God votes National. Ok, fine, centre-right

From our point of view, it’s a matter of hanging on to a win, any kind of win. ?For the left team, it’s a matter of “what do we have to do to get a break?”. ?After everything that’s gone wrong, from Dirty Politics not sticking to Key and Kim Dotcom’s big reveal becoming a big implode, what else can go wrong?

The weather.

Wild weather predicted for the weekend could discourage voters on election day, taking a toll on the centre-left vote, an expert says.

The MetService has warned of gale-force winds and driving rain for the North Island and snow for the South Island on Saturday.

If the forecast is correct, it would be the first election-day snow since 1984.

AUT social sciences lecturer Dr Kate Nicholls said the conventional wisdom, internationally and locally, was that bad weather dampened voter turnout.

And lower rates of voter participation would damage support for centre-left parties in particular.

“This could be especially damaging for Labour, given that voter turnout was at an all-time low in the 2011 election, continuing a long-term trend and Labour’s base of support is already substantially eroded,” Dr Nicholls said.

Even if the effect isn’t huge, if things are on a knife edge, as David Cunliffe claims and clings to, bad weather may just be enough to keep ten or twenty thousand lefty voters at home. ?

Victoria University political science Professor Jack Vowles said bad weather would deter some people from voting.

But the number would be small in proportion to overall voter turnout.

MetService meteorologist Elke Louw said Aucklanders should prepare for some severe wind gusts and rain, with a maximum temperature of 15C that would feel more like 11C or 12C.

There was a chance the wind could reach warning or watch level, but forecasters would not know until closer to the time.

“We would recommend not to pack away the winter jumpers just yet.”

Saturday’s weather

Auckland: Morning rain, then showers. Strong gusty westerlies. High 15.
Whangarei: Morning rain then showers. Strong gusty westerlies. H 16.
Hamilton: Morning rain then showers. Strong gusty northwesterlies. H 14.
Tauranga: Rain developing, then showers. Strengthening westerlies. H 15.
Taupo: Morning rain, then showers. Strong gusty northwesterlies. H 11.
Napier: Brief rain at times. Strong gusty northwesterlies. H 16.
Wellington: Rain at times. Gusty northerly. H 13

And let’s not forget:

Ecclesiastes 10:2 ESV
A wise man’s heart inclines him to the right, but a fool’s heart to the left.


-?Nikki Papatsoumas, APNZ, Metservice – via NZ Herald, Bible