We’re going to lose – Labour

Corin Dann at TVNZ is trying to  put a positive spin on what is shaping up to be a dreadful loss for Labour in Christchurch East

Labour Party President Moria Coatsworth has warned that Labour has a real fight on its hands to win the Christchurch East By-election later this month.

In a speech to the Labour party annual conference in Christchurch this morning, Ms Coatsworth reiterated that Labour lost the party vote at the last election in Christchurch East by 14 percent and that the voters in the electorate are tired.

Tired of what?

Lies?

Posturing?

CV Embellishments?

Dead Fish?

Union tail wagging the party dog?

It is generally thought that by elections are used by the electorate to send the Government a message.  With Christchurch East not going to Labour it would be a pretty good endorsement that the National-led government is doing just fine.  

However Ms Coatsworth also strayed into the policy area by calling on Labour members to rise up to the challenge of sustainability and climate change.

Ms Coatsworth described sustainability as the greatest threat to the country. She said a Labour government was needed to ensure New Zealand had a prosperous low carbon economy.

Strategic stupidity or reality?

Have the left realised they can not take any more votes off the middle, so all they can do now is cannibalise the Green Taliban?

Oh my, 2014 is going to be so much fun.  Looking forward to watching both Labour and the Greens try and convince the electorate that they are a government in waiting, will play nice together, but at the same time are at each others’ throats to ensure their party has more MPs in parliament than theyhave right now.

 

 


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  • conwaycaptain

    Pistols for two coffee for one.
    If National get the coffee then Cunliffe is a gone burger. He still will be even if it is a narrow Labour win.

    • rockape

      Not sure,one thing that assures job stability is when there isnt much alternative!

    • rrroberto

      while hoping that ChCh E does not elect a Labia member, whatever the result, Cunliffe will lead Labour into the election. There is no other leadership candidate, Robertson or Little will be hovering to pick up the pieces post election. The only possible thing which might work a bit for them is to hand over to Shane Jones to take the hit at election time, but cant see that happening

  • Col

    Yep I said that was not going to be a romp in the park for Labour, and I believe that’s why Lianne made a runner for Mayor of ChCh.
    And the Taxpayer has to pick up the bill for the by election.

  • Toryboy

    National may win Christchurch East???? is this serious?

    I am gobsmacked; I thought National were just putting up a good show, but with no serious prospect (Labour has held the seat under various names for nearly a century).

    Were they to lose ChCh East then it would be all over

    • “National may win Christchurch East???? is this serious?’

      You might say that, but I couldn’t possibly comment :)

    • Col

      You just have to look what happen to JK when he went for a walk at the Shopping Mall the other day, people coming up and saying great things about JK, that a few years ago would never have happened in the East Ward, that’s why Labour are worried.

      • Toryboy

        Yes the PM’s reception the other day was great news (although no surprise); has any polling for the by-election been done?

        • Col

          Labour thought it may have been a walk in the Park, I have heard nothing apart from what we see and read, old Curryleaf would be packing his suitcase if it went National, lets wait for the Fat Lady.

    • dyannt

      Is there still a viable population living in Christchurch East?
      Perhaps it is only the hardworking, home-owning people still sticking it out.

  • I guess it’s time to stock up on Fair Trade popcorn and organic beer in expectation of the fun next year as Labour and the Greens cannibalise one another…

    • niggly

      If Labour were genuine in their efforts to help the world’s under-privileged people scraping together better living conditions via supporting Fair Trade products (and as a bonus wish to take on the Greens’ mantle & thus gain votes) ….. it is only in their best interests to carry on the “fun” and “shenanigans” in out-competing each other to the race to the hard-left …. for it will allow us all to keep buying and buying and buying these FT popcorns etc. Endless joy for all sides and everyone is happy!

    • Kopua Cowboy

      You’re a sick man. I refuse to buy organic on principal.

      • OhopeBeachBugger

        Organic is mostly a euphemism for ‘shit’, in my book.

        • Kopua Cowboy

          Just like Fair Trade is a euphemism for “I’m a socialist wanker”?

          • I’ll remove my tongue from my cheek now…

          • Kopua Cowboy

            Ha don’t get me started… :P

        • Whanga_Cynic

          … and over-priced.

  • GregM

    Labour lost the centre a long time ago, the greens have taken hard left, so all that leaves is about 30% for them, like their poll results. I really think they are fucked.

  • leadingedge

    I’m not a Labour voter, but I doubt Christchurch East will go to National. There’s a lot of anger in the east about the post-earthquake conduct of the EQC and insurance companies. A lot of people in the east have been badly treated by EQC and insurers, and the general perception there now is that the government has failed terribly by not addressing these issues properly. I think a lot of people will be voting against the National candidate purely as a form of protest.

    Just look at the recent Christchurch City Council elections – there was a massive swing towards Labour candidates.

    • Apolonia

      With housing being the problem, Why is Moira worried about climate change?

      • sheppy

        Perhaps shes just showing the electorate where her priorities lie…
        Pretty unusual for the left to show their cards before they get to the trough!

    • SJ00

      Ok so they think National have let them down, but what do they think the alternative will be? Vote Labour and their houses will be repaired overnight? Maybe the solution is to print money so everything gets magically fixed, and guess what, you’ll fuck off the rest of the country not in Christchurch as they deal with blow out from printing money.
      The Christchurch earthquake continues to be one of the biggest insurance payouts ever. Its going to take time to sort it out. Maybe for some things are moving at the speed they want but things are moving.

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        Bro – Once Poto wins, she will sort out all issues within a week.

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      yes Poto will walk away with 75% of the votes….Lazy Doocey is wasting his time and money here…

    • Bryan

      it was not a swing to labour but a desire for a change of the old guard many of whom were burnt out from all the last three years and the consideration that Parker and the manager was an old boys network
      But time will tell that nice public window dressing will not change what has to happen for this city to go ahead. We have had massive consultation but not everyone’s ideas will be accepted and the present proposed central transport plan is a disaster as it does not allow for quick entry and departure of volume of people that only a modern

      light rail/Bus system can deliver and they want to build a stadium??

      The plains facts are

      EQC is not the Govt its a body that operates a system funded by the money we all pay as part of our insurance

      Secondly the Govt is not the insurance companies and in most other countries you would have got NOTHING and told tough luck it is an “act of God under insurance law ” we are not required to do anything.

      The biggest problem labour face is most of it’s voters have left the area and moved into other electorates because as basic homeowners the Red payout was a God send and they are better off in Rangiora,or Rolleston in new homes or better condition second hand homes.

      The last thing about their candidate is that this is not Waikato and the Maori vote is a lot smaller in Christchurch and some will vote on racial lines down here in the south that’s just the way it is the Maori presence is barely noticed, I can go a whole week and not see one

      its not racism its just the way it is

  • thor42

    Very interesting!

    IIRC, there has never been a by-election in New Zealand that the sitting government has won. The people of Christchurch East have a chance of making history.

    It should be *really* good to watch…… :)

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      This is what people call “Day dreaming”. Hell will freeze over before National wins Christchurch East bro….

  • Pissedoffyouth

    With MMP, if say National won every single electorate but Labour and Greens coalition got 60% of the vote who would be in power?

    • List MPs are added to ensure the national vote is proportionally representative. So in your scenario, a Labour/Green coalition government would probably form.

      • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

        Yes, which is what is going to happen. Not National winning all seats but the Commies and the Socialists winning 60%. The Kiwi Assure policy will win them lots of votes.

    • Michael

      If National won all 63 General Electorates it would have 63 MPs. (I’m presuming they won’t stand in the 7 Maori Seats). If National got 35% of the vote it would be entitled to 42 MPs,and no list only MPs could be added.The other 21 MPs would be called “overhang” MPs taking Parliament up to 141 MPs.

      Labour and the Greens together would have 72 MPs (60% of 120) – still a majority in the Parliament.

      The above scenario is subject to numerous variables about wasted vote, who wins a Maori seat, and the Greens getting at least 5% of the vote.

      • Pissedoffyouth

        Thanks for the explanation, that clears things up

  • Toryboy

    Funny how logic seems to have no affect on Coatsworth.

    According to Labour there is widespread poverty, Dickensian working conditions, widespread anti- National, anti-business sentitments; regions are so empty that only 17 people live between Bombay and Tawa; entire industries are disappearing.

    Add to that the apparent widespread desire for gender, ethnic and gay quotas; banning of free trade, pensions at 80, legally murdering granny to cop the inheritance money etc etc etc

    Add to that David Cunliffe being the Messiah they wrote about in the Bible.

    Put it all together and ….why would Labour be in trouble in Christchurch East?

    It must logically follow that if Labour are on the right track they will go back to the 30 consecutive elections when getting 60% of the votes in that electorate was seen as ‘close’.

    It must further logically follow that if all the things I have mentioned are untrue – literally ‘now’ is the time to fix them! haha!

    If Labour have not been sold a pup by Tim Barnett and his ex-pat 1980s UK Labour cronies – why would the by-election be more than a formality?

  • Mr_Blobby

    Apparently they have also passed a resolution that Te Roe will be compulsory on Schools. Expect that to be hidden from the Majority, the 99% that don’t give a toss about speaking Maori.

    • Alfred12

      Aaah, Labour the gift that just keeps giving!!

  • Warren Murray

    Cam must be living in some fantasy world if he really thinks Labour will lose the seat. It’s pathetic Labour spin to talk of themselves as the underdog. The best the Right can hope for is a result like the Mana by-election when Laban resigned.
    I agree there is some cannibalising of vote between Labour and its ‘allies’, but National might see the same when John Key starts having tea with preferred coalition partners. There’s no room for complacency

  • middleagedwhiteguy

    National won 4000 more party votes in Chch East last election. Given that they were fighting a strong candidate in Lianne Dalziell, with Aaron Gilmore, that is not a bad result.

    Given that Dalziell has a high profile and is seen as an effective worker, and that Gilmore was seen, correctly, as a bit of a tosser, the party vote might be a better indicator of where the electorate really is, that being the center right. Dalziell does seem to be a bit more centrist.

    Add into the mix, the selection of Poto Williams to be parachuted in from Auckland as the Labour candidate, while the National Candidate is a Canterbury resident and manager in the local district health board. This will put a few local noses out of joint.

    I would also imagine that the noise coming from the labour conference is not going to win widespread favour among middle New Zealand.

    • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

      My spies tell me Poto has already been accepted as a local by everybody….so cut out the “outsider” theory

      • GregM

        My spies tell me that apart from the Labour party apparatchiks down there, Potato is persona non grata with the voters. Hah! I say.

  • rouppe

    Carbon is not nz’s major environmental problem. Clean waterways are

    • terrynaki

      piss off

  • conwaycaptain

    All National need to do is get JK to go for a walkabout in ChCh East a few days before the election.
    I assume that Poto is part of the Maori women’s quota. Not there for quality but because she is a female and brown.

  • middleagedwhiteguy
  • conwaycaptain

    They have to know that as soon as you start saying “We are going to lose” it is a self fulfilling prophecy.

  • rockape

    I will be very surprised if Labour dont win this one. General dissatisfaction in CHCH even if it isnt warrented goes against National. National do well when voters are happy,one of the reasons Labour spend so much time spreading misery . Think of one Socialist country thats gone left when the people are happy.

  • suites

    Labour is so unpopular in Chch they just won the mayoralty

    • middleagedwhiteguy

      Dalziell won the Mayoralty, She also won the electorate, but Labour got pants in the party vote by National. There may not be as much support for Poto as there was for Dalziell.

    • Bryan

      no it was female versus male won as the old boys network seemed to have too much say and Labour is targeting local bodies as they know they are getting flogged in national politics

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    No way! Labour is sleep walking to victory in Christchurch East…just forget it pal…

  • Bryan

    its a simple choice Christchurch east Choose Labour and you join the opposition with no access to Government, Or Vote National and have access to govt for your electorate and benefit from that relationship.They are planning major development of the Red house reclaimed land to turn that into something that

    be a great recreation space for all Christchurch and East will benefit from that

    its what the govt can give the East which is more important that what the council can

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