Labour is in trouble, Auckland hates them

The age old refrain in politics is “If you win Auckland, you win Wellington” has become a truism.

Political parties that ignore Auckland do so at their peril and are unlikely to make much inroads into gaining the treasury benches.

That is why the Greens put so much effort into Auckland’s leafy suburbs trying to convince voting mothers that the planet is in peril.

Labour traditionally had solid support in South Auckland and West Auckland. But that support is at risk.

North of the bridge is solid blue all the way to Cape Reinga, and Labour stranglehold in the south ends at Manurewa with Judith Collins rock solid in Papakura.

Fairfax has been polling in Auckland and Labour has problems.

With the leaders focusing on the vote-rich Auckland seats in the last two weeks of the campaign, the two most recent Stuff.co.nz-Ipsos polls showed 56 per cent of Aucklanders backed National against just over 50 per cent in the rest of the country.

There was very little variation among Labour voters, with about 25 per cent supporting the party inside and outside Auckland.

The only other major difference was for the Greens with just 10 per cent support in Auckland but 13.5 per cent across the rest of the country.   

The sample sizes for the minor parties was too small to draw many conclusions, although all tended to be slightly more popular outside Auckland with the exception of ACT which had 1.2 per cent in Auckland and only 0.1 per cent elsewhere, perhaps reflecting its base in Epsom.

Pollsters Ipsos also complied data from the last seven polls showing a stark ethnic difference in party support.

It showed that National had far more than its overall 52.6 per cent support among Chinese voters (69.1 per cent) while Labour only had the backing of 15 per cent of Chinese voters, against an overall score of 26.1 per cent.

Labour was strong, though, among Pasifika voters (65.9 per cent against 15.8 for National) and among Maori with 36.6 per cent against 25.6 per cent for National.

Those voters who identified as Indian gravitated to the two main parties with 54 per cent supporting National and 37 per cent for Labour. Just 4.7 per cent said they backed the Greens, with virtually no support from the Indian community for any other party in our sample of more than 7000 voters.

There was a time when Pasifika voters would have been in the 90s for Labour. Every percentage loss from that vote for Labour spells doom in attempting to gain the treasury benches.

If you can’t win the party vote in Auckland then the reality is you can’t govern.

At 25% in Auckland Labour’s electoral prospects are dim.

 

– Fairfax


Do you want:

  • Ad-free access?
  • Access to our very popular daily crossword?
  • Access to daily sudoku?
  • Access to Incite Politics magazine articles?
  • Access to podcasts?
  • Access to political polls?

Our subscribers’ financial support is the reason why we have been able to offer our latest service; Audio blogs. 

Click Here  to support us and watch the number of services grow.

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.

Tagged:
52%