant) side issues.. not for the first time I wonder how “friendly” the media really are towards Len.


        • sheppy

          The gift that keeps on giving, excels itself!

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        “Ignore and it will go away” is trick now Adolf. Learn it and you can get away with anything….

  • middleagedwhiteguy
  • Dave

    I have said before, Labour and the unions are probably telling brown he must stay. However, Cams suggestion, that now armed with the polls, and the likelihood that Mr Brown Stain caused it, they will no doubt demand he goes, have Curryleaf announce they asked him go to for Auckland’s sake, and ride out like a knight in shining armor.

    Len, its time to go. Mr Curryleaf….. if th epolls improve after you throw Brown Stains under the bus you should be okay, otherwise Tick tock, Tick Tock Tick Tock. Yawn.

  • kiwiinamerica

    Cunliffe got a modest poll bounce courtesy of all the free publicity he got during the Labour leadership race and the fact that he’s a new face and seems to be able to string a coherent sentence together compared to Shearer. Averaging Fairfax and ONCB (ignoring the laughable Roy Morgan) sees no real breakthrough for Labour. Cunliffe has been owned in Parliament by Key and Joyce over his inaccuracies and now he’s in backtrack mode after having to promise the unions everything they want to get their vote. Owl’s observation about how such a small percentage of non government workers are unionized is pertinent here – also the government sector employs only 12% of NZ’s total workforce so Cunliffe has appealed to a small ideologically harder left activist base to win and now is saddled with all those promises. Once Key et al really starting campaigning hard against the union controlled Cunliffe and the Greens nutty polices, this gap will open up some more. It will make “show me the money” look like a gentle rebuttal.

  • TC in NZ

    I just have one thing to say…”I’m sick and tired of seeing hope die in the eyes of Labour leaders….”