Conservatives continue to tout dodgy polling

At the last election Colin Craig claimed victory in Rodney off the back of his dodgy polling which was busted on this blog.

Mark Mitchell spanked him of course.

The man behind those dodgy polls was also a candidate for the Conservatives, Roger Larkins. He worked for Research First at the time.

Now the Conservatives are touting new polls, this time for Upper Harbour, where they are suggesting that Christine Rankin would do well against Paula Bennett.

Polling had indicated Rankin would do well in the proposed electorate that would wrap around the north and west of Auckland’s Waitemata Harbour.

Rankin, who until now has said she did not want to enter national politics, told the Star-Times she was “seriously considering” the request and would make up her mind after Christmas.

But Craig said Rankin’s candidacy was a “no-brainer” and he was confident she would run.

“It’s going to be a fascinating contest between two very strong, determined women,” Craig said. “The word that comes to mind is catfight.” 

Nice bit of misogyny there…but they go on…

Independent polling by Research Solutions for the Conservatives obtained by the Star-Times shows Rankin has 24 per cent support in Upper Harbour, with 20 per cent opting for “another candidate” and a large 56 per cent undecided.

Issues polling showed strong support for changes to the anti-smacking law and ending Treaty of Waitangi claims and the Maori seats – but a virtual dead heat over gay marriage and strong support for asset sales. The poll was conducted after Bennett announced she would run in the seat.

Rankin said she needed to talk to her family and her children about running against Bennett.

“I am not exactly a quiet person and I am not going to do this quietly and it will affect them.”

But she said she was tempted by the poll result. “With 50 per cent undecided, boy I could take a big percentage of that. I believe I’d run a really good campaign. I believe I’d be quite a challenge to Paula. I certainly wouldn’t do it half-heartedly. I’d give it every thing I’ve got,” Rankin said.

And who is the principal director of Research Solutions? That’s right Roger Larkins.

On top of that there is no declared sample size in the article, and given Larkins history with dodgy polling I suspect and tips to the tipline suggest that the sample size was laughably small.

So if I was Christine Rankin I’d be treading very, very carefully in basing any decision on polls of statistically dubious sample size and any research conducted by Roger Larkins. He has form.

What concerns me most is that the media continue to fall for this bogus polling touted by the Conservatives


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

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