Monday nightCap

 


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  • Ratchet

    While I’m not a fan of nuclear proliferation, I noticed in the middle of that presentation, a (perhaps) deliberate skewing of statistics. It is stated that the current acceptable risk of a nuclear accident resulting in a detonation is 1 in 1,000,000. They then compare this to the chance of a person dying in a plane crash, which is given as 1 in 40,000,000.

    The immediate reaction is: Shit! The chances of me dying in a nuclear explosion are significantly higher than dying in a plane crash.

    BUT… To make the statistic a truer comparison they should have said the chance of accident causing nuclear detonation vs. the chance of a plane crashing OR the chance of dying in a plane crash vs. the chance of dying in a nuclear detonation caused by an accident. I think that you would find the chances of dying in a plance crash would then far outstrip being vaporised in a radioactive boo-boo.

    And that, fellow readers, is why you should always read statistics with some degree of suspicion, as it is easy to pick two seemingly related statistics that give your argument punch, whereas you are really just publishing shit.

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