Beware of the bunker mentality


On Thursday evening the latest Roy Morgan poll came out. Normally I don’t comment on Roy Morgan polls, for a start they aren’t a member of the Market Research Association of NZ and their poll is all over the place showing massive swings for no apparent reason.

The only reasons that I comment on Roy Morgan polls is because it is the darling of the left-wing commentators who clutch at straws these days and because they tell us that they poll mobile phones, which is yet another bugbear of the left who think the indigent classes are left out from land line polling. There is not evidence at all to suggest this is the case, yet they persist with the urban myth. That, therefore, is why I comment on Roy Morgan…because the very things that the left uses to discount results of other polls that don’t suit their narrative don’t exist in Roy Morgan polls.

So, looking at left-wing commentary since the latest Roy Morgan it has been a struggle to see anything. save for the erudite musings of Chris Trotter, other than int he comments sections of the more popular left-wing blogs or on news sites.

The one thing that is apparent though is the bunker mentality of some.

Normally the left-wing blogs will crow about the Roy Morgan, now there is nothing but silence. Greg Presland even went out of his way to write a post that declared last week a win for David Cunliffe, despite his “cluster truck” policy being panned universally all week, their manufacturing policy launch slipping by un-noticed due to releasing it late on the day before a long extended holiday weekend and continued vocal criticism of their inept and wonky social media campaign that continues to deliver cock-ups and mis-steps. No mention of the poll still despite three days having elapsed…but plenty of time to write a post as to why Chris Trotter and Kiwi in America are wrong, dead wrong, and labour really is on the up and up.

Even Lynn Prentice felt so compelled to fill the void of political commentary that he wrote a lengthy post about how the servers operate The Standard, proving once again that he is the world’s greatest sysop. For a site with so little traffic they seem to have engineered themselves something Telecom would be proud of to run their enterprise.

The bunker mentality has set in, and it is bunker mentality that really takes its toll in politics. People hunker down, they ignore observable facts and details and continue to issue stirring announcements about great victories when the reality is they are pressed on all sides.

Comments dismissing polls and commenters with spurious reasoning shows this:

Pete it was one poll taken during the royal visit, Labour and the Greens went down and the right track wrong track rating went up by a similar amount to National?s increase. Wait for the next few polls and then have the discussion. Or do you think that we should cancel the election now and just let Key get on with it.

And do you always agree with Chris or just when he backs up your world views?


Presuming it is valid, and RM does bounce around, it seems that the Royal Tour has had the desired effect ?

They learned this from Helen Clark…nothing to see here, move on. This is bunker mentality. Famously depicted in “Der Untergang” (Downfall) and now an internet meme with literally thousands?of versions, the actual situation in politics is very similar.

Once bunker mentality sets in then there is no saving that party. As the old saying goes there are none so blind than those that will not see.

The original translation of the infamous bunker scheme is worth watching…this is where the term bunker mentality comes from.

The other famous example of such mentality was the vision of the Iraqi Information Minister,?Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf, declaring day after day all the stunning victories of the Republican Guard when the reality was the unit was destroy in place by US air power.

Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf was famously nicknamed Comical Ali for his hilarious claims.

Greg Presland is fast becoming NZ’s own political Comical Ali in his unending defence of David Cunliffe.

Bunker mentality is so debilitating…when it gets tot he point when insiders are lying to the leadership about internal polls and padding results then you know they are truly in trouble, We are starting to see this already. Not a single political opinion poll in New Zealand currently has Labour on anything near 35% yet Labour is claiming their internal polling is showing that result. National’s own internal polling is showing a number similar to Roy Morgan, we know this because John Key mentioned it in parliament.

Labour is in denial, providing a classic and visible study into the effects of bunker mentality. Perhaps?they should invite Bill English along to run a workshop on how to recover from low poll ratings and a bunker mentality.