More Dodgy Polling from the Conservatives

Last election Colin Craig reckoned that his polling showed him a long way ahead of National’s Mark Mitchell. Colin got hammered with Mark winning a majority of 12,222.

Colin’s dodgy polling was essentially push polling, and gave him terrible results.

Questions included both unprompted and prompted aspects, and sought to differentiate the responses regarding party voting intentions from candidate voting intentions.  Relevant questions  included the following, in order of being asked:

1. For your party vote, have you decided who you will be voting for in the election?

2. Which party do you currently intend to vote for?

3. Have you heard of the Conservative Party?

4. Have you heard of Colin Craig?

Participants were read a brief preamble to provide context: ‘Colin Craig is the leader of the Conservative Party of New Zealand. In the Auckland mayoral election, Colin came third with over 40,000 votes’. Then asked…

5. If Colin were to stand in as a candidate in your electorate, what would be the likelihood that you would vote for Colin to be your member of parliament (on a scale of 1 = definitely; 2 = likely; 3 = neutral; 4 = unlikely and 5 = very unlikely)?

Those who identified they were neutral or unlikely to vote for Craig were asked:

6 . Who do you intend to vote for?

There were additional questions relating specifically to how awareness was generated, as well as detailed policy questions. I’ve been advised these questions are relevant to the Conservative Party’s campaign strategy, and so details can’t be released.

To say the least I was gobsmacked with this response. Not only did it confirm the conflict of interest but it exposed the highly suspect methodology used by Research First in obtaining what they euphemistically describe as a “result”.

This is nothing short of a rigged poll. They lead respondents down a garden path and even prompted them as to what the required response should have been with poor questions. The poll surely is statistically invalid, in point of fact it is complete rubbish.

Now Colin Craig’s dodgy internal polls are telling him that Garth McVicar is winning in Napier. 

Back then Colin Craig used Research First who have since parted ways with the seriously dodgy Roger Larkins.

Larkins now runs his own polling/research company and I’ll bet they were the ones who ran this poll in Napier

Knowing Larkins it is probably the same dodgy poll methodology in Napier as he used in Rodney?

The Conservatives’ plans to have Napier candidate Garth McVicar campaign around the country were scaled back after internal polling showed he was proving popular in his home electorate.

Instead of having Mr McVicar shaking hands and kissing babies across New Zealand, party leader Colin Craig has instead left him to focus his campaigning in Napier, in the hope he can win the seat.

The change in strategy was revealed by Mr McVicar at Tuesday’s Hawke’s Bay Today Meet the Candidates debate in Napier, where the six candidates vying for the seat squared off in a debate in front of an audience of almost 300 voters.

Mr McVicar, who is No3 on the Conservative Party list, told the meeting there was no truth in a rumour he had fallen out with Mr Craig.

“Colin did see the opportunity of taking me around on a national canvassing campaign as well – and I’m off to Timaru to do a bit of canvassing as well – but ultimately he did a poll in Napier and he saw the opportunity here,” Mr McVicar said.

Colin Craig tries this line every election. When he stood for mayor he claimed that polling had him ahead…he came third.

In Rodney he claimed he was ahead and Mark Mitchell rinsed him.

Garth McVicar is a top bloke, but there is no way a fly by night campaign will undermine Stu Nash’s 3 year campaign in Napier.

Nashy is a top bloke too, and he will make a good MP for Napier.

Given the Conservatives poll ratings in reputable polls it is likely that Garth McVicar will make it to parliament in any case.


– HB Today

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